paying for acthar has always been an issue. mnk started addressing the issue from day one it acquired Q (education, trials to collect more evidence, etc). but keep in mind that acthar is an FDA approved drug and it's usually used as the last resort of treatment. as such, it's very hard for insurance not paying for it.
note acthar is still growing. mnk rev'ed growth rate. long.
MNK is still very solid. the low p/e may stay that way for another two quarters, however.
last ER was not bad to me. the only rev down was the ACTHAR growth from "high single to low double" to "middle single to low double". but somehow (still don't understand) the street was spooked. or maybe it's all a show by shorts.
the float is very tight. any buying will trigger a run up. but i am not sure who's buying in the near future. shorts now are in a much comfortable zone, so they may not recover in a hurry.
buying out is always a possibility. but I won't use it as a strategy.
what catalyst do you see in the near future? would really appreciate any input on this.
the last few days we saw a drop of pps of 20% range. the volume for such a big drop is certainly much higher than usual. but who's selling? institutions? funds? retailers? or shorts?
inst are required to file with sec. so we should see soon;
funds can be the main sellers, if they follow certain rating agency;
retailers? many can be pushed out. but i doubt they are the main sellers;
shorts? certainly a good possibility. we'll see short interest numbers in a month.
what's your take?
i am no techie. but looking at the daily pps movement, I cannot help but feel the daily pps is controlled by traders: they dump the shares in the morning, and buy them back before eob. the pps kind reflects the activities.
once in a while, somebody would come in a take a scoop, that's when the pps has a hike (2% to 5%), balancing out further decline in pps. we might see this pattern for a while.
just want to say thank you. useful information in this domain is hard to come by, and we individuals (longs in particular) just have to help out each other. sharing information, analysis, etc, are ways for this purpose.
i am not a big fan of conspiracies, even though i don't know how to explain everything i see and hear. regarding the analysts behavior, you've got a good point. but how do you explain the trash talking by some of the analysts? Yee's consistent misleading statements about the company (facts)?
do you sense that the Pharmasset study is more on "get the best result" or "let's which combo works"? Note that I am more from an end product/patient benefit perspective, not a scientific discovery/validation. My hope is always a product that can be marketed that benefits patients. (complete) cure or not is less important.
"MONARCH Study is intended to be a study of various dosing regimens and combinations. It is quite similar to the approach taken by Pharmasset in the HCV field."
Does the above indicates that the focus in really about optimization instead of effectiveness? of course there could be of different levels (70-30 vs. 50-50 in emphasis). Could somebody in the fields comment?
and what about the "approach taken by Pharmasset"? I did a search and could not find the focus of the approach. the answer might shed lights on my first question.
it could be very exciting if what I was reading into is true.
by the way, the quote is quoted as from the conference call by the SA article. I assume it's accurate. but I'll check it later.
maybe. but the company might be thinking of
increase the reach to the patients;
increase prescriptions via other indications;
adjust the price
from their web site:
"Therakos, Inc. is an immunotherapy company focused on providing innovative treatment platforms that harness the power of each individual patient’s immune system to fight disease. We are the global leader in autologous immune cell therapy delivered through extracorporeal photopheresis (ECP)."
it appears that they've got on treatment, Therakos Immunotherapy. not sure if there is anything else in the pipeline.
this is just a raid. see this (our old friend):
Retrophin, Inc. (RTRX) -NasdaqGM Watchlist
36.01 Up 4.27(13.45%) 12:20PM EDT - Nasdaq Real Time Price
Add to Portfolio
Prev Close: 31.74
Bid: 36.22 x 100
Ask: 36.26 x 200
1y Target Est: 47.33
Next Earnings Date: N/A
Day's Range: 31.63 - 37.04
52wk Range: 7.85 - 37.04
Avg Vol (3m): 495,916
Market Cap: 1.26B
P/E (ttm): 210.18
it makes no sense.
"we anticipate long term that Acthar will be growing in the mid-single to low-double-digit range over the next couple years".
is it justified to have such a drop in valuation for a rev from "high-single to low-double-digit range" to "mid-single to low-double-digit range"? what else is the street basing their reaction? MNK's current valuation does not seem to be based on very high growth anyway, given the low p/e or peg.
there might be other reasons behind the scene. but those are kind of independent, so should be reflected in the ongoing business/pps performance.
with all due respect, i am not sure how you come up with the $40 pps. but we'll see.
I know i am mostly in the dark in terms of scripts, and what not. but I don't think the Q has run its course yet, far from it. And I am assuming there is no 2015 rev down (i did not listen to the cc. the damn thing needs flash, and i've got rid of it). if that's the case, I'd say it's a positive (remember, the earnings were reved up in the last cc).
anyway, we'll see by the end of the year. by the way, picked up a few 2017 calls.