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People's United Financial Inc. Message Board

not_totally_gray 70 posts  |  Last Activity: 19 hours ago Member since: May 14, 1999
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  • not_totally_gray by not_totally_gray Feb 2, 2016 12:27 PM Flag

    revenue was down 30%... but cost of propane was down 39%. Chip in some nice reductions in selling/G&A expenses, and profitablilty is nicely higher with these low energy prices. Nice hedge if you own other MLPs.

  • Reply to

    Back on board at $15.10

    by clrodrick Jan 20, 2016 12:21 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Feb 2, 2016 2:26 PM Flag

    Something tells me the bottom has been set for these MLPs, at least for the good-quality midstream ones with viable business models that aren't dependent on external funding. They've all announced stable or increased quarterly distributions (except KMI); cut back cap ex plans; come up with financing plans for cap ex that don't rely on any more external capital (or have the financing already lined up). Howard Hinds points out that since mid-December, MLPs are actually out-performing the rest of the market, so it looks like even if the rest of the market continues melting down, it's just catching up to the MLPs. Looks like the extreme volatility is just noise, now it's just grind it out quarter by quarter and let your distributions compound. Upstream MLPs are still IMO completely uninvestable, but I think good-quality midstream has stopped bleeding.

  • not_totally_gray by not_totally_gray Feb 4, 2016 1:06 AM Flag

    Couldn't help noticing that over last 3 months, ETE is underperforming KMI by **45%** !! This, when KMI issued punitive preferreds at 10.75%, slashed div 75% and completely imploded. In meantime, ETE has maintained distribution, maintained credit rating, cut cap ex & funding needs, and announced no plans to issue new debt or equity, YTD the underperformance is even worse. This is arguably the most hated MLP in the world right now, IMO. The market **really really** thinks a distribution cut is coming, one way or another.

  • Reply to

    Safe Dividend

    by balooga2_2000 Feb 3, 2016 11:31 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Feb 4, 2016 8:45 AM Flag

    Even better, safe and growing (as per today's guidance).

  • Reply to

    ira

    by jvf1954 Jan 17, 2016 5:03 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Feb 4, 2016 8:05 PM Flag

    if you really want to do some research, Fidelity has good simple annuities for lifetime guaranteed income. Go to their website and see what kind of annuity you can get for your lump-sum payment and compare to monthly payment from your pension... I'd be shocked if your pension wasn't the better deal by a good margin. That said, if social security covers most of your fixed expenses, I'd consider taking the lump sum and buying good dividend-paying stocks that you can hand off to your family when you're gone.

  • Reply to

    Line to pass tax liability to investors?

    by barry_obummer Jan 25, 2016 4:38 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Feb 4, 2016 11:12 PM Flag

    Tell that to the IRS trying to collect on the tax bill. If necessary, the IRS can simply seize the shares -- or any other assets -- and liquidate until bill is paid off or there are no more assets if LNCO isn't forthcoming with the money and there is no other realistic prospect of getting paid.

  • Reply to

    Dividend?

    by crao1972 Feb 5, 2016 8:21 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Feb 5, 2016 9:49 AM Flag

    That's not correct -- as long as you own the stock before it goes ex-div, you still get the div even if you sell it before payment date.

  • Reply to

    5 Billion market cap just went poof

    by cashmonies_69 Feb 9, 2016 10:48 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Feb 9, 2016 11:22 AM Flag

    looks like all the health-care REITS are getting killed, not just HCN -- HCP, VTR, OHI, etc.-- but don't know what's up, don't see any obvious bad news for any of them. Some new govt regulation?

  • Reply to

    BXMT earnings beat estimates..

    by sam_0534 Feb 16, 2016 4:49 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Feb 16, 2016 5:03 PM Flag

    Payout is currently 95% so they won't raise it until they do a bunch of new deals. What I note from the presentation:
    • book value increased to $26.56, so current stock price is only 88% of book value.
    • 97% of the portfolio is senior debt, with average LTV of 64%. So this is an awfully conservative, high-quality portfolio to be priced at only 88% of book.
    • hard to see how they can raise equity capital to grow with stock price at 88% of book value, unless they start doing creative things with preferred stock and so on. They're certainly not over-levered but are not that under-levered that they can just borrow enough to meaningfully grow the portfolio.

  • not_totally_gray by not_totally_gray Feb 16, 2016 5:09 PM Flag

    ...to be Warren Buffet -- can buy absolutely any damn stock he wants, and as soon as the position is disclosed, everyone else drives the price up and guarantees a profit.

