They are milking it, but you have to remember that it is a drug that has been on the market for 5+ years. It's great for them because they get 100% of the rights (less the 20% they owe to Deerfield and the other party).
For us, it would end up being $8M a year, if Vanda gets to the peak sales that Novartis achieved. That would be great, but it wouldn't make sense to invest in Titan for just that. We spun it off to stay alive and advance Probuphine. Maybe Probuphine ends up being a bust, but I can promise you we wouldn't still be here if we didn't do that deal with Deerfield.
Lets keep things in perspective. Vanda's revenue is 10 times higher than Titan would get.
Outside of the increased royalty %, what are the other differences that cancel that out?
I'm not sure those % were disclosed, though I think the milestone payments were increased, but not the actual royalty %'s. I don't think the milestone events were released.
You may want to tamper those expectations.
We went to 2.50 last time, but we also were expecting $50M on approval, not $15M. We also had 21M less shares outstanding.
Parkinson's is a long time off. I don't see it adding much value until they can release some positive Phase II or III results, which are years away.
Staylon, Titan can manage to operate on the $15M they get on approval. From there, Probuphine sales will dictate whether or not we survive as a company. A buyout is also likely because Braeburn is heavily invested at this point.
No chance we get 20% of the market in year 1... I don't think they could train enough docs for that to occur.
I think overtime we can see 300-500M in peak sales (maybe more depending on market growth), which would be a success for Titan and Probuphine.
The ROW isn't worth much, imo. The market is heavily concentrated in the US.
Suboxone did $1.1B in sales in 2014 with a 58% market share, so the market is quite large. If they get 20% of the current market, they would at $380M. The good thing for us is that the overall demand for Suboxone is still very good with the main restriction on market growth being the limits doctors have on prescribing to patients. That is something I believe could be lifted for Probuphine because the implant addresses the concern that caused the limit to be put in place.
Like I said, there are a lot of unknowns, but I can easily see a scenario where we do quite well. Of course, we may not. That is the wildcard in biotechs. Even if we do well, it's going to take a couple of years to get there. You can only certify so many people to do the procedure at a time.
Hey Angie, I hope you're doing well! Unfortunately, I haven't followed things as closely this time around but I will take a shot at your questions.
1. I doubt they will have an AdCom. I just don't see the point of it given the outcome of the last one. Some doctors are all for it (I believe we had 6 solid yes votes last time), some are going to be on the fence, and others are going to be against it based on the "procedure" that needs to be done. You're going to get the same opinions this time, but with better results. No need to go through that again, imo.
2/3. 0% chance of an unannounced approval. The CRL we got last time was overly harsh, so it isn't as if this is a simple fix. I think they will file the NDA sometimes between Q3 of Q4, with approval coming (if it occurs) between Q1-Q2 of 2016.
4. This is the big question. Based on the AdCom, I think you'll see 30% of the market write this off until we see some positive word of mouth (if that occurs). That leaves 70% who will consider it. Of those 70%, lets assume 50% will give it a go. That would give us the potential of 35% of the market. Is that going to be the entire market or the smaller subset? The data supports the entire market, but I think it will have to be used off label.... Ultimately, there are too many unknowns right now to know how things will play out, but I think we could see peak sales of over $500M if things go right.
One thing to worry about is the FDA and their aversion to the "procedure" (remember the 30 minute presentation of the issues with the birth control treatment that was pulled?... they did that to sway opinions towards the negative). I don't see this as a "slam dunk" and neither should anyone else here considering the history.
Who knows for sure? I'm playing with free money and am happy with how things are going. I think the pps will run towards approval, but I'm not sure where it ends up.
Haha, I agree with this, but I'm not sure I would call Jodie's episodes "thoughtful material".
Taking in the opposing view is a great idea, but that view has to be genuine. I'm not sure Jodie is...
I'm not going to discuss this with you further as you have no idea what you are talking about. The consultants did get paid 750K as that was confirmed with the company. They got paid from the money we received from Apple Tree, so I think you could easily make the argument that they were part of that deal.
The FACT that you were incredibly wrong on the names never being released kind of kills your arguments here.
I don't "believe" in this stock. I have free shares that I'm riding to the very end. They are in at around 70 cents, so I believe I have a very good chance of at least doubling my money in the end (end= approval).
The rest of your post is more nonsense that is an attempt at deflecting. It makes no sense in the context of anything I said prior to the post.
Nvm, I now remember there being 2. I am positive we were told who they are. One was hired to determine a value with the other being paid to find potential partners.
I'm pretty sure they told us who the consultant was. I don't remember being 2, but that is possible.
Also, I think $750K is a material amount, which is the amount we paid the consultant.
1. What's the point of saying this? I see it all the time in threads like this, but I'm obviously not going to come to IL to look at your ST account. Does this somehow shift the blame onto me? Are people supposed to see this and say "oh look how transparent bailey is, he/she must be genuine"?
2. I don't, and I don't think it works on most people, but it may stop someone from buying, which has the same effect on the PPS. To say this isn't attempted all day everyday would be a big time lie though. It happens all the time. I can't tell you if it works or not, but those types of posts do help create a negative atmosphere.
3. This company had a MAJOR setback when they had almost no funds. They did everything right and they still got the shaft. How is that their fault? Are they the best run company in the world? No, but they have gotten a drug to the decision part of the approval process and it was one that many people, including a group of experts, thought should be approved. Given their size, it is amazing they are still around. If you invested in a small time bio with one drug, you are putting your IRA at risk. That is all there is to it. That is completely separate from Titan's management and how they have performed given the circumstances.
And yeah, it could go to $3, but that isn't likely. I agree with that. The rest of your original post was ridiculous. They are pretty good at letting us know when dilution is coming. They have said they are funded for awhile, so there is no historical context to say they will dilute. I'm not sure why this RS stuff is coming from, but it is pretty standard to leave that option open. However, you normally vote on that and I don't remember getting a chance to make take that vote.
Your original post featured a who's who of basher tactics. Maybe your this genuine person, but most of the time (99%) I have found out that not to be the case with posts like this.
The classic I'm long, but.... post.
You don't need to be short for you to wish the pps goes down some before they release what should be positive earnings.
This post screams of someone who knows the pps should appreciate as the announcement gets closer and wants in at a lower price. I don't really think that works, but there are people are every MB who try it anyways.