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Linn Energy, LLC (LINE) Message Board

norrishappy 611 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 27 minutes ago Member since: Apr 24, 2002
  • Reply to

    Wonder why LNCO up and LINE down today?

    by sandra888us Aug 8, 2014 10:01 AM
    norrishappy norrishappy Aug 8, 2014 5:26 PM Flag

    True bear. BUt a big portion of the reason this inefficiency persists is the partnership ordinary income recapture tax tail on partnerships.

    I certainly do respect the abilities of the RJ analyst. I can even understand how they could assign a premium to LNCO over LINE. Greater liquidity as a holding and therefore all in, actually better tax treatment.

    The wild card I believe is the retained earnings in possible c-corp mergers.

    But the same could be said of KMR over KMP.I fact in the era of free or $2 commissions at Vanguard the KMR format is more efficient than the LNCO cash on the barrel head.

  • Reply to

    Hey staggering Opie

    by norrishappy Aug 7, 2014 5:20 PM
    norrishappy norrishappy Aug 8, 2014 1:32 PM Flag

    FTR you are correct. WIn you are incorrect. You of course claimed to have sold out at the very top. As the OLB troopers do.

    Remember FRT was generating roc dividends in the 10% range. Win more.

    True way below my average and more importantly lagged the returns of the raging market. So in the real sense a loser by opportunity.

    Longer term I still believe all the pipe owners will do well. Data demand is unlimited and barely beginning. Spectrum is finite even if we rationally assume some more wonder compression technology.

    Which is exactly why Buffett Munger picked up VZ.

    In general the market at this valuation is beginning to factor in Obama's retirement. Even a Republicans take over of the Senate. Even with this minor downdraft.

    If after Obama our political process rationally allows our economy to utilize our surfeit of natural gas and ngls? Our economic potential really is much like the Fab 50s. The efficiency gains are very real. The low level of human and physical utilization is real to the point of criminal.

    Can well meaning deludes like Mr. Williams keep all that potential frozen by spreading his delusion rational thinking is supercede by encouraging color coded or racial based emotions as the new replacement?

    American has not been perfect simply because we are people. But our journey of all the peoples of the earth forming one American is based on the belief of one rational race of humanity. Rationality of Conviction as the fruit of personal virtue.

  • Reply to

    Hey staggering Opie

    by norrishappy Aug 7, 2014 5:20 PM
    norrishappy norrishappy Aug 8, 2014 1:14 PM Flag

    Yea our economy generally grows, much faster than Obamanics, so folks can buy an index fund with a reasonable expectation of 'growth' and inflation protection. The distribution of returns will be far more variable but at the same risk adjusted median for a chimp or OLB trooper throwing darts.

    A matter of probability math and the stability / rationality of American governmental policy and the resulting sustainable economic growth rate. Why Progressive collectivists are always going on and on about the average American living to well. Every one else should consume less.

    What you claim is possible but extremely unlikely. The entire OLB is given over to what is proven to be negative return behaviour. Buying very risky unstable companies because the trailing yield is high. The high yield being assumed proof of market inefficiency rather than the thin ice where fools rush in.

    Granted picking such risky stuff should result in higher returns over time. Except the OLB engages in negative return behaviour. The corners of the market where the Progressives play their wall street games and lower order awareness entities are their prey item.

    It is interesting. The big banks did what Barmey Franks and the collectivist personal patronage politcos demanded. Barmey claimed if something went bad the government (he Progressive) could correct it.
    The businesses which operated in belief of Barmey progressive abilities are gone. The Wall Street crew who encourages Progressives to collect political rent played both ends. But of course in a systemic failure hedging does not work.

    What Americans must do is demand all this wildly out of control government process be simplified. So we can control it. There is a reason Progressive claim all this is to complex for average citizens to understand, including them.

    Yea this is back beyond dark age stuff. This is Ron^3 dancing naked about the stones. Uttering pronouncements of 'truth'.

    At least the Greeks had hot girls mumbling.

