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Pioneer Southwest Energy Partners L.P. Message Board

not_totally_gray 43 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 12, 2014 2:00 PM Member since: May 14, 1999
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  • Reply to

    nice month

    by conjourtj82 Sep 8, 2014 8:17 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Sep 12, 2014 2:00 PM Flag

    hcp, ventas, omega, and hta are also all down just as much as HCN today.

  • Reply to

    VNR Issues Preferred C Units

    by buyandwin Sep 10, 2014 10:10 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Sep 10, 2014 4:38 PM Flag

    I'm wondering if they will need to pay more for this new issue, or less??

  • Reply to

    Wow it took a hit this week

    by naveeny1974 Aug 1, 2014 3:06 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Sep 10, 2014 1:21 PM Flag

    a month later, looks like that was a great buying opportunity.

  • Reply to

    VNR Issues Preferred C Units

    by buyandwin Sep 10, 2014 10:10 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Sep 10, 2014 10:43 AM Flag

    anyone know what the rate is? the prospectus simply leaves it blank. (not sure what the point is of issuing a 95-page prospectus that doesn't include the coupon rate, but I digress...)

  • Reply to

    Great Company in wrong sector

    by ben_bertanked_me Sep 8, 2014 12:46 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Sep 9, 2014 10:19 AM Flag

    watch short term rates
    by the time short-term rates actually start rising, HCLP's distribution will be 30% higher than it is now.

  • Reply to

    Sand stocks got ahead of themselves

    by brick_sht_house Sep 2, 2014 12:00 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Sep 4, 2014 2:37 PM Flag

    Another vital number that you have to look at -- that, surprisingly, lots of people don't -- is the distribution coverage ratio. HCLP has kind of a low yield relative to other MLPs, but the coverage ratio last qtr was 1.54X, so they're only paying out a portion of their cash flow, compared to other MLPs that pay out virtually all of it. If they paid out 90% of cash flow, the yield would be over 5%. That's why the distribution will grow so fast, much of the future expansion is being funded with retained cash.

  • not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Sep 4, 2014 2:27 PM Flag

    just being honest. sometime next year my ETE cost basis will hit zero, meaning if I want to sell ETE and buy something else, 25-30% of my principal goes straight into the IRS garbage can, so anything I buy needs to do that much better than ETE would have done to make up the difference. Or, looked at another way, the price needs to drop by 30% before the sale would make sense. Lots of other unitholders are in the same boat, it definitely discourages selling and contributes to the upward pressure on the stock price.

  • not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Sep 4, 2014 2:22 PM Flag

    Just hope they do not do a Kinder-type transaction.
    The lesson of the Kinder transaction is how much better it is owning the GP vs the LP. Basically the LPs swallowed a large distribution cut (+ the tax hit) as the price of getting rid of the IDR, funding a large dividend increase for the GP holders in the process. It's very likely that any similar transaction in the Energy Transfer family -- and it's certainly not out of the question, especially since they've seen the positive market reaction to the Kinder deal -- would wind up benefiting ETE holders at the expense of ETP unitholders.

  • not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Sep 2, 2014 7:51 PM Flag

    avoiding the ungodly capital gains and recaptured income taxes I would have to pay after 5+ years of ridiculous price appreciation.

  • Reply to

    Short Interest

    by dusty4433 Aug 28, 2014 7:25 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Aug 29, 2014 11:32 AM Flag

    I could understand people shorting EMES and buying HCLP as a paired trade, especially following the secondary-induced dip.

  • Reply to

    breaking out on big volume......

    by blu10duck Aug 28, 2014 11:47 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Aug 28, 2014 4:57 PM Flag

    you misunderstand -- the point of my comment was just how often HCLP has been going up like this -- a year ago it was in the 20's. wasn't at all trying to be negative towards you.

  • Reply to

    breaking out on big volume......

    by blu10duck Aug 28, 2014 11:47 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Aug 28, 2014 12:01 PM Flag

    kind of a broken record, isn't it? just copy and re-paste it every couple of weeks.

    probably nothing more complicated than the overhang from the recent offering has been absorbed.

  • not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Aug 19, 2014 9:38 AM Flag

    It's not *dilution* it's a couple million more shares hitting the market on the sell side. supply vs demand, that old story. If someone is selling millions of shares at one time, the price gets discounted to absorb them.
    a secondary factor is people may have been spooked because it was insiders -- in fact, the controlling partners -- who sold the shares, which never looks good. personally i think mgmt could have managed this better, but on the other hand I took advantage of the dip to buy some more shares yesterday, so ultimately I'll make a couple bucks from it.

