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ConocoPhillips Message Board

norris_3845 1949 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 15, 2013 7:16 PM Member since: Dec 3, 1997
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  • Reply to

    BP:StockTA: Says: Very Bullish...

    by lipitor_pfizer Jan 15, 2013 3:51 PM
    norris_3845 norris_3845 Jan 15, 2013 7:16 PM Flag

    Oil in the US is north of $93/bbl and natural gas is north of $3.40. hard to see how BP doesn't make a pile of money at these prices. However, I took a big position when BP dropped to $40 a share. And, so far, it has not done as well as I thought. Still, I believe that $50 is not too far off.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • With current oil prices north of $93/bbl it is hard to see how COP doesn't make a pile of money. NG is now north of $3.40. These are very bullish.

  • Reply to


    by subduded2000 Dec 11, 2012 6:52 PM
    norris_3845 norris_3845 Dec 30, 2012 4:49 PM Flag

    Really? With earnings less than 1.50? You are postulating a P/E of 26 for a mature company like this in a slow economy? I think not

    Sentiment: Sell

  • norris_3845 by norris_3845 Dec 19, 2012 1:15 PM Flag

    I bought this back in July when it dipped below $55. It is now time to sell. I have bought and sold this for some time. It is very erractic. It will dip again. That will time to buy.

  • norris_3845 by norris_3845 Nov 10, 2012 4:04 PM Flag

    I have been pretty negative on ARLP after the election. But, I am reading a few things that are making me reconsider. Natural Gas prices are now up over $3.50/MMBTU. Furthermore, the number of active rigs continues to drop. Basically, the current price of natural gas doesn't support enough drilling to keep the price low.

    So, what does this mean? At $3.50/MMBTU, a coal of ton replacement will cost almost $90. This is quite a bit more than the current price of coal. Furthermore, it is likely that natural gas prices will go up. So, the economics continue to increase in the favor of coal.

  • norris_3845 by norris_3845 Nov 9, 2012 11:52 AM Flag

    Coal has obviously dropped after the election. For companies like ARLP, this makes sense. They are predominantly based in American and the EPA is going to continue the war on coal. But, it is a war on American coal. BTU is predominantly an international based company. The EPA's impact on them is going to be marginal. I, therefore, think the drop in BTU is irrational panic selling. I have been buying.

  • norris_3845 norris_3845 Nov 7, 2012 11:47 AM Flag

    Wait. The EPA will drive this stock down to $50 pretty soon. You can pick it up then.

  • Reply to

    Near term future for Coal

    by norris_3845 Oct 23, 2012 1:03 AM
    norris_3845 norris_3845 Oct 26, 2012 1:51 PM Flag

    I really do not understand this comment. If the EPA makes it too costly to burn coal this isn't going to cause a shift to Illinois coal, rather it is going to cause a shift to gas.

  • norris_3845 by norris_3845 Oct 23, 2012 1:03 AM Flag

    I sold my ARLP position at $65 and bought back in when it dipped below $60. Here is my thinking:

    Natural gas is the main displacer of coal in the US. about six months ago, natural gas was about $2.15/mm btu. Today, it has risen to $3.45. Appalachian coal is about $65/ton. Given 12,500 btu/ton this means that a ton will generate 25 million BTUs. Those, the raw cost is about $2.60/mm btu. However, add to this shipping and the coast of a scrubber and a baghouse and our cost for coal is probably in the $3 to $3.20 per million btu range. Thus, natural gas is now more than coal, but only slightly. The gas business is going to push hard for LNG plants to raise the price of gas because fracking is expensive and is difficult to maintain at current prices. Thus, I believe natural gas is going to rise and make coal more competitive.

    However, the real problem with coal is political. The EPA is waging an effective war against coal by making it difficult for utilities to burn it. So, the future of coal is dependent upon who controls the EPA. If Romney wins, bet the house on coal. If Obama wins, not so much. So, right now I have a position, but not a huge one. If I think Romney wins, I go big into ARLP.