  • Reply to

    Wonder why LNCO up and LINE down today?

    by sandra888us Aug 8, 2014 10:01 AM
    norrishappy norrishappy Aug 8, 2014 12:52 PM Flag

    Poor Ron^3 provdes an example of the delusion of arrogance.

    We know over time our markets are very efficient. Safer stocks return less and risky stocks more.
    We know about 1 out of twenty pros can beat the markets on a sustained multi-cycle basis. Almost none after lush compensation.

    Yet, because market workings - in the vast majority - are true fully informed experts doing a systemic cloud processing of all available information, it does exceed the cognitive resources of an individual.

    So Ron^3 is the perfect example of the caveman amongst us. What it does not and will not make the attempt to understand is irrational. He will hold fast to his belief just like the earth centric universe model.

    There are of course special situation of powerful abuse like here at LINE. Powerful connections to media and political power. Unfortunately we can fault LINE management for designing an efficiency frontier balance sheet when powerful Progressive Wall Street special interest are alive and well.

    But we must also give management for working through a powerful and fully coordinated attack exhausting what remained of Barron's reputation and clearly hostile political interests.

    Yet politics does not matter as markets are irrational. They must be to sustain the self centric belief all the world is irrational. Yea, real dark age primitive stuff. .

  • Reply to

    Hey staggering Opie

    by norrishappy Aug 7, 2014 5:20 PM
    norrishappy norrishappy Aug 8, 2014 12:12 PM Flag

    OH thank you for reminding about the explosion of OLB clown car sound and fury over FTR.

    Your persona took considerable pleasure in my public statement that it was my problem child at $3.50 - or so. That I was also interest in WIN as they finished up their fiber to 'tower' or pole effort.

    I managed to do well on both. I sold out before the recent burst up on the MREIT conversion. Although the market factoring it early is why they did run up before the confirmation.

    Of course my position in coal was the wrong and so was my economic book value selection. As you will remember I took all the hope Americans would be rational and responsible in a Romney win and closed out.

    Actually my biggest failure was with LINE. I really did not appreciate that Obama with his immaturity and lack of humility could make our ngl markets completely irrational. The fine CEO at EPD was not talking his own book when he declared our chemical companies will cure the ethane insanity. He came from the chemical industry. Always before prices are the free market cure for prices.

    BUt management has deftly worked through it. Given LINE came from natural gas, it is not fair to paint their performance on getting blinded sided by ngl prices and the Hogshooter TX disappointment. Plus we now know they were smarter than the market on BRY.

    Had the Obama SEC actions not bald faced broke up the original deal, we would have our distribution increase and would be around $40 right now.

    Which certainly makes the point about Progressives holding their politics as religion. The American oil boom has taken place on private lands just beyond the reach of a collectivist regime. Wilding abusing power by environmental dissembling and outright deception.

    BUt it also says something about the primitive nature of politics as collectivist religion that the dogmatic believers are crowded on this board claiming to own LINE. Technical knowledge is not rationalism.

  • Reply to

    Hey staggering Opie

    by norrishappy Aug 7, 2014 5:20 PM
    norrishappy norrishappy Aug 8, 2014 11:11 AM Flag

    Well shadow of a human being Stag the heartless for completely defective corn ethanol monster.

    I gave this information out several times. If you would like to check how those positions have done, then maybe I will post it now.

    There was more than enough OLB corn ethanol fired clown car noise about MSFT, NSC, CSX, NRF, PGH the chemicals and others I will not bother to think that hard about. Yes I have been Blessed and I am grateful.
    Oh PRU popped into mind. The higher rates fizzled out in Obama fashion but the pricing cycle remained in tact.

    But all rational people know what the silence of the Progressive OLB means about the portfolio data I did post.

    Anyways past returns of this size are not sustainable and therefore irrelevant. Plus I have moved from trying to beat the market on a lower risk basis to Obama next foolish policy defense.

    ON a recent basis you know my performance in KMI, EBP and KMR. I added some Southern SO below $40.
    My recent add was some TUP. There is also a very big run up in the now two parts of NRF.

    YOu can laugh about my long term ARCC holding. But they are in a defense position and structured the balance sheet to benefit from rising rates. As Obama just can not leave our economy alone, another 2.5 years to higher rates. Long rates falling to below 2.5% while the fed let up a little on the printing? No good.

