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Radian Group Inc. Message Board

normboyz 2 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 6, 2015 4:24 PM Member since: Jul 28, 2003
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  • Reply to

    Derek Elder buys shares, Time to buy?

    by soccerboy496 Feb 2, 2015 3:30 PM
    normboyz normboyz Feb 6, 2015 4:24 PM Flag

    Differing opinions: that is what makes a market.

    When I was long, there were some hedge funds that took sizable positions and pressured management into establishing the dividend at .06 and later increasing it to .12. They have since left the name, as I have.

    Interestingly, what gave me the opportunity to sell in the $8's was a stock promoter, Jonathon Ledbed, who latched onto CCUR for a while. Between the dividend raises and Ledbed, that got CCUR to $9. Been a slow bleed ever since. Dividend yield increase has not helped put in a floor.

    Sounds like Elder may be a good guy with good intentions, but that does not necessarily equate with success or results.

    I won't hang around and keep posting, because if I did, CCUR owners would be wondering why. I have made my point. Good luck and I hope I am wrong and you can profit from it.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Derek Elder buys shares, Time to buy?

    by soccerboy496 Feb 2, 2015 3:30 PM
    normboyz normboyz Feb 6, 2015 2:51 PM Flag

    Soccerboy,

    I fortunately got out of CCUR when it had an $8 handle. Was in the stock for 2-3 years before that.

    No position in CCUR, even with the attractive 8+% dividend. This company pretty has pretty much treaded water for years. With the consolidation of cable MSO's, CCUR unfortunately does not have much in the way of bargaining power. Company periodically gets small lifts when there is an occasional large order from Time Warner or JCOM. This happens too infrequently to get excited, as the downdrafts are just as periodic.

    Cash seems to fluctuate between $25 million to $30 million. Being at the lower end of the range, if it dips below $25 million, I would be very concerned with the future sustainability of the .12 dividend. It could be cut.

    I would be concerned about CCUR's future sales, given the pending merger of Comcast and Time Warner (a big client). If and when this merger occurs, CCUR will probably get squeezed as Comcast can go back and forth and negotiate between CCUR and CSCO.

    As far as your concerns with transparency and Q & A's, this company is always tight lipped. Has always been that way. CCUR's board of directors have a core group of senior guys who always get reappointed. The company never gives any future guidance.

    The business is maturing. No growth prospects. Those deals you mention in your posts are most likely small potatoes. CCUR is in a slow growth niche market.

    In these times, there definitely are other public companies out there with huge opportunity for hyper-growth (social media and biotech come to mind). This stock is a lost opportunity cost. The dividend looks comforting, but is probably a mirage.

    Best of luck to you. (NO, I am not short!)

    Sentiment: Sell

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