Beazer Homes USA Inc. Message Board

not_a_short 39 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 22 minutes ago Member since: Sep 9, 1999
  • Reply to

    Mr. Market is Making Me Buy

    by iahphx 3 hours ago
    not_a_short not_a_short 1 hour 22 minutes ago Flag

    AAL does seem to have a large margin of safety.

    Not_A_Short

  • not_a_short not_a_short 6 hours ago Flag

    It is not that tough a game. The current depressed stock price will work itself out. If AAL continues to earn anything near its estimates for this year and next, , the market adjust. In the meantime, the only thing AAL should do is continue doing what it has been doing, buyback its very inexpensive shares.

    Many here are confusing short-term price action with actual value.

    Not_A_Short

  • Reply to

    When this garbage was at 44

    by fredinpenn Jun 18, 2016 10:33 PM
    not_a_short not_a_short Jun 19, 2016 12:06 AM Flag

    Congratulations on your prediction. The very fact that your made a short-term price prediction tells me a lot about you as an investor. How long have you been at it? What is your long-term track record?

  • Reply to

    Ok, teech is clean, back to AAL's Liquidity

    by unclespeaking Jun 17, 2016 6:58 PM
    not_a_short not_a_short Jun 19, 2016 12:03 AM Flag

    For a CEO there is always the risk of a stock buyback looking bad if the stock declines. CEOs cannot predict short term price action better than anyone else. All you can do is make a decision based on whether you feel the stock is under-valued at current prices. If AAL management thought the stock was too cheap in the low 40s, they must feel it is even more attractive at recent quotes. I hope they stay the course and continue the buyback. Little has changed in the fundamental sense.

    It is asinine to blame management for not predicting the recent decline in the price of AAL stock. I have observed many buybacks over my 30 years investing, many make little sense. Companies often buyback over-priced stock in an attempt to prop up the stock price. That is not the case here. AAL has bought very inexpensive stock and I hope they continue to do so.

    I commend management with sticking with the course they started on.

    Not_A_Short

  • not_a_short by not_a_short Jun 17, 2016 11:52 AM Flag

    I just read a piece on TheStreet. It mentioned a new price target of $19. I am always amazed how the technical analysis guys get stuff published as though it is predictive in some way. I realize it is uncomfortable for many investors to accept that prices in the short term are unpredictable, but that is the reality. It is easy to think that a declining price mean that "someone knows something and it is bad news for the company", but this is rarely the case.

    I have never run across a fund or individual who has outperformed the market using technical analysis over the long term. (10yr or longer). I know many who have done so using fundamental analysis, especially using value are a key attribute in decision making.

    Not_A_Short

  • Reply to

    The oil market

    by dca1186 Jun 17, 2016 9:23 AM
    not_a_short not_a_short Jun 17, 2016 11:40 AM Flag

    The airlines are right in not hedging. It adds another layer of cost in exchange for a small amount of expense predictability.

    Not_A_Short

  • not_a_short by not_a_short Jun 16, 2016 2:53 PM Flag

    Not quite sure what the analyst means by that. A PE under 6 is not really a premium valuation.

    Not_A_Short

  • Reply to

    Watching a Train Wreck

    by scottgogo Jun 14, 2016 1:54 PM
    not_a_short not_a_short Jun 14, 2016 2:25 PM Flag

    In situations like this I wonder how anyone can think that markets are efficient.

    Not_A_Short

  • Reply to

    any bad news?

    by anhyeu1minhem Jun 13, 2016 9:45 AM
    not_a_short not_a_short Jun 14, 2016 12:51 PM Flag

    I would argue that the CEO is doing a remarkable job. The integration of 3 unionized carriers over the past decade was not an easy task.

    Not_A_Short

  • Reply to

    All In

    by kelway747 Jun 14, 2016 12:04 PM
    not_a_short not_a_short Jun 14, 2016 12:46 PM Flag

    I added today also. The valuation is compelling even if they were to have a substantial shortfall in earnings (which I am not really expecting). I thinks the shorts have this one wrong. (I have a significantly longer time horizon than most shorts)

    This is my largest position.

    Not_A_Short

  • Reply to

    any bad news?

    by anhyeu1minhem Jun 13, 2016 9:45 AM
    not_a_short not_a_short Jun 13, 2016 2:44 PM Flag

    In the short term,short term traders have a larger influence on the price of a stock than longer term investors. (It really is speculators vs investors). I think that is the case here.

    Longer term investors should take advantage of the excellent value AAL represents at these prices.

    Not_A_Short

  • not_a_short not_a_short Jun 6, 2016 5:26 PM Flag

    I not sure why you feel the need to call investors names. The arguments get unproductive once the insults start. The question of whether enough consolidation has occurred to support higher fares is a valid one. There clearly is less competition is some of their markets. (though there is still a lot a competition)

    Don't you think the extremely low PE already reflect the heightened competition?

