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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited Message Board

not_totally_gray 29 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 30, 2015 3:21 PM Member since: May 14, 1999
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  • Reply to

    time to get some more dry powder

    by ruswise Jun 1, 2015 5:07 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jun 2, 2015 8:40 AM Flag

    not only all the properties from GE, but a billion $$ of other properties as well... nice to see no other reason for a share offering except to pay for accretive acquisiitons that have already closed and are already making us money. I'll certainly take advantage of the discount and pick up a couple more shares this morning.

  • Reply to

    time to get some more dry powder

    by ruswise Jun 1, 2015 5:07 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jun 2, 2015 4:09 PM Flag

    looks like a very positive market reaction to the deal... only had to offer a 2.5% discount to place the shares, and made back almost half of that on volume over 9 million shares. REITs everywhere have been selling off all spring, BXMT has held up well.

  • Reply to

    Expect a big jump on Monday

    by polygeo200 Jun 21, 2015 11:36 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jun 22, 2015 11:53 AM Flag

    With ETE stock performing so strongly relative to other companies, it makes all the sense in the world for them to use it to acquire someone else. I notice that there is no mention made of taking on new debt in the proposed deal. If you can replace someone else's 5% yielding stock with your own 2.8% stock, that works out pretty well. Plus I think laying the Transco pipeline to NE on top of ETE's existing footprint is a complete slam-dunk.

  • Reply to

    We just got rear ended

    by sierra_whiskey_fife_niner_fife Jul 1, 2015 10:07 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jul 1, 2015 10:20 AM Flag

    but what are the odds of this deal actually closing? shareholders still need to approve it, and CSG insiders only own 1% of the float, and all institutions own less than half -- this isn't one of those deals where insiders control the float and can ram it down minority shareholders, most of the stock is owned by individual retail folks. all you have to do is vote no. the only way this happens is if folks are too ignorant to vote (which, admittedly, is a possibility).
    IMO the only way this happens is if CSG amends the deal so that CSG shareholders get a one-time special cash div before deal closes or something like that to make up for the lower income.

  • Reply to

    time to get some more dry powder

    by ruswise Jun 1, 2015 5:07 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jun 3, 2015 12:54 PM Flag

    well yeah, it would -- that's how they get money to do deals. Their ROE is 11% off $24/shr book value, so selling new shares above book value and reinvesting the capital at 10% means we first make money because of the premium to book value, then more money because they leverage that equity, than more money off the spread between cost of leverage and what they get from the loans they make. That should repeat more or less every quarter = higher divs for us. Maybe they'll sell new shares for $30 and we'll make relatively more money? Or sell shares at $28.50 and we'll make relatively less? But as long as they're not selling new shares below book value and ROE is at least greater than the dividend rate, we come out ahead.

  • Reply to

    Halt distribution and do a buyback

    by elambrian Jul 30, 2015 11:16 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jul 30, 2015 3:21 PM Flag

    LINE is doing it right... at some point, the most likely way these upstream MLPs will be able to reduce debt to appropriate levels for a $60-$70 price environment is a debt-for-equity swap that would massively dilute current unitholders. By buying back debt directly instead of buying back shares, they are accomplishing essentially the same thing, but at much less cost to current unitholders. If they are actually generating as much excess cash as they say they are with hedges through 2016, they can buy back shares later once they've addressed their debt, now that they've trashed the price by eliminating the dividend.

  • Reply to

    blackstone gives it to shareholders again

    by davidandkathy1 May 4, 2015 12:42 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray May 4, 2015 2:00 PM Flag

    This stock doesn't have anything to do with Blackstone the big wall street firm (BX). This is "Black Stone" -- two words -- not associated with Blackstone at all. At least I'm pretty sure -- that was one of the things I specifically tried to figure out in the prospectus.

  • Reply to

    outof money calls

    by colonelflashmanvc May 9, 2015 8:28 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray May 26, 2015 10:14 AM Flag

    One of the problems with writing calls on a high-div security is that because the option-pricing model adjusts for future dividends, call prices are relatively low and put prices are relatively high, compared to other stocks with similar price volatility. So the premium for selling calls is much lower relative to the risk of it being called away. so IMO the risk/reward is skewed in favor of either buying calls or selling puts.