    So you have more than enough to cheer, if I have poor fortune.

    Only the old is worried about the past in investing. Except to learn. Which is something you clearly have not done in a very long time.

    You are simply repeating your games of years ago. Right here and right now.

  • Reply to

    Hey staggering Opie

    by norrishappy Aug 7, 2014 5:20 PM
    norrishappy norrishappy Aug 8, 2014 10:24 AM Flag

    Well starve human beings for stag's completely defective corn ethanol and then say no one likes you to some one else. Ah the company we chose to keep.

    Problem is companies out perform for about a year. Based on that reduction science method.

    I understand what the company is doing and why. It is the valuation in question.

    Plus they are already exceeding guidance.

    Plus it was very nice of you to clearly omitted confirmation or denial my purchase date. Which of course in OLB chatter is confirmation.

    The one good thing about shameless stag the monster or the olb in general, with no personal integrity and therefore no value upon self, they do not get hurt feelings.

    Of course hurt feelings is not what is going on across the Middle East. Corn ethanol corruption and the resulting and understandable food riots were the ignition spark. Hopefully Obama will stop it with the Progressive dithering and just do the right thing. YOu can bet in the 1,000 or so Americans being 'threatened' there are tactical operators and forward air controllers.

    ISIS advancing and pushing back our very real allies the Kurds just requires a few b52 load to the wings with the small precision JDAMs. ISIS breaks cover and they die.

    If you could get a large concentration out in the open a fuel air bomb would be a nice statement.

    Pretty much like the CIA opening of the Afghan operation. But our systems and operators are honed to the sharp tip now. The Peshmerga will do their duty to protect their people.

    Shame Obama destroyed our relationship across the Middle East and especially House of Saudi. In no small part caused by Obama not following the RFS law and lowering the mandate to take the pressure off food prices and supply.

  • Reply to

    Hey staggering Opie

    by norrishappy Aug 7, 2014 5:20 PM
    norrishappy norrishappy Aug 8, 2014 9:46 AM Flag

    Now now.

    I certainly understood it when I bought it. I mean now. Silly irrational.

  • Reply to

    Hey staggering Opie

    by norrishappy Aug 7, 2014 5:20 PM
    norrishappy norrishappy Aug 8, 2014 7:03 AM Flag

    NOw now Willie. YOu can use your Liberty to be a petty snark.

    But it is bad for you.

  • Reply to

    Hey staggering Opie

    by norrishappy Aug 7, 2014 5:20 PM
    norrishappy norrishappy Aug 8, 2014 12:20 AM Flag

    Stag the say or do anything shameless monster of crony capitalist corn ethanol corruption.

    You can look through the posts and see my mention at a little lower than $5.

    Reason then was they had bought up their very own CDO interests at massive discounts. Due to accounting rules their financial did not reflect something around a $2 very real economic gain.

    So from your petty perspective, it could not be worse.

    To be honest I am more than pleasantly surprised the team took the cover off the ball. They wildly exceed my expectations so no credit to me, just a very big smile. To be honest with the split up, it is beyond my ability to analyze right now. Which is very problematic for a rational person. So you will not understand it.

    The discussion was around the government mortgage reits at the time. Like you were boasting of buying just before the uptick of rates and much pain.

    You can ask your alter ego Opie. There was a good deal of the OLB clown car display about it. Until of course it took off.

    In fact some where around $10 I had to lighten up to keep portfolio weight. Just like MSFT.

    One Cavuto for me! Plus Mr. Varney could not retire with three younglings in college. Not to mention education provision for seven and encouraging more grandchildren. So despite nice dividends and a remarkable run he can not retire! He did not disclose but given the vigorous family nature, a whole new wave of Varneyhood should be rationally and happily awaited!

    NOt to mention the expense of keeping the dog pack of Varneywood.

  • norrishappy by norrishappy Aug 7, 2014 5:20 PM Flag

    What do you think I should do with my NRF and NSAM holdings.

    It is to large and complex for me to really understand now.

