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Pioneer Southwest Energy Partners L.P. Message Board

not_totally_gray 31 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 2, 2015 1:19 PM Member since: May 14, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Dividend is now 9.1%

    by naveeny1974 Aug 24, 2015 12:55 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Sep 2, 2015 1:19 PM Flag

    Make it 9.5% with the increase.

  • Reply to

    PDI UNI ending July 31 2015

    by naveeny1974 Aug 19, 2015 1:59 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Sep 2, 2015 1:18 PM Flag

    Note that PDI has been doing this *consistently* every single month since the IPO, this isn't some unusual circumstance. Every year there has been a large year-end extra distribution funded by the monthly UNII.

  • Reply to

    VNR bonds yield 17% to

    by hsfeld2001 Aug 28, 2015 4:34 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Sep 2, 2015 1:14 PM Flag

    without looking at it in detail, the general risk with bonds from any of these companies is before they come due VNR will do some sort of debt-equity swap and you'll wind up owning stock instead of getting your principal back. Of course, that's also a big risk for the current equity holders, who would most likely get massively diluted, but that's the benefit of owning the debt instead of common units. This scenario is more likely if the bonds are being accumulated by vulture investors who are hoping for a back-door way to get control of the company and/or VNR suspends the distribution at some point and the extra shares don't cost them anything. I think LINE is already most of the way there, but VNR not so much at this point.

  • Reply to

    I've played this like a Stradivarius...

    by doogoo1 Aug 14, 2015 10:10 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Aug 14, 2015 10:43 AM Flag

    You might also consider KYE... KMI is biggest holding (plus a number of other name-brand MLPs), yields almost 12%, something like 14% discount to NAV. Just a straight CEF, not an ETN.

  • not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Aug 14, 2015 9:44 AM Flag

    What you want to look for are companies that can pay for expansion projects with retained cash flow -- commodity price decline and lower upstream cap ex will compress investment returns, while lower MLP equity prices will increase cost of capital, compressing returns further. You want companies like MMP and EPD who retain enough cash flow after paying the distribution to pay for growth projects without needing to issue new units. Unfortunately KMI does not fall in this group -- based on their own "sensitivity" numbers, an awful lot of their "excess" cash flow (which wasn't great to begin with) will get likely chewed up by lower oil prices. CVX is still running a massive cash flow deficit between dividend and cap ex that is "projected" to turn positive... in a couple of years? If everything works out? Even a frac sand company like HCLP is funding all of their development + distribution with current cash flow even at current prices, so all upside when demand picks up.

  • Reply to

    Any chance of a buyout?

    by moakeybear Aug 3, 2015 3:00 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Aug 6, 2015 4:11 PM Flag

    the big problem here is that as an MLP, not a regular corporation, the GP can basically decide to sell out to whoever they want and we can't do squat about it -- not like a regular corporation where shareholders have to approve it, as limited partners our rights are really limited. So all someone has to do is wave some stock options at mgmt and they're free to sell us down the river.

  • Reply to

    Ugly

    by parisite76 Aug 3, 2015 9:38 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Aug 6, 2015 10:15 AM Flag

    Every time I read about how "little guys" can't compete with "sophisticated" professional investors I laugh. It's the Wall Street "pros" who are panicking and dumping stocks like this at these levels, not retail investors.

  • Reply to

    what am I not seeing?

    by kenwood031888 Jul 21, 2015 1:53 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Aug 6, 2015 10:06 AM Flag

    But don't forget, a lot of wind power for power generation is replacing nuclear power plants, that used to be a large % of europe's (and US) power generation but is even more unfashionable than oil. And energy needs in developing markets will drive demand for oil/nat gas/nat gas liquids for a long time as consumer classes develop. US will import less and less oil as Asian markets continue to develop which IMO will continue to drive US energy infrastructure.

  • Reply to

    Ugly

    by parisite76 Aug 3, 2015 9:38 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Aug 5, 2015 9:44 PM Flag

    Just buy a few more shares, no need to go nuts... if decline continues, buy a few more. Just opened my first TRGP position last week with a small purchase. Was ugly in 2008 too when the bottom fell out, but the good companies just kept raising distributions quarter after quarter.

