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Baytex Energy Corp. Message Board

normey 3 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 8, 2015 11:58 PM Member since: Dec 5, 2000
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  • Reply to

    $.72 - $.74 Range

    by isthislega1 Mar 6, 2015 9:10 AM
    normey normey Mar 8, 2015 11:58 PM Flag

    I will, just like a dog marks posts :)

    On a serious note, why $.72 to $.74? Are you calling a bottom? I that a closing prediction for some point in time? It doesn't seem to be a trading range guess. Just curious what you want to have marked down (without joking about it).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    3 reasons for upswing

    by reddywilling Mar 2, 2015 6:38 PM
    normey normey Mar 8, 2015 11:52 PM Flag

    I think the pilot plant is a 3rd party (or two) in South Carolina. I had thought they had some manufacturing in MA (specifically Lowell) but I was wrong (or right in a very small way but for any reasonable scale at all the production is coming out of their contract manufacturing in I believe SC).

    I don't know what that (those) facilities can scale up to or even if the reason why they abandoned the small initial plant they were pursuing. The Honeywell announcement is pretty interesting here though in that I don't see why Honeywell would go exclusive with MBLX in compostable micro bed beauty products unless there is some clear path to scale production. What that is (something like antibioticos, some ability to significantly expand contract production in SC facilities, JV with Honeywell to build something, taking over some unused built capacity somewhere, etc) I don't know and it #$%$ me off it isn't both known and disclosed. But, I really doubt Honeywell announces hitching its cart to MBLX without MBLX having a plan to produce that Honeywell agrees with.

    And while Antibioticos had a lot going on for staff and factory capabilities being tightly aligned with MBLX needs (fermentation + recovery), I wish we'd just think of that one as a dead clusterF. Every time it pops back up in discussions here there seems to be no hint that MBLX has a reasonable chance to revive it.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    3 reasons for upswing

    by reddywilling Mar 2, 2015 6:38 PM
    normey normey Mar 3, 2015 11:16 PM Flag

    If I were short the game changers that would terrify me include

    1) deep money partnership that could form a jv, build out a factory, or function as a possible owner. (Honeywell could be scary here, but others fit the bill as well)
    2) MBLX had claimed it was in multiple pilots that they hoped to convert to clients by end of Q1. As I recall the to most hinted about were in different ares of pvc manufacturing. With a pretty big trade show this month in Orlando there is a chance they may want to release big news to get attention beyond Honeywell. Regardless if the pvc clients turn out to be construction siding, deck material, pipes, industrial carpet, or wire shielding...the volume requirements of the clients will be sizable. Just like Honeywell, you have to assume there is plan for production that makes sense if big clients are named.
    3) speaking of which any large production plan announced changes assumptions on demand. It's been my guess that MBLX had hoped to figure out some form of larger production partnership with funding and the late highly expensive funding was a result of failing to get what they wanted done. But failure might not be a permanent result. Honeywell and a few PVC related clients of size might convince whoever I assume they were working with to move forward.
    4) really wondering the size of the latex coating market could be for them. Any sales there of size change things.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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