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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited Message Board

not_totally_gray 54 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 21, 2015 8:01 PM Member since: May 14, 1999
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  • Reply to

    So what was that all about?

    by chinookcook2000 Jan 21, 2015 6:36 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jan 21, 2015 8:01 PM Flag

    normally I don't pay any attention to stuff like this, but $40 was a pretty hard double-bottom last fall, so I suppose it's not surprising that it would be a ceiling now -- today's high @ 39.59 just a little too convenient?

  • not_totally_gray by not_totally_gray Jan 21, 2015 12:25 PM Flag

    Thought these comments (from Charles Sizemore) were interesting --

    "Yes, the fracking revolution has turned the U.S. into an energy powerhouse again. American crude oil production is up 45% since 2000. And Russia and Canada have seen even bigger boosts to crude production, up 56% and 78%, respectively. (Note: Data are for crude oil and lease condensate and are through September 2014; they exclude natural gas plant liquids.)

    Yet production has collapsed in several traditional producers, such as Norway, Mexico, the United Kingdom and Venezuela. Overall, world output is only up about 13% since 2000. That’s less than 1% per year.

    The crude oil glut is looking a lot more like a dearth of demand than an abundance of new supply.

    Some of this is due to efficiency gains, of course. But we’re also seeing warning signs elsewhere. Retail sales were lower in December…despite the drop in gasoline prices that was supposed to give consumers extra cash to spend. The 30-year Treasury bond yield hit new all-time lows last week — yes, as in the lowest yields in history — and finished the week yielding 2.44%. And core Consumer Price Index inflation, which excludes energy and food, came in lower than expected at 1.6% for the year."

    Kind of supports the idea that fracking growth is an independent trend that is larger-scale than what is happening in current market and will continue to be necessary to meet worldwide oil demand. Couple that with what is happening in domestic nat gas market, the LT outlook for HCLP continues to be bright, IMO.

  • not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jan 19, 2015 8:49 AM Flag

    this isn't the average MLP... profit margins on selling sand are ridiculous compared to operating a pipeline, there's no way they can shield it all with non-cash charges.

  • not_totally_gray by not_totally_gray Jan 16, 2015 10:43 AM Flag

    " Year over year, we have increased our quarterly distribution by 32%. We remain committed to delivering double digit annual growth in our distributions to our unit holders through similar quarterly increases.""

    After all the speculation and forecasts and what-not, at the end of the day, money talks.

  • not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jan 15, 2015 1:12 PM Flag

    Realistically, you have to expect that a certain % of these "long-term" contracts will wind up being renegotiated. Even if HCLP has iron-clad language where they don't have to, if you're running a business in the real world you need to manage your relationships with your customers, and if that's what it takes to keep your customer, you do it if it makes sense. It does them no good to take a hard-line enforcing current contracts at customers' expense, if you piss them off and they jump to your competitor as soon as contract is up. Especially with all the sand companies adding so much capacity. Renegotiating volume commitments/flexibility in favor of longer-term and/or better pricing might make sense for everyone, even if there is a short-term hit to cash flow.

  • Reply to

    From Bloomberg 1/15/2014

    by buybackerer Jan 15, 2015 10:56 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jan 15, 2015 1:06 PM Flag

    That's nice as far as it goes, but the reason things are selling off isn't because of current drilling, but what happens 6-9-12 months from now. I think HCLP will be fine even so, but these ultra-short-term "everything is fine" articles miss the point.

  • Reply to

    I hate to point this out, but . . .

    by bicepsbunny Jan 8, 2015 4:31 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jan 13, 2015 10:04 AM Flag

    your event risk on the short side is simply that the Saudis/UAE announce a "deal" after all to reduce production, and oil shoots up $30 overnight.

  • Reply to


    by maven37514 Jan 12, 2015 10:19 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jan 12, 2015 11:03 AM Flag

    no one cares anymore about 2015 hedges -- the questions are, a) what does bbep's profitability (and distribution outlook) look like if oil price recovers to, say, mid-60s instead of mid-90s; b) what happens to their cost of capital for developing and maintaining production; and c) what happens to current equity holders if they need to raise new equity at terms that are massively dilutive to current shareholders?
    This is nothing specific to bbep, of course, they apply to all leveraged e&p and related companies, but those are the risks that are driving the latest rounds of selling, not the 2015 cash flow/distribution.

  • not_totally_gray by not_totally_gray Jan 9, 2015 12:38 PM Flag

    if the price of natural gas liquids is down along with oil & nat gas, that should reduce APU's cost as well, shouldn't it? And current frigid weather should be supporting retail price? So APU should be pretty well positioned for current market.

  • Reply to

    Excerpt from Nov 24 2014 seekingalpha

    by buybackerer Jan 7, 2015 10:16 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jan 8, 2015 9:50 AM Flag

    nope, that was *sale* price in the 30s. Yahoo won't let me post a link to the article -- apparently you are no longer allowed to include links to people who don't pay money to yahoo -- but this excerpt gives you the idea:

    Crude prices on the NYMEX fell below $50 a barrel briefly on Monday, but managed to close the trading day at $50.04. Tuesday morning the price fell to $48.47 in early electronic trading.

    The really bad news is the price that Plains Marketing is offering to pay for crude oil produced in the Bakken shale play. Williston Basin Sweet (equivalent to WTI) fetched just $33.44 a barrel on Monday; Williston Basin Sour fetched just $24.33. No other grade of crude on the Plains price bulletin was priced lower than Williston Sour.