  • Reply to

    Reverse the play..WMB takes ETE

    by woolyboogoor Jul 14, 2015 2:11 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Aug 5, 2015 9:34 PM Flag

    quick glance, earnings look awesome. what can you say about increasing dist by 36% YOY and still delivering 1.19X coverage? Current MLP selloff is complete bull****.

  • Reply to

    Any chance of a buyout?

    by moakeybear Aug 3, 2015 3:00 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Aug 4, 2015 3:13 PM Flag

    I think the way a buyout happens would be a private equity company taking it private in cooperation with mgmt. Enjoy the cash flow for a couple of years, take it public again in a couple of years, and mgmt gets fat stock options based on current low price. Since it's a partnership, the GP can do that without shareholder approval.

  • Reply to

    Sandridge Bankruptcy(SD) and it's affect on PER

    by mouwy Jul 30, 2015 7:33 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Aug 3, 2015 9:51 AM Flag

    good question. I would have assumed that PER was insulated from an SD bankruptcy as a completely separate corporation, but I suppose if the royalty payments flow from SD to PER then they might be considered just another SD liability. There is probably language in the PER prospectus that specifically addresses that.

  • Reply to

    Halt distribution and do a buyback

    by elambrian Jul 30, 2015 11:16 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jul 30, 2015 3:21 PM Flag

    LINE is doing it right... at some point, the most likely way these upstream MLPs will be able to reduce debt to appropriate levels for a $60-$70 price environment is a debt-for-equity swap that would massively dilute current unitholders. By buying back debt directly instead of buying back shares, they are accomplishing essentially the same thing, but at much less cost to current unitholders. If they are actually generating as much excess cash as they say they are with hedges through 2016, they can buy back shares later once they've addressed their debt, now that they've trashed the price by eliminating the dividend.

  • Reply to

    Venting...

    by not_totally_gray Jul 24, 2015 11:16 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jul 28, 2015 12:46 PM Flag

    I've owned it since 2008, so I know the drill... I also know perfectly well what will happen to AMZN, NFLX, etc -- just a repeat of the "nifty fifty" days of the late 60s, at some point when fashion changes they will just turn into dead money for decades even if the businesses themselves are perfectly fine. Just painful to watch, though.

  • not_totally_gray by not_totally_gray Jul 24, 2015 11:16 AM Flag

    I know it's irrelevant, but AMZN announces a *surprise* profit of $0.19 and the stock goes up over $80??? Because this is "growth"? "Growth" is raising distribution for 11 straight quarters including Y-O-Y 36% increase yet ETE is actually down today while AMZN is up over $80!! For 19 cents in profit!!
    Looked at another way, just the *increase* in AMZN's market cap *today* is over *double* ETE's entire market cap. Sheesh...

  • Reply to

    People are stupid

    by eds73s Jul 20, 2015 8:10 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jul 23, 2015 9:45 AM Flag

    Lots of money leaving energy sector and MLP stocks in general -- I suspect lots of funds that own these stocks on leverage need to sell, and when you need to sell, you don't necessarily have a lot of choice. With latest distribution increase, now yielding 4.3% -- how long has it been since yield was that high??

  • Reply to

    KMI Warrants

    by rossrogers89 Jul 21, 2015 5:52 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jul 22, 2015 9:46 AM Flag

    I think the warrants tend to go through periods where they are very overpriced -- specifically, relative to the publicly traded options -- and this is just kind of closing the gap. Probably a lot of that is because I suspect when KMI is actively buying warrants, it obviously artificially supports the price relative to the options.

  • not_totally_gray by not_totally_gray Jul 22, 2015 8:26 AM Flag

    with oil down and apple leading the rest of market lower... silver lining is, hopefully now that dist cut is out there, maybe we can finally put in a bottom.

  • not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jul 21, 2015 10:57 AM Flag

    I'd estimate $0.50 - 0.55? The hedges have ended, but I believe this distribution will include two months that were hedged.

  • Reply to

    Absurd

    by the_stakeholder Jul 17, 2015 10:01 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jul 20, 2015 4:04 PM Flag

    then it's insider information for all the other sand companies and a good chunk of other midstream companies too.

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