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Linn Energy, LLC (LINE) Message Board

norrishappy 679 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 33 minutes ago Member since: Apr 24, 2002
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  • But according to J Jackschemer, Duncan being misdiagnosed is proof of at least 'system racism' of inferior care.

    Truth is the emergency room would have went into level one protection and containment protocol if Ebola crossed any ones mind. A good reason for this not happening is if a patient believed he had or could have Ebola, he would say. Given just how deadly it is. Certainly medical staff is not going to provide an examination then go home to their families, if there was any thought of Ebola.

    The primary failure was the character of Mr. Duncan. The structural racism is Obama not limiting flights from the plague areas. Understanding all this screening would not have stopped Mr Duncan, even now. Further that an immigrant from these countries is most likely to live in one of our color rich neighborhoods of a big city.

    Years into Obamacare and the emergency rooms are still over capacity? So the primary reason for Obamcare was? Racism?

    The fact that our medical system failed, is a failure of our CDC bureaucracy. Rather than use a science based reductionist method to improve and correct, JJ tosses systemic racism into our community noetic. Negative emotions rather than solutions.

    There has been a systemic and infectious bureaucratic failure in our inner cities. One which was not corrected by America now spending more money per child on education than any other country.

    I would wager the color rich American community Mr. Duncan put at risk would like a flight ban and school choice. Which is exactly why JJ needs well meaning 'activist government' people. Made useful dolts by their emotions like Ms. Powers and Mr. Williams.

    Clearly the hubris driven bureaucracy does not understand Ebola or health workers would not be infected.
    Long tail swan events ( not black swan ) occur because the risk is not seen and understood? No, it is the lack of competence driven by hubris in the bureaucracy. Barmy Franks believed he could fix subprime mortgages too.

  • norrishappy norrishappy Oct 11, 2014 9:14 AM Flag

    Willie the key drag on exports has been Obama's irrational abuse of power.

    If Obama stopped the abuse it would be a rational free market competition and something predictable. SOmething which would then be factored into the future markets.

    If the Republicans take the Senate they will have the ability to greatly diminish Obama's abuse of regulatory power. BY putting bills on Obama's desk the American people support by large majorities. Like XL and expressing not just ng export but also investment in ethane, refining and chemicals.

    It is very unfortunate O'Connell will the Senate leader. He should step aside for the good of American but he probably will not. Still necessary as Reid is doing massive damage.

  • norrishappy norrishappy Oct 11, 2014 9:03 AM Flag

    Willie

    SA is nothing like a banker to OPEC. SA holds the dominate position in an oligopoly.
    Ability to quickly and materially increase or decrease supply
    SA cost of tipping is something mind boggling like $2 a barrel
    SA is third in the world for currency reserves
    SA has little national debt

    OPEC can not influence the speed of either American of Canadian oil production growth except by price. After all, even Obama's powerful abuse of EPA and other bureaucracy levels forcing high extreme levels of uncertainty has not been enough to stop production growth. It is true however suppressing capital investment in refining capacity and export has slowed the rate of growth.

    What the oil markets are really locked on is Obama delusional politics and therefore policy being the catalyst for a worldwide recession. Which weakens all of SAs tools.

    Just because our Fed has been adept and lucky with radical manipulation of interest rates and debasing the currency to avoid deflation does not mean this 'short term' emergency measures; to save our economy from Obama/Reid policy delusions, are a fully controlled process.

    Anyways $80 oil would be highly stimulative to the American economy. the magnitude of the benefit goes to working class Americans so the savings go to other necessary consumption. Which is exactly why Walmart is up.

    As for ngls it has declined as a share of production. Export capacity for ethane/propane/ butane continues to increase. EPD entry into product tankers will surely facilitate the speed in growth. Most especially for ethane.

    No one knows exactly how a price driven decline in American oil production will decrease the supply of ng and all ngls.

    The exposure is the 50% to 60% hedging on oil last reported. Along of course with lower ngls prices. Which is why the upcoming call is very important.

  • norrishappy norrishappy Oct 10, 2014 7:22 PM Flag

    Excellent post. But the high yield would stop the drilling and play out the shale well against the hedges.

    Remember the oil Gas path just went through near death. Folks drilled like crazy trying to make it up in volume. Then ran to ngls which were also saturated. The one big thing LINE management stepped in rather than avoided.

    I would not be surprised to see some rigs come off the Bakken at $90. BUt at this point this is not something SA can put back in the bottle again.