  • Reply to

    One reason to buy...

    by sam_0534 Jun 22, 2015 9:52 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jun 25, 2015 9:42 AM Flag

    My best guess is we're just getting lumped in with all the other mortgage REITs like NLY even though this is a completely different business -- those all seem to be selling near 52-week lows.

  • Reply to


    by ou71764 Jul 1, 2015 7:23 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jul 1, 2015 9:51 AM Flag

    I did the math too, got the same numbers. Am I missing something, why on earth would CSG shareholders vote to approve this deal?

  • Reply to


    by ou71764 Jul 1, 2015 7:23 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jul 1, 2015 8:40 AM Flag

    GPT div is 0.88/shr, CSG is 0.51, so 3.1898 shares = $1.63 -- almost double current div. Will CSG cut the div rate post-close, or are GPT holders getting a huge increase?

  • Reply to


    by rick4family Jul 7, 2015 8:42 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jul 7, 2015 9:37 AM Flag

    almost 25% drop in less than 2 days of trading? Way more than other sand companies too -- either someone knows something and we're the last to find out, or simply panic selling and if you sell now you'll feel like a complete idiot later. no way to know for sure...

  • not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jul 21, 2015 10:57 AM Flag

    I'd estimate $0.50 - 0.55? The hedges have ended, but I believe this distribution will include two months that were hedged.

  • not_totally_gray by not_totally_gray Jul 22, 2015 8:26 AM Flag

    with oil down and apple leading the rest of market lower... silver lining is, hopefully now that dist cut is out there, maybe we can finally put in a bottom.

  • not_totally_gray by not_totally_gray Jul 24, 2015 11:16 AM Flag

    I know it's irrelevant, but AMZN announces a *surprise* profit of $0.19 and the stock goes up over $80??? Because this is "growth"? "Growth" is raising distribution for 11 straight quarters including Y-O-Y 36% increase yet ETE is actually down today while AMZN is up over $80!! For 19 cents in profit!!
    Looked at another way, just the *increase* in AMZN's market cap *today* is over *double* ETE's entire market cap. Sheesh...

  • Reply to


    by not_totally_gray Jul 24, 2015 11:16 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jul 28, 2015 12:46 PM Flag

    I've owned it since 2008, so I know the drill... I also know perfectly well what will happen to AMZN, NFLX, etc -- just a repeat of the "nifty fifty" days of the late 60s, at some point when fashion changes they will just turn into dead money for decades even if the businesses themselves are perfectly fine. Just painful to watch, though.

  • Reply to

    This market is Psycho

    by tooncat111 Apr 29, 2015 10:23 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray May 4, 2015 2:04 PM Flag

    I'm guessing that a lot of the EMES action today is short covering by folks who shorted last week before earning announcement and now are just routinely covering after the news. Daily action in all of these sand companies seems dominated by day traders, more so than most other MLPs.

  • Reply to

    Conference call

    by dadeeo100 May 6, 2015 7:05 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray May 7, 2015 10:38 AM Flag

    Will maintain distribution at current levels for the year...

    Which is another way of saying that 2015 distributions will be 21% higher than 2014 ($2.70 vs $2.23). If that's what's happening during the *down* cycle, IMO that tells you right there that this is a great business that you want to own a share of.

  • not_totally_gray not_totally_gray May 14, 2015 10:54 AM Flag

    EQM is already priced like a high-growth GP, so I suppose it makes sense that the GP would get priced like a hot biotech or internet company. It's funny to see so many GPs coming public the same week that Williams is buying theirs in. I will say that the EQ assets have to be really attractive as an acquisition candidate for one of the bigger MLPs, but at what price?

  • Reply to

    PER going to 5.90 for the next 4 months

    by gumpstumpnc May 15, 2015 6:21 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray May 19, 2015 2:42 PM Flag

    "Subordination still in affect for 4 more Q's resulting in payouts of .61,.56,.54 and .53 for a total of $2.24" The sub units will not support distributions that high -- at current prices, you're looking at maybe $0.30. All the subordination means is that those units won't get anything, and the regular units get all the cash flow. But with almost 40 million regular units, there's no way they're earning $20 million+ in cash flow when last quarter they only had, what, $13 million? As you note, though, the next distribution will be at least partially shielded by the last hedges.

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