    In our earlier look at the top producers in the Bakken, we noted the added transportation costs of $19 a barrel for Bakken crude headed by rail to the east coast and $11 a barrel for crude headed to the Gulf coast by pipeline. Adding the transportation cost to east coast refineries to the posted price of $33.44 gives a price per barrel at the refinery of $52.44. Because east coast crude is benchmarked to Brent, not WTI, the price paid was 1.2% below Monday’s closing price of $53.11 per barrel of Brent.

    The calculation for Bakken crude headed for the Gulf coast is similar, though slightly worse. The impact on Bakken producers’ stock was immediate and unpleasant.

  • Reply to

    Excerpt from Nov 24 2014 seekingalpha

    by buybackerer Jan 7, 2015 10:16 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jan 7, 2015 12:30 PM Flag

    the article I read said $11/barrel

  • Reply to

    Excerpt from Nov 24 2014 seekingalpha

    by buybackerer Jan 7, 2015 10:16 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jan 7, 2015 11:08 AM Flag

    I think the basin that's really getting creamed is the Bakken -- was reading that prices for Bakken crude are $30 and lower, because of the extra transportation costs to ship it via rail or truck.

  • Reply to

    Gentleman's bet.... HCLP increases Qtr distribution

    by yeemkj Jan 5, 2015 1:03 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jan 6, 2015 12:34 PM Flag

    I'm assuming (and hoping) that all of these sand companies will take a break from the relentless capacity expansion projects they've all been pursuing... if so, that should free up more cash flow to fund a distribution increase.

  • Reply to

    A look into the future of PER

    by sjsrhs Dec 30, 2014 5:11 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jan 5, 2015 11:34 AM Flag

    I believe they are hedged only through 1st qtr of 2015, so basically two more distributions.

  • Reply to

    Thinking about investing in BBEP

    by whiskyglen Dec 30, 2014 2:02 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Dec 30, 2014 9:47 PM Flag

    First off, like several other posters, thank you for your service. Not to belabor the obvious, but this is a small, leveraged, risky oil company. As such, I would suggest you hedge your investment in BBEP by splitting your money with another company that is completely different, such as a large, blue-chip company that will benefit if oil continues to decline or stay down. Something like UPS comes to mind. Also suggest splitting your BBEP with another MLP that is more nat gas, less oil, like VNR.

    Putting all your eggs in one basket, especially something like BBEP, is silly. Please disregard everyone talking about the 2015 hedges: it buys a couple more quarters for the distribution, and that's all. The market is discounting the risk beyond 2015 if oil stays $60 or below, and that a company like BBEP runs into serious liquidity and/or balance sheet concerns that permanently trashes the equity holders. Not trying to knock BBEP -- the profit potential is certainly real -- but simply being realistic that a company with a reasonable chance of tripling your money in one year has a reasonable risk of the exact opposite. Good luck.

  • Reply to

    Distribution eliminated?

    by bridgejumper08 Dec 29, 2014 2:12 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Dec 30, 2014 11:37 AM Flag

    that announcement is for the preferred shares, not the common units.

  • Reply to

    How they will pay DIV?

    by eejjww36 Dec 23, 2014 10:53 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Dec 29, 2014 2:38 PM Flag

    I can't imagine that they would borrow to pay distribution... they will want to preserve as much borrowing capacity as possible for development expense + build up liquidity against whenever their next maturity is + (hopefully) the ability to buy properties at fire-sale prices, which you have to assume will start to be available. The smart thing is to look at what their cash flow will be in 9-12 months as hedges roll off assuming current prices, and cut distribution to that number sooner rather than later, and build up a cash/liquidity reserve with the difference.

    Based on their latest table of price sensitivity, they'd be at about 85% coverage at current prices. But only 30% of their oil is hedged for 2016, so presumably as 2015 progresses and current hedges expire, that coverage will get worse and worse. In current environment, not maintaining conservative coverage of at least 1.1X coverage is simply silly. Their price sensitivity table was posted at end of October, and only shows oil down to $70, and it's already dropped to $55.

  • Reply to


    by willispopeiii Dec 26, 2014 12:23 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Dec 29, 2014 10:23 AM Flag

    looks like today is the make-up day... another example where inefficient markets are your friend.

  • Reply to


    by willispopeiii Dec 26, 2014 12:23 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Dec 26, 2014 3:42 PM Flag

    I've noticed the A shares have been very strong relative to the B and C shares for a while now... A shares yielding 9.25%, C shares 10.65%, with B shares a bit less than the C. B & C shares have about $2 of headroom before the yield is comparable to A, I think it's only a matter of time before that gap closes.

    Volume today is comparable for all three, with the A shares in the middle. Best guess is that this is simply the sort of thing that happens with thinly traded securities? and it is a good opportunity to profit from it. Someone who wants to accumulate as few as 10,000 shares can probably swing the market dramatically.

  • Reply to

    PDI will trade lower into $28 price range

    by ampex_a_dud Dec 24, 2014 10:42 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Dec 24, 2014 6:25 PM Flag

    I think sending half your money to each is probably a great idea -- they're arguably the two best fixed income mgrs in America. Both will probably figure out a way to make money in 2015 no matter what. I doubt the fixed-income market is quite as binary and simple as you make it out to me.

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