  • Reply to

    Good call

    by norrishappy Aug 7, 2014 12:15 PM
    norrishappy norrishappy Aug 7, 2014 5:06 PM Flag

    I know rrb calibain. Still worshipping man as yourself.

    The high cost of equity reflect uncertainty. The primary source of the uncertainty was dcf. Complicated by a seeming decline in operating efficiency.

    The very low cost leverage reflected in the debt is not the causal concern but rather a accelerator of the primary concern.

    You are in interesting shadow of who you should be when I consider Plantinga and his God and other MInds.

    That the idea of rationality or justification are something distinct from technical knowledge.

    Markets are processing more information than an individual's ability to cognate. In a rational person this reality brings on a healthy humility. Stated as a margin of safety in the Graham Dodd method. G and D is the only process which beats markets over long cycles.

    As you are you can not wield G and D method. No hope as your arrogant condition excludes any faintest hint of humility.

    Right now the thiests are ascendant. Nor is it a fad. Which is why daffy dawkings is alone in his personal humiliation show. It is also why he will not debate a theist. So it is the pop intellect on par with Pavlovian dogs which put on the show.

    No, I am a Christian and not a universalist.

  • Reply to

    Good call

    by norrishappy Aug 7, 2014 12:15 PM
    norrishappy norrishappy Aug 7, 2014 2:49 PM Flag

    Boaring. But not scary either.

  • Reply to

    Added to my cash flow portfolio

    by coochy.cooty Aug 7, 2014 12:10 PM
    norrishappy norrishappy Aug 7, 2014 12:46 PM Flag

    Oh goodness.

    We all know how quickly a stock can react to an earnings call. New information or confirmation of rumors.

    What bloggers do or say is irrelevant. What the analysts do in changing opinions is significant.

    If not for Ron^3 most recent stilted snarkiness yesterday I could feel bad about dwelling on his poverty of ignorance. So I do not. Of course would be bullies hide by claiming ignore and then pop out to snark when it appears their is strength in numbers of a full occupy line board troop tantrum.

    There is of course a huge gulf between the majority of a price adjustment and full price adjustment.

    LINE has a huge amount of coverage. The analysts getting down into helium shows they are doing a full model.

    The piece locking in place for the PV10 valuation around $36 us the improving capital efficiency and visibility. The other lesion for the CrossedHedies wunderkind is trailing asset purchase prices are a silly measure in the middle of an energy technology cycle.

    Now who said I seem $20 for LINE? Shame is I like Hockey. Hopefully a real player will through a check.
    Trying to fix the game? How do real Hockey players consider such action?

  • Reply to

    Good call

    by norrishappy Aug 7, 2014 12:15 PM
    norrishappy norrishappy Aug 7, 2014 12:32 PM Flag

    rrb/calain also babbled endlessly about the eidtda debt coverage ratio.

    Now we find that management is comfortable with the current debt ratio given the additional dependability/visibility of the operating cash flow.

    That said management is looking to get the unit price up and so the cost of equity down. Then use LNCO to buy up a low leverage c-corp. Which avoids the insanity of using extremely high cost issued or retained cash flow to directly reduce leverage. Not a productive activity so management is not doing it. No matter how animated rrb tantrum.

    Having the breathing room in coverage to buy in open market units is far superior to a distribution increase at this point. It is also a tool in getting the cost of equity down.

    Which gets back to reducing balance sheet leverage by buying up a c-corp. Again management is executing excellent ground game.

    Plus there is the very sweet increase in the California oil operations. rrb/calibain of course claimed these should be thought of as declining to tertiary assets.

    The other big item is the u in the natural gas futures market. The answer being a rational it depends on what we pay where mid $4s is an issue. If it is LINE does not buy.

    So I think we should all send an email over to Barrons and have them explain how their wunderkind could be so very wrong. Asset valuations could not be worse. They claim to be waring cups. So I say we assume so.

  • norrishappy by norrishappy Aug 7, 2014 12:15 PM Flag

    I am pleased. Real investors here hopefully took note that there is no plan for a distribution increase on organic production growth. Increases will come with acquisitions. So the game now turns from DCF security to lowering the cost of equity. So that deals are accretive, as they should be. Which of course means a much higher unit price. LINE really should not be yielding over 9% with a secure margin of safety in the coverage.

