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Gevo, Inc. Message Board

nostracumass 41 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 6, 2016 1:27 AM Member since: Feb 1, 2012
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  • nostracumass nostracumass Jan 6, 2016 1:27 AM Flag

    Used to Doonie - and like every other "hater" on airline pilot forums, you're true to form.

    The reality is, RJET will right size itself over time. In 1-2 years the company will be back earning $1-1.50/share, like it always has, and the stock will trade where it belongs.

    It's very expensive to build an airline with 200+ frames from scratch; especially a consistently profitable one (even in the worst of times such as now). RJET under $3 will amply reward those willing to take the risk of buying in. And BTW, BK is not always the end (see AAL = $.28/share to $13) - RJET has a huge enterprise value and quite a bit of cash on its balance sheet to successfully restructure outside of BK court.

    Get lost and go over to the pilot forums..

  • nostracumass by nostracumass Jan 5, 2016 2:26 PM Flag

    This stock is priced as if it is a SEVERELY DISTRESSED asset, which I just don't buy...I'll buy the stock instead and put my $$ where my mouth is. And for fair disclosure, I've bought and sold RJET the last 7 years and made about 5x on my invested capital FWIW.

    This morning felt like a hedgefund blowing up....yawn....which it probably my was.

  • nostracumass nostracumass Jan 5, 2016 2:17 PM Flag

    Look this could see $4-5 again overnight. However, I'm a non-margined long term investor using covered calls to generate income. I am quite happy to buy today at $3.0x several times and sell February $4 calls for $.10-.15 which I've done all morning.

    My way of thinking is if I lose the stock at $4 in 50 or so days I'm receiving a 35-40% return on my investment. Most likely, it will take this year to get the company back on track which will limit upside, but if after writing calls for 3-4 months the picture improves, I will cease and hold uncovered for I believe the company is worth far more than $4 when the skies clear....

  • nostracumass by nostracumass Jan 5, 2016 2:12 PM Flag

    There are catalysts that remain to fuel a sharp rebound. Any positive chatter about contract renegotiation for one, and there is the outside chance the FEDs relax piloting rules to their previous state in the near future which would send this stock soaring in short order.

  • nostracumass by nostracumass Jan 5, 2016 2:08 PM Flag

    And at these levels, the company is valued at 6-7% of enterprise value and 10% of revenues. Meanwhile, its chugging along slightly profitable while all this sorts itself out. So it begs the question; what's a fair valuation right now ? Provably $4-5/share until remaining hurdles are cleared. After that, look at Bob McAdoo's projections if you care to be bullish ($10/share). All I know is the stock was priced slightly below these levels on BK concerns several months ago which is simply not in the cards short term any longer with the new agreement.

    The market is nuts at times but you have to trade the market you're given. All I know is RJET went from $2.50 to nearly $7 overnight on the pilot agreement and now it's $3 again and that hurdle has been cleared. The stock trades as if it hasn't and that's simply not the case....

    Sentiment: Buy

  • First and foremost, there is no question Bedford is disliked by his employees and that his track record is lackluster at best; after all, the man bought Frontier and sold it for a loss and it's now purportedly scheduling an IPO and has become one of the most profitable ULCCs. That said, running a CPA airline is not rocket science and although there are definitely hurdles to get over with new contracts, a major one was removed with the new Teamsters agreement.

    Factually, we are entering a prolonged period of low energy prices; although RJET pays very little of their fuel cost, it's a huge boon to its flying partners and will provide some "wiggle room" for future contacts. People, legacy management knows they need strong flying partners and are well aware of staffing issues as they will ultimately affect even themselves if they are not thoughtful about how they proceed into the future. The new contract is a good faith first step toward restoring managements credibility over the long term. As far as the hardware; look, Republic arguably has the most attractive mission-adaptable fleet in the industry. ERJ is the best metal in their marketplace and will likely be their best bargaining chip going forward. For Christ sake, look at SKYW - just now they are implementing new metal and look at their order book; they rolled the dice with the MRJ and look where they are now on that; delayed another year! I'm actually shocked not one of these so-called analysts has raised this concern with SKYW!