    Big call again. To bas Sand is not around to provide field activity.

  • Many members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries need oil prices to average way above the current Brent crude oil price of $89 per barrel to balance their books. They have ratcheted up annual spending since the Arab Spring in 2011—and rely heavily on oil-export receipts for income.

    Even Saudi Arabia’s finances are getting tighter. It needs oil to average $93 per barrel to stay in the black, Deutsche Bank DBK.XE -2.37% estimates. But with gross government debt at only 2.7% of gross domestic product in 2013, according to the IMF, the kingdom can suffer budget pain much more easily than its OPEC peers.

    Not to mention third in the world in just currency reserves. Before we get to the massive investment portfolio.

    It is Shia Iran and Shia Iraq which really need high prices.

    Last time OPEC dared play chicken with SA was Clinton. $10 oil. Control can always be lost.

  • Reply to

    Line to cut distribution

    by susanhenderson988 Oct 10, 2014 2:04 PM
    norrishappy norrishappy Oct 10, 2014 3:16 PM Flag

    " Why? Because actual cash flows don't matter here. They have a thing called "distributable cash flow" or "DCF" as longs will tell you -- which basically means cash flows minus "growth capital" expenditure."

    No it is cash flow less the capital necessary to sustain cash flow. Not growth capital.

  • Market Realist Mayur Sontakke

    "We briefly discussed the rail connectivity issue in the last part of the series. Rail connectivity, especially out of the Powder River Basin, has been poor since last winter. It has been poor for three reasons:

    Clogging of the network due to a backlog
    Competition from other commodities for shipments
    Insufficient infrastructure and manpower
    These issues are explained in detail in Market Realist series, “Must-know: US coal regions and producers with the best prospects.” With winter coming, utilities are looking to stock up on coal. However, rail connectivity issues are preventing shipments. As a result, utilities are looking elsewhere for coal."

    It is easy to forget corn ethanol is such nasty defective corrosive and explosive stuff that it almost always gets pulled around by trains. So thanks to Obama not following the RFS law, 10% of our gasoline supply is clogging the railroads. Farmers unable to get their corn crop to markets can in reality thank corn ethanol rather than oil.

    Our coal miners can not only be unjustly punished by illegal and unscience progressive lawlessness. Nope, then something wholly defective and therefore completely illegal like corn ethanol can award their jobs to foreigners.

    Please fellow Americans, these Progressives can not help themselves so they do not stop. Just like Detroit.
    To all corruption, irrationality and yes real structural racism they just say Social Justice. I deserve this, what ever it is.

  • Unlike the subprime mortgage implosion which was detonated by Pelosi's block any response to exploding oil prices by shutting down our Congress, AIG really was a massive failure of regulation.

    AIG was running around underwriting everything with no risk management. If Herb really did not support it he could always have sold.

    So Jon was actually funny with correct facts. Really good segment.

    Does Jon realize a sudden lucid condition or does he go to the doctor to get a check up. Can not be easy to make such a fine living as an irrational.

  • Reply to

    Oil down - starbucks coffee up -go figure

    by hrbart Oct 10, 2014 12:00 PM
    norrishappy norrishappy Oct 10, 2014 12:13 PM Flag

    Progressives already have enough weird primitive fundamentalist secular beliefs.

    If coffee cost more as a bio-fuel, they will be all for it.

    So please do not fed the Progressive delusions. Enough already.

  • norrishappy by norrishappy Oct 10, 2014 12:06 PM Flag

    Yes there is a possibility management did not put the hedges on the new oil assets. But that would be breaking the business model.

    NGLs are not effectively hedged as it is not possible. But it has been reduced at a component of production.

    A drop to $80 will slow drilling. Most producers do not fully hedge and generally no more than a year. That is the nature of the big E little p business. Plus the industry has been very careful to remain as flexible as possible.

    Few things are more stimulative to the American consumer and therefore economy than declining gasoline prices. As usual, Americans were choosing to use the radical increase in MPG to buy larger cars. We might even really start driving more. Which goes hand in hand with shopping.

    It is the American consumer who pulls the world economy along.

    No surprise Progressive believe higher gasoline prices is what the world must have.

    How long SA would tolerate $80 oil is another factor.

    Any ways LINE is not cvx. BUt at these prices the risks are more than all in. Getting silly now.