    Not_A_Short

  • not_a_short not_a_short Jun 6, 2016 5:17 PM Flag

    I disagree. If you take away the low fuel they would have reduced earnings. Their earnings yield would shrink back to a normal level (10-12%) for a company in a cyclical industry. I would not be surprised to see low/moderate fuel prices persist for several years. Historically, just as it is hard to add new supplies of oil, it is difficult to reduce supplies. If fuel prices remain where they are, AAL will be have an earnings yield of about 20% for the next couple of years. I have rarely seen an earnings yield stay at that level for more than a year or so.

    I think the legacy airlines are excessively cheap due to the mixture of investors owning them. Few consider them attractive long-term investments. In the absence of a solid core of long-term investors, the stock price is driven by short-term investors to a greater degree than usual. It will take solid execution by the airlines over an extended period of time to lift the sentiment of the industry and attract more long-term investors.

    Not_A_Short

  • Reply to

    Doesn't anyone see value in UAL?

    by deepthought2030 May 31, 2016 10:25 AM
    not_a_short not_a_short Jun 3, 2016 10:05 PM Flag

    I would have to put AMZN and FB into the over-priced category. When are a very large cap stock and your PE exceeds one hundred you are over-valued and should be avoided. The only exception to this rule is when your industry or the economy is in a significant recession.

    Not_A_Short

  • Reply to

    Exciting Times

    by not_a_short Jun 3, 2016 12:38 PM
    not_a_short not_a_short Jun 3, 2016 9:54 PM Flag

    I was referring to the return of capital to shareholders via the buyback. I understand that some would prefer an increase in the dividend, but buying back shares when the earning yield is near 20% is very attractive.

    Not_A_Short

  • not_a_short by not_a_short Jun 3, 2016 12:38 PM Flag

    For those looking longer term, the present prices are very attractive. The valuation is reaching a compelling level. I continue to add to my holdings.

    I just hope Parker will stay on the course he has set.

    Not_A_Short

  • Reply to

    Doesn't anyone see value in UAL?

    by deepthought2030 May 31, 2016 10:25 AM
    not_a_short not_a_short Jun 2, 2016 2:08 AM Flag

    In the late 90s, well run, growing, consistently profitable companies had similar, ridiculous valuations. (PEs over 50 - some over 100, despite being maturing companies ... CSCO, MSFT, ORCL, and SUNW to name a few.) In hindsight, their valuations looked stupid. At the time, few questioned the valuations - their futures looked so bright. At the same time, anything viewed as low tech was overlooked. Quite a few well-run companies were stuck single digit PEs.

    Over the next 5 years the tech companies lost a substantial portion of their value (many over 50%), some are just reaching their former values today - some have never recovered despite 15+ years of solid growth (CSCO is one, it trades at about 1/3 its former value )

    The formerly overlooked stocks had a spectacular run over the next 5 years. Value Mutual Funds (especially small and mid-cap) recorded gains of over 100% from 2000-2004 while the broader market struggled to break even.

    It is truly puzzling that the fairly recent past is being overlooked. After the tech debacle of 2000, I would not have thought it possible for tech multiples to explode again for a generation.

    Not_A_Short

  • Reply to

    Someone reassure me of the 40% upside

    by not2old4cruisin Jun 1, 2016 11:29 AM
    not_a_short not_a_short Jun 1, 2016 1:44 PM Flag

    I think the upside is quite a bit higher. I value AAL at 9-10x current earnings. This translates into a 60-75% gain from current prices ($32). If we get a move to that valuation it could easily over-shoot a bit. It would not surprise me to see this double in the next couple of years.

    I cannot help you with the when. I have a strong track record but no insight as to the short-term price movements. (I doubt anyone can do that consistently)

    Not_A_Short

  • Reply to

    P/E Ratio

    by nuthead48 May 25, 2016 11:08 AM
    not_a_short not_a_short May 26, 2016 11:24 AM Flag

    That is not how the market factors in debt. The market rarely considers debt levels much except a bit during a big downturn or when a liquidity event occurs (having difficulty rolling over debt).

    The debt does act as a deterrent to a buyout/takeover.

    Not_A_Short

  • Reply to

    Tougher open than I'd expect

    by iahphx May 23, 2016 9:48 AM
    not_a_short not_a_short May 23, 2016 3:39 PM Flag

    I agree. Sometimes the market just prices a stock incorrectly. It is understandable given the industry history (lots a bankruptcies). Still, the market is pricing in a lot of bad things and will have to adjust if things do not materially get worse for AAL.

    This is my largest position by far.

    Not_A_Short

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