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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited Message Board

not_totally_gray 28 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 10, 2014 12:51 PM Member since: May 14, 1999
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  • not_totally_gray by not_totally_gray Jan 20, 2014 10:48 AM Flag

    Surprised this bombed so badly -- I didn't spend a lot of time researching, but it seemed like it is very solidly profitable and has a nice collection of assets. Looks like net income of $400 million over last 9 months = over $500 million annualized vs $4.5 billion mkt cap. Any idea what I'm missing?

  • not_totally_gray by not_totally_gray Jan 21, 2014 4:49 PM Flag

    Anyone else notice Dan Ivascyn named Fixed Income Manager of the Year by Morningstar ?

  • Reply to

    what next?

    by tsjdiet Jan 21, 2014 10:55 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jan 23, 2014 5:19 PM Flag

    a nice dividend increase would be just the ticket to give the recent recovery some legs. For past several years this has been the qtr when it's been raised... last couple years we've have 5 cents/qtr increase, that would be a 6.4% increase... 6 or 7 cents instead would send a nice message.

  • not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jan 27, 2014 10:05 AM Flag

    I just took quick look at PTY... compared to PDI, I see an extra 1% yield in exchange for about 25% of NAV premium difference (+21% premium vs -4% discount). Looks like the risk/reward is heavily skewed in favor of PDI, but that's admittedly based on about 5 minutes of analysis. What are the factors in favor of PTY?

  • Reply to

    what next?

    by tsjdiet Jan 21, 2014 10:55 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Feb 12, 2014 7:43 AM Flag

    Well, there's our 6% increase.

  • Reply to

    my daddy always said

    by tsjdiet Feb 4, 2014 12:52 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Feb 25, 2014 12:56 PM Flag

    what on earth happened? Over a $4 decline since this AM's peak?

  • not_totally_gray by not_totally_gray Feb 25, 2014 4:35 PM Flag

    volume = 53 million?? looks like a 40 million block near the close, at that downward spike?

  • not_totally_gray by not_totally_gray Feb 25, 2014 4:38 PM Flag

    despite up day for KMx, looks like the warrants got trashed at the close, with volume of 53 million... looks like a 40-million unit block traded near the close? might be worth nibbling if those have been oversold relative to KMI.

  • Reply to

    load up time

    by albacornus Feb 24, 2014 12:15 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Feb 27, 2014 3:30 PM Flag

    In practical terms, not really... last week we already had double the yield of competing MLPs. If it can yield 6%, it can yield 7; if it can yield 7%, it can yield 8; if it can yield 8%, it can yield 9. If we ever get genuinely bad news instead of just these stories, no reason this can't sell down to 10% yield or worse. Not picking on KMR, just being realistic about any stock or MLP.

    I used to own QRE when it was priced in the 20s and people said the same thing all the way down. For the past year or so it's been yielding almost 12%. It was still yielding 10% when I sold it, and I couldn't be happier.

    That said, I do think this yield is pretty safe -- almost 8% yield with 5% annual dist growth, and with Kinder managing the show.

  • Reply to

    load up time

    by albacornus Feb 24, 2014 12:15 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Feb 27, 2014 3:34 PM Flag

    almost all of his holdings are KMI. He owns a small amount of KMP and KMP (well, small for him).
    I am very long in KMR and worried.
    KMR is still the safest of the bunch. At the end of the day, KMI is just a levered play on KMP/KMR -- it should go up faster when things are well, and down faster if things don't.

  • Reply to

    You have to be kidding .0025

    by douganddi Feb 26, 2014 5:25 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Feb 27, 2014 11:30 PM Flag

    You guys must not own Realty Income (O) --
    "Realty Income Corporation (Realty Income), The Monthly Dividend Company®,
    (NYSE:O), today announced its board of directors has declared an increase in the company’s common stock monthly cash dividend
    to $0.1821667 per share from $0.1818542 per share. The dividend is payable on January 15, 2014 to shareholders of record as of
    January 2, 2014. This is the 74th
    dividend increase since Realty Income went public in 1994. The new monthly dividend amount
    represents an annualized dividend amount of approximately $2.186 per share as compared to the previous annualized dividend
    amount of approximately $2.182 per share. "

  • Reply to

    The call

    by coochy.cooty Feb 27, 2014 10:41 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Feb 27, 2014 11:32 PM Flag

    er, well, aside from today
    We're basically back where we were last Friday. In hindsight, the buyers who ran it up in anticipation of earnings, were disappointed and sold. Ho hum...