    While the number of natural gas-directed drilling rigs is particularly low right now, gas production continues rising, and is currently up 5% year-over-year. One key reason for the gas production boost is the significant increase in natural gas reserves and production associated with tight oil drilling and production.

    Production of associated gas has been growing in those areas of the country where tight oil production has also been growing because tight oil production requires the presence of natural gas to drive liquids to the wellbore.
    The importance of tight oil drilling and production on natural gas supply is further illustrated by the 103% increase in Lower 48 natural gas reserves associated with oil, which increased from 21.9 trillion cubic feet Tcf at year-end 2007 to 44.5 Tcf at year-end 2012.

    Yes American natural gas production was up 7% last year. Mostly from associated oil production.

  • norrishappy norrishappy Oct 10, 2014 10:57 AM Flag

    Willie everything is getting crush except the most stable defensives.

    Package foods, consumer basic and interestingly Walmart.

  • Reply to

    I'm Not Sure What People Are Thinking!

    by sandra888us Oct 10, 2014 9:10 AM
    norrishappy norrishappy Oct 10, 2014 10:09 AM Flag

    Instability is the fruit of Progressive Obama rule by negative emotions.

    What Americans on the boards are most concern with is collecting the distribution. At least until Obama retires and American have the good common sense not to elected another corrupt progressive like H. Clinton.

    The challenges America faces are not extraordinary or even unusual. Only Obama utter ineffectiveness makes it so.

    We have energy independence in our grasp. We have all the discount coal and natural gas our economy can use and a massive competitive advantage.
    Corporate tax rates can be lowered to 15% by simply eliminating all the Progressive corruption and favors.
    Ending corn ethanol mandates will relieve tremendous economic and national security risk and therefore uncertainty. Not to mention by increasing MPG effectively lower gasoline prices by 5% to 7%.

    None of this is rocket science. If dementia Reid allowed a vote all would pass with bipartisan majorities.

    Of course the Progressive politics of artificial constriction of the American energy supply is exactly what empowers Putin and ISIS.

    None of this is complex. As usual the majority common sense of the American people is correct.

    If only Obama was not a Progressive religion fundamentalist. A Clinton would do the right thing and follow our judgement. Even if it was all for his personal vainglorious edification.

    Heaven help America if we elect Chicken feed millionaire Benghazi Hillary. So corrupt, inept and reality inexperienced.

  • Reply to

    Wyoming sweet crude spot price -$71/BO

    by rkymtgeo Oct 10, 2014 8:41 AM
    norrishappy norrishappy Oct 10, 2014 9:56 AM Flag

    Now Willie,

    The primary determinate of refiner crack spreads is currently the Brent WTI spreads.

    There is nothing new in large localized discounts for wells not well served by infrastructure or too sour for the older localized refiners.

    Diesel is the prize of the export market. Heavier oil can be manipulated to a slightly better crack toward diesel.

    VLO specifically has developed their sourcing with tanker cars and line capacity. Also their state of the art refineries can handle anything.

    Retail prices are stickier down than up. BUt as gasoline inventory is pretty high, the natural spread will translate into pricing rapidly.

    So of course localized discounts on American oil does not prove it will help crack spreads. Perhaps for a best in class company like VLO. BUt what matters further than the Brent-WTI spread? Did the stranded oil discount increase rather than it existed.

    Why do you force yourself to live in the Progressive dim, cold and flat under world where human reason flees for the light.

    If you gave up the daily tantrums and attending petty snarking you would have plenty of time to learn and improve yourself. It is a choice. A choice only you make for yourself in the age of information.

  • Most notable, and disconcerting, was a remark Mr. Harper made there about the United States: “We know that the United States is unlikely to be a fast-growing economy for many years to come,”

    Those nice and polite Looneys said that.

    This isn’t just talk. In recent weeks, news has emerged that the Canadians have found a startling alternative to the Obama Keystone XL pipeline refusal: They are going to build a pipeline from the oil sands in Alberta and Saskatchewan to refineries in Saint John, New Brunswick, on the Atlantic Ocean.

    Hopefully the Republicans get that dementia mad Reid out of the power he is abusing to shut our Senate in and down.

    First Bill on Obama's desk is XL approval
    Next Bill is the Clean Air Bill did not provide a Progressive mythical co2 law for it to enforce.
    Next is expressing export approvals for ng export.
    Then comes Obamacare hidden subsidies driving the trillion dollar cost overruns.

    Processing capacity for ngls and ethane specifically are not being made due to Obama lawless and flat earth unscience EPA. Unfortunately backed up by rule of man Progressive appointed judges who are imposing their GW religion.