    The other element is that it would be more profitable for us little folks for LINE to buy-in units rather than increase the distribution. The real cost of equity is astronomical at $30 a unit.

    Now turning to a couple of the multitude of rrb/claibane delusions cause by determined posing behaviour which results in the extreme poverty of ignorance.

    First is helium trends are now important enough for an analysts to invest a question in it. The answer is both processing plants are efficient and LINE does sell a good amount of helium.

    "With only about 15 helium sources globally, North Africa and the Middle East are becoming the industry’s new production powerhouses, leaving companies jockeying for position to secure supplies. Linde and its rivals have one eye on a decision on a crucial Qatari helium project tender and are also looking closely at Iran’s potential, according to Zurich-based IHS Global analyst Ralf Gubler. "

    It is worth an investors time to check the BLM helium price chart. When helium is over 15 times the price of ngas per mfc, it does not take much to change the economics. Just because rrb will not learn the math as this would expose posing, it does not change the reality.

    That said the ME does have a big advantage with helium. There natural gas sells at oil BTUs rather than our Obama 80% discount. But once our government reserve is depleted, there really is no other significant storage.

  • Reply to

    Strong Performance

    by rrb1981 Aug 7, 2014 9:57 AM
    norrishappy norrishappy Aug 7, 2014 10:40 AM Flag

    I am hooked on a feelen about loving you - Coochy. cooty.

    rrb calibain did you ever stop and ponder the rationality of spending so much effort on a persona with the moniker coochy.cotty?

    ;) ;0
    One Cavuto answering cranky mail. One Jon Stewart so high he will never notice the scurrying down here in middle America.

    Are the rumors true? Is JOn moving the show to Colorado? Because the grass is greener and more sustainable?

    Hey how much co2 is released by pot anyway?

  • Monthly distributions are not subject to opinions.

    This is a great report. But line is still in transition. A well executed transition for those of us who like the monthly checks.

    But the back drop is irrational / hostile Obama policy. Plus backward or flat future markets for oil and gas.

    The response of the free market in Marcellus is to figure out how to blend ethane so it can be destroyed as natural gas.

    KMP builds out splitters to export processed oil. Then EPA comes along and receives a private ruling that normal de-gassing is sufficient process for export. The point is not the merit of the actions or decisions but simply how this type of Obama lack of leadership freezes capital investment in our economy.

    Obama should be threatening to hold up our ng export lines if our Marine is not freed. Striving to be fair and just does not mean taking #$%$ from a corrupt power structure in another country.

    Anyways, I do believe in the American natural gas century. Clearly buying up Hugoton LINE management believe it too. Back to low cost production, long reserve index and hedging out dependable low cost production. Paying those money checks until American get rational and does the right thing.

    It really is not so bad being on the right side of things. Really looking forward to the call.

    Good fortune real American investors.

  • Reply to

    Strong Performance

    by rrb1981 Aug 7, 2014 9:57 AM
    norrishappy norrishappy Aug 7, 2014 10:16 AM Flag

    "A very nice reduction from the untenable 35% from several years ago."

    Still understand the basic concept of capital efficiency and more importantly rejects the proposition to be a rational being.

    Self handicapping in this market is like being wounded out in God's not sentient nature machine.
    'No no do not eat me Mr. Progressive always receives the same answer.'

    If you are a Progressive Politico the response is always the same

    'You ate up our voters we encouraged to go out into our capital markets like babes. Ok give us billions and we will can it even. We can get some more like them with scraps from our table'. See social justice is fair'.

  • Reply to

    Line Coverage 1.13?

    by crusnthrulife05 Aug 7, 2014 7:29 AM
    norrishappy norrishappy Aug 7, 2014 9:25 AM Flag

    I think FY04

    $963mm + $103mm = $1,065

    Which would be about 1.107 coverage for the year.

    Of course everywhere except in the epic olb myth, the market looks forward.

    Very good.

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