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ACI Worldwide, Inc. Message Board

not_totally_gray 29 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 30, 2015 3:21 PM Member since: May 14, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Halt distribution and do a buyback

    by elambrian Jul 30, 2015 11:16 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jul 30, 2015 3:21 PM Flag

    LINE is doing it right... at some point, the most likely way these upstream MLPs will be able to reduce debt to appropriate levels for a $60-$70 price environment is a debt-for-equity swap that would massively dilute current unitholders. By buying back debt directly instead of buying back shares, they are accomplishing essentially the same thing, but at much less cost to current unitholders. If they are actually generating as much excess cash as they say they are with hedges through 2016, they can buy back shares later once they've addressed their debt, now that they've trashed the price by eliminating the dividend.

  • Reply to

    Venting...

    by not_totally_gray Jul 24, 2015 11:16 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jul 28, 2015 12:46 PM Flag

    I've owned it since 2008, so I know the drill... I also know perfectly well what will happen to AMZN, NFLX, etc -- just a repeat of the "nifty fifty" days of the late 60s, at some point when fashion changes they will just turn into dead money for decades even if the businesses themselves are perfectly fine. Just painful to watch, though.

  • not_totally_gray by not_totally_gray Jul 24, 2015 11:16 AM Flag

    I know it's irrelevant, but AMZN announces a *surprise* profit of $0.19 and the stock goes up over $80??? Because this is "growth"? "Growth" is raising distribution for 11 straight quarters including Y-O-Y 36% increase yet ETE is actually down today while AMZN is up over $80!! For 19 cents in profit!!
    Looked at another way, just the *increase* in AMZN's market cap *today* is over *double* ETE's entire market cap. Sheesh...

  • Reply to

    People are stupid

    by eds73s Jul 20, 2015 8:10 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jul 23, 2015 9:45 AM Flag

    Lots of money leaving energy sector and MLP stocks in general -- I suspect lots of funds that own these stocks on leverage need to sell, and when you need to sell, you don't necessarily have a lot of choice. With latest distribution increase, now yielding 4.3% -- how long has it been since yield was that high??

  • Reply to

    KMI Warrants

    by rossrogers89 Jul 21, 2015 5:52 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jul 22, 2015 9:46 AM Flag

    I think the warrants tend to go through periods where they are very overpriced -- specifically, relative to the publicly traded options -- and this is just kind of closing the gap. Probably a lot of that is because I suspect when KMI is actively buying warrants, it obviously artificially supports the price relative to the options.

  • not_totally_gray by not_totally_gray Jul 22, 2015 8:26 AM Flag

    with oil down and apple leading the rest of market lower... silver lining is, hopefully now that dist cut is out there, maybe we can finally put in a bottom.

  • not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jul 21, 2015 10:57 AM Flag

    I'd estimate $0.50 - 0.55? The hedges have ended, but I believe this distribution will include two months that were hedged.

  • Reply to

    Absurd

    by the_stakeholder Jul 17, 2015 10:01 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jul 20, 2015 4:04 PM Flag

    then it's insider information for all the other sand companies and a good chunk of other midstream companies too.

  • Reply to

    Short attack/bad qtr leak?

    by ramstocks Jul 17, 2015 4:12 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jul 20, 2015 10:36 AM Flag

    I've been watching the same thing in HCLP. My best guess is some large holders or funds own on margin and are liquidating because they have to. It just feels like a lot of liquidity is getting sucked out.

  • Reply to

    Why is price droppng in premarket?

    by usenatgas Jul 13, 2015 9:09 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jul 13, 2015 9:14 AM Flag

    MPLX is down 9% in premarket, so all of a sudden your $74/shr is now $67 or so.

  • Reply to

    pre-market

    by rick4family Jul 7, 2015 8:42 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jul 7, 2015 9:37 AM Flag

    almost 25% drop in less than 2 days of trading? Way more than other sand companies too -- either someone knows something and we're the last to find out, or simply panic selling and if you sell now you'll feel like a complete idiot later. no way to know for sure...

  • Reply to

    We just got rear ended

    by sierra_whiskey_fife_niner_fife Jul 1, 2015 10:07 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jul 1, 2015 10:20 AM Flag

    but what are the odds of this deal actually closing? shareholders still need to approve it, and CSG insiders only own 1% of the float, and all institutions own less than half -- this isn't one of those deals where insiders control the float and can ram it down minority shareholders, most of the stock is owned by individual retail folks. all you have to do is vote no. the only way this happens is if folks are too ignorant to vote (which, admittedly, is a possibility).
    IMO the only way this happens is if CSG amends the deal so that CSG shareholders get a one-time special cash div before deal closes or something like that to make up for the lower income.

  • Reply to

    buy under

    by ruswise Jul 1, 2015 7:20 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jul 1, 2015 10:00 AM Flag

    hard to see how this deal closes. based on the 56-44 split, if you look at the total div payments of the two companies, CSG shareholders are looking at a 20% cut. don't see any reason at all why they would vote to approve this deal -- insiders only control 1% of CSG stock, most of the float is individual investors. CSG stock is plunging now, which means value to GPT shareholders is also falling, so not sure why GPT shareholders would approve it either.

  • Reply to

    Merger

    by ou71764 Jul 1, 2015 7:23 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jul 1, 2015 9:52 AM Flag

    conversely, GPT shareholders would get a 50% increase.

  • Reply to

    Merger

    by ou71764 Jul 1, 2015 7:23 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jul 1, 2015 9:51 AM Flag

    I did the math too, got the same numbers. Am I missing something, why on earth would CSG shareholders vote to approve this deal?

  • Reply to

    Merger

    by ou71764 Jul 1, 2015 7:23 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jul 1, 2015 8:40 AM Flag

    GPT div is 0.88/shr, CSG is 0.51, so 3.1898 shares = $1.63 -- almost double current div. Will CSG cut the div rate post-close, or are GPT holders getting a huge increase?

  • ...just because ETE unfortunately happens to be the same ticker symbol as National Bank of Greece on their local exchange?

  • Reply to

    One reason to buy...

    by sam_0534 Jun 22, 2015 9:52 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jun 25, 2015 9:42 AM Flag

    My best guess is we're just getting lumped in with all the other mortgage REITs like NLY even though this is a completely different business -- those all seem to be selling near 52-week lows.

  • Reply to

    Expect a big jump on Monday

    by polygeo200 Jun 21, 2015 11:36 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jun 22, 2015 11:53 AM Flag

    With ETE stock performing so strongly relative to other companies, it makes all the sense in the world for them to use it to acquire someone else. I notice that there is no mention made of taking on new debt in the proposed deal. If you can replace someone else's 5% yielding stock with your own 2.8% stock, that works out pretty well. Plus I think laying the Transco pipeline to NE on top of ETE's existing footprint is a complete slam-dunk.

  • Reply to

    time to get some more dry powder

    by ruswise Jun 1, 2015 5:07 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jun 3, 2015 12:54 PM Flag

    well yeah, it would -- that's how they get money to do deals. Their ROE is 11% off $24/shr book value, so selling new shares above book value and reinvesting the capital at 10% means we first make money because of the premium to book value, then more money because they leverage that equity, than more money off the spread between cost of leverage and what they get from the loans they make. That should repeat more or less every quarter = higher divs for us. Maybe they'll sell new shares for $30 and we'll make relatively more money? Or sell shares at $28.50 and we'll make relatively less? But as long as they're not selling new shares below book value and ROE is at least greater than the dividend rate, we come out ahead.

ACIW
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