    Anyhow, RJET will continue to shrink for now. However, there are good odds the company will rightsize as it always has over the last 40 years and capitalize going forward. Look, the stock was in the $2s twice before over solvency concerns with Frontier and the pilots' TA - both of those are in the rearview mirror now and the company can now focus on carving out its niche going forward which I personally believe will be a fairly successful one in which buying at these levels will reward.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Ummmm...downgrades RJET at $2; rallies to $5. Upgrades it at $5 w $8 PT - rallies to $7. Drops 50% in 2 months and now he downgrades.

    Let me also point out he threw in the towel on GOL and LFL today - had a buy on Gol from $7 to $0.58. Now he cuts to hold.


  • Jet fuel to $.80

    This stock is rigged beyond comprehension - should trade at $180-200/share

  • nostracumass by nostracumass Nov 20, 2015 4:46 PM Flag

    Dougy reminds me of myself. Rough around the edges, never was really supposed to amount to much, picked on by his peers, yet sort of the "Eminem" of airline CEOs. In the words of Eminem, "now tell the people something they don't know about me!" - exactly...Doug, Douglas, Doug-E-fresh...3 DUIIs, a gambler - but ice water for blood...a real poker player...and ALWAYS a winner more than a loser.

    Read your reports and make your picks, but I know where I'll place my bet. Doug was a visionary on consolidation, fuel consumption and putting a merger together with a seemless integration.

    LISTEN TO ME. When a stock (LCC aka US AIRWAYS) goes from $0.88 to $56.20 without any restructuring inside of BK court, IT IS ONLY NATURAL for it to consolidate its gains. AALs price action can be attributed to NOTHING MORE OR LESS than this. Soon, and I expect by year end, this consolidation phase is going to END and AAL is going to have ALOT of catching up to do.

    I know where I will be situated when it happens.

  • nostracumass by nostracumass Nov 20, 2015 4:31 PM Flag

    Is when Nostra has to sit facing his seatmates. If you had the wife I have, you'd understand why. I start thinking about her and seatmates see Large Unit in Pants. NOT LIKE.

  • And will enjoy doing so @ $41, 40, 39, 38, 37, 36, etc. LCC aka DOUGY made me rich beyond my wildest dreams. Slowly, I will climb back into the cockpit for the ride to $100 and above which is where all of the legacies traded for many years with higher oil....

  • Reply to

    LUV - All-time high!

    by unclespeaking Nov 20, 2015 4:12 PM
    nostracumass nostracumass Nov 20, 2015 4:21 PM Flag

    Uncle, lest we not forget that LUVs international operations are plumbing the depths of RASM and CASM to boot, at least initially and for the forseeable future...not to mention THEY are the ones competing with SAVE and JBLU.

    And now, I will book my first class tickets to Jamaica on AAL in order to avoid traveling like a barn animal thank you very much.

  • So she can check her chiapet-self in and fly down below where she belongs...

  • Helane Becker, who if you follow this sector and stock, would not raise her opinion on LCC @ $4/share after "meeting with LCC management" back in 2009-10. I had personal conversations with her and told her she was mistaken, yet she preferred UAL at the time which is now hardly up 100% vs 1000% for LCC (AAL). At the same time, Goldman said to SELL DAL @ $9 and UAL @ $19 and William Randow of CITI said LCC was insolvent.

    So, and I don't post much anymore, here we are with 3-4 genius analysts who once again tell you not to own AAL; that it's worth only $45, etc. Meanwhile, I submit the following:

    Douglas Parker has been the most visioanry airline CEO and continues to ignore Wall St.
    AAL has the highest cash flow of any airline on earth
    AAL has the most undervalued stock price of almost any company on earth of its size
    AAL now has upset Wall Street because it can afford to obliterate its competition and has stated it is going to do so. People, it's not DAL and UAL that AAL is competing with - it's SAVE and LUV. As long as fuel stays at these levels and RASM stabilizes in next year, AAL can obliterate it's competition for dozens of reasons and come out the strongest of all of the legacies. And oh by the way, in doing so, can make $4-5 billion of net profit per you understand you little meeHoles what that means - it means AAL will crush its competition and retire millions of shares of stock simultaneously !!

