Jet, why sell here? WNR has many things going for them. I expect a 50 -100% increase in PPS over the next year. I have 1000 shares left from a block I bought about 2-3 weeks ago. I hope to hang on to it for a year. If so, it will be the first tax reduction on stock investments I've seen in about 10 years :) I think WNR is at a low and has a great opportunity to rise in price and earnings. Lets get the NTI thing behind us and enjoy the direct pipeline advantages going forward! GLTA
P.S. WNR could be a buyout prospect in H2, 2016.
Outstanding shares dropped 23%, not true! I did not hear or read that account but it is false. I believe I heard in the Q&A that they bought back about 2 million shares. Not sure if it was in Q4 or Q1.
P.S. Jet, you'll always be here, your addicted :)) WNR/NTI have a bright future! Give it time.
They export into Mexico (PERMEX) and that is a growing business. WNR/NTI have very well run small refineries. But, their profit margins are very dependent on the global markets for crude oil and pet. products. Right now SA rules. When that changes, WNR will become instantly more profitable. Currently, 2016 looks like a wipeout.
It's the HFC share price performance that threw a scare into me. Investors are ignoring results in my opinion. I believe the HFC reaction had a lot to do with the 8+% rise in WNR PPS today. Let's see what tomorrow brings. I know WNR is very cheap now, but anything to do with oil is getting hammered. Don't know what new they could say going forward that would lift the stock price.
I do know I made a profit today. Sold 2/3 of my holdings just now at $27.51. I hope for all longs that tomorrow is a GREAT day. Just call me a last-minute Chicken Little :)
Quiet Jet, we're observing the quiet period prior to the earning release :)
I can't get too excited about Q4, 2015 earnings, that was ages ago. And I don't think Q1 projections are going to excite anyone. I don't see us dropping below $22 and I don't see the mid-30's until summer. I kinda think crude is going back to mid-20's soon, unless the producers can agree on production cuts.
It will be nice to see the NTI issue settled in Q2. Now that refineries are dirt cheap, does it appear that WNR is really over paying for NTI? I'll check in again after the CC on Thursday.
It will be interesting to see if and how soon WNR drops dividend levels. I think they would try to absorb the hit and keep them where they're at if they see it as only a one or two quarter cash flow event. However, if they become concerned about a longer term decline, they may act sooner to preserve cash.
Jet, take a look at CUI. They have a GREAT new GC technology and just received a big P.O. (with future extensions) from a major EU customer that should lead to many new orders in Europe and eventually in the U.S. Read up on the benefits of their new technology. Technology has been proven out in customer field tests, certifications, etc. over the past four and a half years of testing. Note the cost difference vs competitors. Time to rock the markets!
I happen to live in NTI territory. Local pump prices yesterday were $1.35/gal. I haven't seen prices that low for as long as I can remember. I don't see dividend payouts from NTI staying around $1.10.
Extending yesterday's, last week's or last month's decline rate into the next three months is not logical. But, if that is how you truly feel, I would advise you to sell now and try to recover your senses. My local pump prices are at $1.35. Do I expect to see them even lower in three months? NO! Refiners are currently taking a hit, they will eventually recover. So, buy low and sell it down the road and higher prices. Average down as long as it's available to do so. GLTA
And your point is??? Look, everyone here knows the stock is down. And with gas at the pumps falling it may well go lower. I'm in recently at an average of $26.90. If it drops lower in the near term due to falling gas pump prices or poor Q1 guidance at the CC, I will average down! WNR is at a great discount price based on near term earnings potential. But, if you look out a year or two, I see great returns. If they maintain the dividends, that's worth 5.5-6% alone! What's not to like.
P.S. Check out HFC, YTD or last three months, it's down about the same percentage. GLTA
WNR's PPS out performed its refinery peers that I compare against with a 4.29% increase. Wish I knew how the Q4 results and 2016 guidance will look like :) In the mean time I'll just enjoy the $1.49 gas prices and use the savings to buy more WNR to sell in 2017 or beyond. GLTA
I don't think they can afford a buyback given the now pricy buyout of NTI and hold the dividend at $1.52.