  • Reply to

    Wyoming sweet crude spot price -$71/BO

    by rkymtgeo Oct 10, 2014 8:41 AM
    norrishappy norrishappy Oct 10, 2014 9:12 AM Flag

    Willie dead wrong again.

  • By RUSSELL GOLD and ERIN AILWORTH

    Weakening oil prices could put a crimp in the U.S. energy boom. At $90 a barrel and below, many hydraulic-fracturing projects start to become uneconomic, according to a recent report by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. While fracking costs run the gamut, producers often break even around $80 to $85.

    Some U.S. oil fields, including the Eagle Ford Shale and Permian Basin in Texas, would remain attractive for drillers even at much lower oil prices. An analysis by Robert W. Baird & Co. said prices could drop to $53 a barrel in certain parts of the Eagle Ford and still be profitable to drill.

    It would take a sustained decline in prices to make companies cut back, some experts say. Earlier this week, Houston energy investment bank Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. said that while falling commodity prices would cause its clients to question their plans for next year, it was “too early to hit the panic button.”

    I am not so sure. Last time oil piled up in American and prices dropped the adjustment was rapid.

    Our refiners are in maintenance mode. So through put to international markets is down.

    What a great time for the Obama EPA to follow the RFS Law and cut the corn ethanol mandates.
    Let refiners buy all they want. BUt also let consumer know how much of the completely defective ethanol is in the gasoline they are buying.

    What a strange belief. Americans should chose products and drive economic efficiency by informed choice.

  • norrishappy norrishappy Oct 9, 2014 8:06 PM Flag

    Hi Grothred,

    Agree. It could and can spread easily to the corrupt third world countries with the always attending slums. Sadly conditions around the world are not far off the filth of Dark Age Europe. Except the population density is far greater.

    The terrorists can get Americans to join them in the Middle East or cut off the heads of our grandmothers. Why is it such a stretch that the terrorist could not get suicide recruits to inflect themselves and then come here?
    The political show measurea Obama has put up assume good faith. Which has already been broken by one individual.

    The Americans who went to fight are Somali. But as we witness with the Boko terrorists, there is no shortage of Salafi belief system terrorists in that area of Africa.

    The CDC is assuming America is at war and the terrorists will not make use of the billions of currency they hold.



    Please pray for the fine Americans send by Obama to help. It is a noble mission.

  • Reply to

    Saudi thinking

    by gpd8252 Oct 9, 2014 4:26 PM
    norrishappy norrishappy Oct 9, 2014 7:40 PM Flag

    Peak Oil theory"

    Peak OIl was always Progressive based science.

    Assumed there would be no advance in recovery technology. Progressive environmentalists purposefully created the general delusion that oil reservoirs were sucked dry. Rather than limited by technology.
    Never mentioned the shale oil and gas which were fully known by industry geologists to exist.

    These are just a few of the points which are now proven by experience to be wrong with this shoddy 'theory'.

    But being a Liberty loving and serving American I do support your right to make delusional statement in public.

    But I must say 'contributing' on an American oil and gas board show you do not understand the subject or the investment.

  • norrishappy by norrishappy Oct 9, 2014 2:55 PM Flag

    Big blue chip with a 140% cover and take or pay contracts on assets built to current demands. Wide irrational ngl pricing just makes their export terminals more important.

    Sadly I can understand KMI reacting with their production exposure and very nice co2 business.

    One big scare.

  • norrishappy norrishappy Oct 9, 2014 2:49 PM Flag

    HOw did Duncan get here? What choices did Duncan make to get here?

    In case you have not noticed Obama does not enforce our immigration laws.

    Immigrants from Africa are hardworking and traditional. Not like Obama's father at all.

    $1k is not all that expensive for Americans. Certainly not if you can get a loved family member on a plane out of the hard hit countries.

    But you do prove my point. As you always do.

    Duncan sources state, was throwing up all over the place on his second trip to hospital. This is a violent sickness as symptoms emerge. Transition to explosive diarrhea and vomiting phase is often sudden.

    Very different than the nearing terminal victims shown on American TV..

    Restricting travel is just common sense. Which is why Progressives hate it and pull out the race card to get their way.

    Our best medicine could not save what appeared to be a healthy man in his prime. Nor did our bureaucracy respond in an efficient manner at any level. Send a Mershal to serve a summons in the apartment?

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