    It also means that in several years either the stock will trade north of $100 OR be off the market altogether (privatized)

    The shenanigans surrounding the movement in this stock are already under investigation and it wont be much longer before the trend reverses and AAL leads the sector higher once again.

    I have the time to wait and Doug has already made very well to do and he'll do it again.

  • Reply to

    In due time

    by dcihockey Oct 27, 2015 10:51 PM
    nostracumass nostracumass Oct 28, 2015 8:57 AM Flag

    Uhh, no...that was Warren Buffet who coined that phrase and you start the airline BEFORE, while you're a billionaire, not AFTER you become a millionaire...

  • nostracumass nostracumass Oct 25, 2015 10:09 PM Flag

    Delta owns 9% you effing moron

    I2, you cannot even spell or formulate a thought !

  • As I've stated in the past, this event will mark the bottom in the slide of the Reais vs dollar. The window to buy dirt cheap Brazilian assets will soon close....

  • Reply to


    by hun.terrible85 Oct 16, 2015 12:29 PM
    nostracumass nostracumass Oct 17, 2015 1:07 AM Flag

    That doesn't really make much sense in light of what the previous poster stated. Why would the controlling family shareholder throw $100m at new equity if the company was going to go BK in the near future ???? I'm with you on the overall prognosis but I'm beginning to believe there may be something else in the works here.

  • Either a 49% stake by DAL or a buyout and JV with immunity brokered by a bank between Copa, Delta & GOL.

  • Statement of Ownership (sc 13g)
    Date : 09/18/2015 @ 4:06PM
    Source : Edgar (US Regulatory)
    Stock : Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes Sa (GOL)
    Quote : 1.13 -0.02 (-1.74%) @ 4:11PM
    Statement of Ownership (sc 13g)

    WASHINGTON, DC 20549


    Under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934
    (Amendment No. )*

    Gol Intelligent Airlines Inc.
    (Name of Issuer)

    Preferred Stock and American Depositary Shares, each representing one share of Preferred Stock
    (Title of Class of Securities)

    (CUSIP Number)

    September 11, 2015
    (Date of Event Which Requires Filing of this Statement)

    Check the appropriate box to designate the rule pursuant to which this Schedule is filed:

    [ ] Rule 13d-1(b)

    [X] Rule 13d-1(c)

    [_] Rule 13d-1(d)

    *The remainder of this cover page shall be filled out for a reporting person's initial filing on this form with respect to the subject class of securities, and for any subsequent amendment containing information which would alter the disclosures provided in a prior cover page.

    The information required in the remainder of this cover page shall not be deemed to be "filed" for the purpose of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 ("Act") or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section of the Act but shall be subject to all other provisions of the Act (however, see the Notes).

    CUSIP No. 38045R107


    Delta Air Lines, Inc.

    (a) [_]
    (b) [_]





















    CUSIP No. 38045R107

    Item 1. (a). Name of Issuer:

    Gol Intelligent Airlines Inc.

    (b). Address of issuer's principal executive offices:

    Praça Comandante Linneu Gomes, S/N Portaria 3
    Jardim Aeroporto
    04626-020 São Paulo, São Paulo
    Federative Republic of Brazil

    Item 2. (a). Name of person filing:

    This statement is filed by:
    (i) Delta Air Lines, Inc.

    (b). Address or principal business office or, if none, residence:

    P.O. Box 20706
    Atlanta, Georgia 30320-6001

    (c). Citizenship:

    Delta is organized under the laws of the state of Delaware.

    (d). Title of class of securities:

    Preferred Stock; American Depositary Shares, each representing one share of Preferred Stock

    (e). CUSIP No.:


    Item 3. If This Statement is filed pursuant to §§.240.13d-1(b) or 240.13d-2(b), or (c), check whether the person filing is a

    (a) [_] Broker or dealer registered under section 15 of the Act (15 U.S.C. 78o).