  • Reply to

    I sold

    by norris_3845 Aug 13, 2012 9:52 AM
    norris_3845 norris_3845 Sep 24, 2012 11:16 AM Flag

    you are assuming rationality. If the government was rational it would let the market sort out what the best energy form we should use. The EPA has determined that coal is "dirty" and it is working on that assumption.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • norris_3845 by norris_3845 Aug 17, 2012 11:52 AM Flag

    I have been a trader the last six months. When something gets low enough, I buy it. When it goes up a little I sell it. I like ABB under $16. I liked BP under $40. Even at $42, I like BP (it has been trashed by the market, somewhat deservedly, but the market over-reacts). I liked Joy under $54.

    There is too much uncertainity to be a longterm investor. Europe looks like it is going to be in a long recession. Frankly, till the euro goes, I don't see Europe as attractive. In the US, we have a mountain of taxes & regulations coming. Till that is resolved, the US is going nowhere. So, I make small trades, write covered calls, and try to eek out a small profit.

  • norris_3845 by norris_3845 Aug 15, 2012 5:06 PM Flag

    I grew up in Michigan and worked early in my career in the auto factories (before I got my engineering degree). It was obvious that the UAW called the tune through strikes and manipulation of the work rules. All that extra cost got passed to the consumer. The big three were ripe for the japanese and the japanese took it to them. Truthfully, they have never recovered.

    CAT saw this and when the UAW decided that they were going to run them like the big three, CAT shut down their plants before they would let it happen. Today, on international construction sites you see CAT but no other US company. Just recently the CAW decided they were going to run the Canadian operations and CAT shut them down rather than let that happen. And, now, they have smacked the UAW again. Good for them - they will survive.

  • Reply to

    TSO to Buy BP's Refininery 266b/d

    by sunbreast1 Aug 13, 2012 8:59 AM
    norris_3845 norris_3845 Aug 13, 2012 9:57 AM Flag

    Yes, TSO is getting a 266 K bpd refinery for a little over a $1 billion. Very cheap.

  • norris_3845 by norris_3845 Aug 13, 2012 9:52 AM Flag

    I sold my ARLP today. I think this is a good exit price ($65). If I knew that Obama was going to loose I would stay in. But, as it is now, Obama's epa is killing coal. Sooner or later that hits ARLP bigtime.

  • Reply to

    Holy Side Step - Batman

    by tondog9070 Jul 24, 2012 11:46 AM
    norris_3845 norris_3845 Jul 30, 2012 1:56 PM Flag

    yes, ARLP is probably the best in the industry. However, they have not truly side stepped the problem. ARLP is now under $60 and just a few months ago it was above $80.

  • Reply to

    I'm out

    by norris_3845 Jul 27, 2012 2:19 PM
    norris_3845 norris_3845 Jul 29, 2012 3:33 PM Flag

    I have started to unwind several positions. Europe is a mess. The US has 1.5% GDP growth, and no one has resolved the tax cliff coming. It is even possible that Obama wins and the war on business is cranked up. I am going to go about 50% in cash and wait. ABB is the weakest of the bunch so it goes first.

  • norris_3845 by norris_3845 Jul 27, 2012 2:19 PM Flag

    I jumped in when ABB dropped below $16. I sold today at $17.50. I made about $1.90 for a short term gain. Good. If it drops down below $16, I will buy again.

  • norris_3845 by norris_3845 Jul 6, 2012 3:40 PM Flag

    When Joy dropped below $55 today, I had to buy. I just think that under $55 this is a wonderful company. Low p/e, good profitability. Sooner or latter we will new production at mines and Joy will profit from it. If you think longer than a week, Joy at $55 is a good deal.

  • Reply to

    Lower oil prices are here to stay

    by longbasherone Jun 20, 2012 5:41 PM
    norris_3845 norris_3845 Jul 1, 2012 5:26 PM Flag

    I work in the oil business and I can tell you that natural gas wells are being capped and marginal oil projects are going on hold. Big projects in which significant money has already been spent will be finished. But, not new ones. So, oil prices will correct because supply will go down. I think it will take about a year.

  • Reply to

    Help! I bought 3000 shares at 29

    by movieman.movieman Jun 6, 2012 10:24 AM
    norris_3845 norris_3845 Jun 6, 2012 10:26 AM Flag

    sell. everyone makes a mistake.

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