  • Reply to

    load up time

    by albacornus Feb 24, 2014 12:15 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Mar 2, 2014 12:09 PM Flag

    It's not a big deal, IMO -- given his position, I would expect him to have his money concentrated at the GP level, with some money in each of the different stocks. I doubt he intends to send signals that any KMx entity is "better" than the other as they pertain to retail investors, so much as just maintaining a public show of support for each of them.

  • Reply to

    Game changer - MIF gone

    by m20m75ph Mar 3, 2014 7:52 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Mar 3, 2014 10:18 AM Flag

    "looks like we take about a 20% dilution in exchange for the MIF"
    why is this a "great deal" for unit holders? All they need to do is cover the current min dist by 1.0 and you hand over 20% of your investment in the form of diluted shares?

  • Reply to

    Game changer - MIF gone

    by m20m75ph Mar 3, 2014 7:52 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Mar 3, 2014 11:40 AM Flag

    " It guarantees our distributions are covered before they get anything. "
    And for that, they get 17% of the units? I agree that removing drag on the the cash available for DCF improves coverage of the $1.95, but it seems to more or less permanently eliminate the possibility of distribution growth since -- and please correct me if I am not understanding this correctly -- the issuance of new "incentive" units isn't a one-time deal, but will be ongoing whenever the "targets" are achieved? So most of the benefit of accretive acquisitions will be drained off by new incentive units?

  • Reply to

    Upgrade?

    by mikesims52 Mar 4, 2014 8:08 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Mar 4, 2014 1:01 PM Flag

    every acquisition announcement is basically in invitation to short-sellers to sell short on the announcement, then cover a couple months later when they issue new shares at a discount, so I also like the ATM. in addition to the ATM I'd love to see a DRIP -- folks could choose to get new units (maybe at 5% discount to mkt price) and QRE gets another steady capital inflow. But I don't know if MLP is able to do this.

  • Reply to

    Upgrade?

    by mikesims52 Mar 4, 2014 8:08 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Mar 4, 2014 8:23 PM Flag

    Fidelity just buys shares on the open market though, they're not issued by the company--and you certainly don't get a discount.

  • Reply to

    NG prices

    by hungry4income Mar 2, 2014 1:17 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Mar 5, 2014 12:05 PM Flag

    you should have asked that when gas was $2 and change.

  • Reply to

    this should be 25.00 a share

    by keoo2 Mar 6, 2014 10:22 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Mar 6, 2014 2:50 PM Flag

    " A rough calc of coverage right now, fully dilutive is in the .9 range"
    They were pretty clear in the conference call -- and repeated several times -- that the coverage ratio was 1.0 even fully diluted for the upcoming conversion, so not sure why you're saying 0.9. The reduced cash MIF adds about 0.06 to that ($7 million), so heading into 2014 they should be at 1.06. The new MIF units are a 4-6% annual headwind, but hopefully now new dropdowns and acquisitions will benefit common unitholders and not just mgmt. If unit price rallies to 10% yield or so with this GP buyout deal, up around $20, that will also help a great deal in new acquisitions being accretive to distribution ( compared to having to issue new units for $16).

  • Reply to

    this should be 25.00 a share

    by keoo2 Mar 6, 2014 10:22 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Mar 6, 2014 4:45 PM Flag

    "Cedric Burgher - Chief Financial Officer
    The thing I would add is that we gave you the fully diluted coverage ratio of 1.0 times today which fully diluted just assumes that the step-up that had already occurred. With the accretive transaction for the buyout that obviously adds to that going forward and it’s also accretive not just this year but to distributable cash flow for years to come at a significant level if you model, say you model $500 million a year in acquisitions.

    If you do the math you will see a significant amount of increase in our cash flow after distribution. And so we think this is -- really helps position as for that step-up and like I said we are at one time in the fourth quarter fully diluted. So we think we are well positioned to meet that step-up beginning -- at beginning of next year"

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