    (b) [_] Bank as defined in section 3(a)(6) of the Act (15 U.S.C. 78c).

    (c) [_] Insurance company as defined in section 3(a)(19) of the Act (15 U.S.C. 78c).

    (d) [_] Investment company registered under section 8 of the Investment Company Act of 1940 (15 U.S.C. 80a-8).

    (e) [_] An investment adviser in accordance with § 240.13d-1(b)(1)(ii)(E);

    (f) [_] An employee benefit plan or endowment fund in accordance with § 240.13d-1(b)(1)(ii)(F);

    (g) [_] A parent holding company or control person in accordance with §240.13d-1(b)(1)(ii)(G);

    (h) [_] A savings association as defined in Section 3(b) of the Federal Deposit Insurance Act (12 U.S.C.1813);

    (i) [_] A church plan that is excluded from the definition of an investment company under section 3(c)(14) of the Investment Company Act of 1940 (15 U.S.C. 80a-3);

    (j) [_] A non-U.S. institution in accordance with §240.13d-1(b)(1)(ii)(J);

    (k) [_]
    Group, in accordance with §240.13d-1(b)(1)(ii)(K). If filing as a non-U.S. institution in accordance with §240.13d-1(b)(1)(ii)(J), please specify the type of institution:


    CUSIP No. 38045R107

    Item 4. Ownership.

    (a) Amount beneficially owned:

    Delta is deemed to be the beneficial owner of 32,926,025 shares of Preferred Stock, including those owned through American Depository shares.

    (b) Percent of class:

    Delta is deemed to be the beneficial owner of 16.2% of the Preferred Stock.

    (c) Number of shares as to which the person has:

    Sole power to vote or to direct the vote


    (ii) Shared power to vote or to direct the vote


    (iii) Sole power to dispose or to direct the disposition of


    (iv) Shared power to dispose or to direct the disposition of


    Instruction: For computations regarding securities which represent a right to acquire an underlying security see §240.13d-3(d)(1).


    Item 5. Ownership of Five Percent or Less of a Class.

    If this statement is being filed to report the fact that as of the date hereof the reporting person has ceased to be the beneficial owner of more than five percent of the class of securities, check the following [_]*.

    Instruction: Dissolution of a group requires a response to this item.

    Item 6. Ownership of More Than Five Percent on Behalf of Another Person.

    Not applicable

    Item 7. Identification and Classification of the Subsidiary Which Acquired the Security Being Reported on by the Parent Holding Company or Control Person.

    Not Applicable

    Item 8. Identification and Classification of Members of the Group.

    Not Applicable

    Item 9. Notice of Dissolution of Group.

    Not Applicable

    Item 10. Certification.

    By signing below I certify that, to the best of my knowledge and belief, the securities referred to above were not acquired and are not held for the purpose of or with the effect of changing or influencing the control of the issuer of the securities and were not acquired and are not held in connection with or as a participant in any transaction having that purpose or effect, other than activities solely in connection with a nomination under § 240.14a-11 .



    After reasonable inquiry and to the best of my knowledge and belief, I certify that the information set forth in this statement is true, complete and correct.


    /s/ Paul A. Jacobson

    Paul A. Jacobson as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Delta Air Lines, Inc.

    The original statement shall be signed by each person on whose behalf the statement is filed or his authorized representative. If the statement is signed on behalf of a person by his authorized representative other than an executive officer or general partner of the filing person, evidence of the representative's authority to sign on behalf of such person shall be filed with the statement, provided, however, that a power of attorney for this purpose which is already on file with the Commission may be incorporated by reference. The name and any title of each person who signs the statement shall be typed or printed beneath his signature.

    Note. Schedules filed in paper format shall include a signed original and five copies of the schedule, including all exhibits. See s.240.13d-7 for other parties for whom copies are to be sent.

    Attention. Intentional misstatements or omissions of fact constitute Federal criminal violations (see 18 U.S.C. 1001).

0.350.00(-0.62%)May 31 4:00 PMEDT