  • Reply to

    Buffet just put a floor on KMI...

    by carbokation Feb 16, 2016 6:00 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Feb 16, 2016 9:17 PM Flag

    One of the five best deals Buffet ever made was buying Mid American Energy years ago -- yes, a midstream pipeline company -- and their CEO, David Sokol, is typically included on the short list of possible Buffet successors, along with the head of Geico and their Reinsurance CEO. So you have to believe some smart, experienced midstream execs were behind this deal and they know *exactly* what they're doing. Would not be surprised to see this as an opening gambit to future deal -- Mid-American buying some assets from KMI? Participating in a JV with some of KMI's projects? Providing some capital or financing?

  • Reply to

    Picked up some at $24.85

    by sbeckwith Feb 11, 2016 11:03 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Feb 16, 2016 10:01 PM Flag

    Go to Fidelity website and look at a deferred fixed income annuity. This is (IMO) the only kind of annuity that makes any sense. You invest X, they will pay out Y every month, and that's it. You're basically buying your own pension. IMO look at what % of your basic expenses will be met by Social Security; then figure out how much you need to put into an annuity to pay the rest; and leave the rest of your portfolio invested in whatever stocks/bonds make sense for you, since you've covered you main risks you can sleep well at night. They've got a nice calculator so you can see what kind of income you can get depending on age/start date/survivor benefit, etc/

  • Reply to

    Buffet just put a floor on KMI...

    by carbokation Feb 16, 2016 6:00 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Feb 17, 2016 11:37 AM Flag

    They do own pipeline assets as part of the nat gas transmission outfit, they used to have sizeable NGL pipelines and similar but apparently they sold them to Enterprise at some point, which I didn't realize. But the point is still that their CEO Sokol and their mgmt team should be very familiar with what they're getting with KMI and it wouldn't surprise me if this winds up turning into something deeper.

  • not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Feb 17, 2016 2:26 PM Flag

    They can grow for a little while with debt, but at some point equity is necessary. Would be sporting at this point for Blackstone to step in with some support -- either buy shares on open market while they're below book value, or else invest in some preferred equity as a stop-gap.

  • Reply to

    iep has to raise equity

    by americananabolics Feb 19, 2016 2:47 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Feb 19, 2016 3:32 PM Flag

    The 2019 bonds are IMO a great deal... they've been selling off since beginning of year, so a possible downgrade has been expected since January, now yielding 9%. Great place to park some cash for 3 years, especially if you don't want to commit to a longer-term bond or a bond fund. IMO the chance of Icahn defaulting on this note is close to 0, seeing as he owns 90% of the common stock and there is plenty of cash flow to service the debt. I bought some because some of my other bonds are getting called and hopefully in 3 years I can replace them when rates are higher and I don't want to just sit on cash waiting for rates to rise.

  • Reply to

    Williams and CHK

    by l1collings Feb 22, 2016 6:11 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Feb 22, 2016 8:56 PM Flag

    I appreciate the comments from WMB mgmt and I'm sure there is some validity to them, but really, we've been hearing the same thing from so many companies over the past 2 years. I remember the frack sand companies talking about their "iron-clad" take-or-pay contracts, upstream dividends that are "secured" by hedges for next couple of years, etc, etc. We'll see how it goes.

  • not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Feb 24, 2016 1:15 PM Flag

    you need to have a strong stomach to be in this stock
    Even better, I've owned it almost 10 years and have a huge tax hit if I sell... no choice but to hang on.

  • Reply to

    What if the merger falls through?

    by commodityscott Feb 24, 2016 3:31 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Feb 24, 2016 4:22 PM Flag

    The combination of short-covering, removing the overhang of the $6 billion in new debt, and likely preservation of the distribution will send this rocketing higher. WMB will go higher because they will immediately resume the WPZ roll-up, just not as much. You're right that all of the arbs who bought WMB will dampen any rally. I wonder if someone else -- maybe a BRK? -- won't make a run at WMB now that the price has been so trashed if ETE is out of the picture.

  • not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Feb 24, 2016 5:37 PM Flag

    Right, DCF per unit only increased by 51% compared to 4Q last year.

  • Reply to

    ETE very solid numbers

    by leggendd30 Feb 24, 2016 5:27 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Feb 24, 2016 5:39 PM Flag

    ETP also covered distribution 1.07X for last qtr.
    ETE's DCF per share increased by 51% YOY -- and for this, unit price is down **80%** in past 12 months??

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