  • Reply to

    Liking my distribution this quarter...

    by not_totally_gray Aug 15, 2014 7:46 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Aug 18, 2014 8:47 AM Flag

    "over time maybe they will get included in DJIA!"
    One of the drivers of the share price has to be index funds buying more shares. For every MLP fund/ETF that needs to sell KMP, there's a multiple of that needing to buy KMI.

  • not_totally_gray by not_totally_gray Aug 15, 2014 7:46 PM Flag

    The new shares this quarter had an effective price of $75 and change. So already a +33% gain when they hit my brokerage account -- the cherry on top of a quite profitable week for KMR folks.

  • Reply to

    I'm not seeing any advantage to shareholders

    by sandyc7606 Aug 13, 2014 6:10 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Aug 15, 2014 7:43 PM Flag

    " I'm concerned about what will happen after the dust settles. "
    Here's what we've learned:
    1) Kinder is an absolutely ruthless competitor. KMP unitholders took it right up the #$%$ for the greater future glory of the whole KMx empire. (KMR holders, by contrast, have done much better thanks to the shield afforded by our C-Corp status, but that is pure dumb luck on our part.) I think hedge fund sharpies are really going to think twice about future bear raids. You need to keep your money right next to his -- can you tell he had all of his money in KMI, not KMP?
    2) I think you can take your 10% future div increases to the bank. Did anyone else notice the slide in the investor presentation where he recaps the div forecasts for THE PAST THIRTEEN YEARS and compares them to actual results? Who on earth does that besides Kinder?
    3) Investing in an MLP opposite the GP is riskier than we thought. The GP is clearly the way to go when given the choice. ETP holders should take notice.
    4) This has been the most well-disguised dividend cut in corporate history. Our current dividend has been cut by 22% and the stock price is up by a third.
    5) There's no doubt in my mind that Kinder already knows the next move he wants to make. No question he's thinking a couple moves ahead on the chessboard. It's murky to us, not to him. Kinder's cost of capital has been slashed, you have to assume he has a good idea what to do with it.

  • Reply to

    Stealth dilution on the horizon

    by ncarbitrator Aug 13, 2014 4:33 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Aug 15, 2014 11:21 AM Flag

    They're already paying distributions on those units, just look at the last income statement -- they already report "fully diluted" numbers to account for those units:

    " The limited partners` interest in net income of $30.5 million for the second quarter of 2014 represents earnings of $0.94 per basic weighted average common * and subordinated unit* outstanding during the period. For purposes of calculating earnings per unit, $5.6 million of limited partners` interest in net income was allocated to the holder of incentive distribution rights and the Class B units, resulting in reported basic earnings per unit of $0.77 per common and subordinated unit.

    ... Distributable cash flow attributable to the Partnership for the second quarter of 2014 of $29.5 million corresponds to distribution coverage of 1.54 times the $19.1 million in distributions ** to be paid to common and subordinated unitholders ** on August 15, 2014.

    Nothing "stealthy" about it, it's all right there.

  • Reply to

    I'm not seeing any advantage to shareholders

    by sandyc7606 Aug 13, 2014 6:10 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Aug 15, 2014 9:43 AM Flag

    "I'm not seeing any advantage to shareholders"
    I'm seeing the price of my KMR shares breaking $100 as I'm typing this. That's a pretty compelling advantage right there.

  • Reply to

    kmr options

    by hjane58 Aug 12, 2014 5:52 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Aug 14, 2014 4:22 PM Flag

    seems simplest to just buy back the calls and remain fully invested -- KMI seems to be experiencing some nice accumulation now, even a single day out of the stock might cost you a couple more $$/shr like today. Plus KMR is still trading at a discount to the 2.489 KMI shares you'll collect.

  • not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Aug 14, 2014 3:26 PM Flag

    be interesting to see what happen to the warrants in another year (or less) when publicly traded options are available with similar expiration date and the two are trading side-by-side, especially if Kinder is buying warrants but not the options.

    If KMI delivers on the 10% annual div growth, the div will increase anywhere from 10-15% between the Jan 16 calls expiration and the 2017 warrants -- by itself, that could accrue an extra $6-$10 to the stock price and hence warrant value in that period. So it seems like the value proposition is, if you buy the 2016 calls now instead of the warrants, in Jan 16 how much will you need to pay for a May 2017 call with a $40 strike, vs the $1.60 cost now. Am I missing something?

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