To further my example of CLDX, 1.7b market cap and they have about 80% tute ownership, NWBO is under 6% with Tutes (NWBO would be a lot higher but every time they do a cash raise, the private placement sells the stock and keeps the warrants) and market cap of 350 million. Both KITE and JUNO are over 2 billion market cap and both are proof of concept and haven't even started a phase 1 trial.
"Otherwise FDA might not agree and since it would have to be unblinded they would have to start over if the FDA did not accept the halt."
Personally I think this is an F upped answer that Power's gave and I would like to know 1 drug in a phase 3 trial that was stopped for efficacy (as well as being safe) where the FDA did not accept a halt and asked for another trial before approval.
While Steve who did the Seeking Alpha article that modeled the L trial and came to the conclusion that L is showing stellar efficacy, yet at the last DMC review (in which also Power's stated efficacy was to be done), not only did Power's enlarge the trial, but added almost double the events to trigger a stop. My guess is efficacy WAS done and was inconclusive which is why Power's did what she did.
Why would she do that? What pre-revenue company that has to beg for cash every 2 months (generally with warrants and deflated stock price) would want to prolong the trial as well as keep a life saving product from market? It makes zero sense to me unless the -L trial modeled on Seeking Alpha was way off base.
I don't currently have a lot of faith in -L for GBM based on what happened above, however, King's College, PEI and Germany lends some credibility to -L and if it does show efficacy, it's home run. If Direct has a durable effect, it's a Grand Slam.
What bothers me about this company and more importantly the stock price, is Dr's talk and wall street is full of crooks (and are very well connected), if L was doing what has been suggested and Direct is showing promise, why is the stock price .35 cents still (NWBO did a 16 for 1 reverse split prior to being uplisted to NASDAQ). (CLDX has a bit similar platform technology for example)
I'm invested based on what I have read (largely on what Larry Smith has wrote), Kings College, Germany and MD Anderson, but Power's as a CEO of an emerging Bio Tech company, I don't feel she is technical enough to accurately describe the technology.
Man, I hope you are right and I happen to agree with Direct, but it's still a long way to go before commercialization, a lot of cash and lots of shares to be issued still. Hopefully without warrants and hopefully we continue to hear how well it's doing.
What bothers me currently about the share price and the -L trial is Powers increased "events" from 110 to 248 then lowered it to 4 months survival. I hate to side with AF on -L, but I think the last DMC review was inconclusive, I seriously doubt the trial will conclude in 2015 and will be continuously pushed out. Why would "events" need to be increased if L was a champion and showing efficacy? I also don't get the 10's of millions paid to Cognate or the 8 million shares recently "gifted" to them.
I'm in long for Direct and seriously hope I'm wrong about -L giving that is the shorter term to approval and being mid-phase 3. The article that Steve did on Seeking Alpha modeling the -L trial is very encouraging, the increase in "events" the company did cast doubt on that mode, at least for me.
While I would love for NWBO to hold some sort of "cure for cancer", I have NWBO stock for the potential money plain and simple as I think Direct (if the results are durable) is going to be a grand slam however, I can't say I completely trust Power's at the moment. Let's just hope we all don't wake up and get 70% haircut on our account balances one morning and instead have very nice appreciation in share price.
I wish someone would have asked about the 8 million shares "gifted" to Cognate per the last 10k. Over 40 million bucks for a "streamlined cost effective MFG process".
Here Cognate, have over 10% of the company. Thanks for all your work. L Powers.
"Linda indicated in her latest webcast that they were not looking to be purchased"
Of course she would say that, she is venture capitalist. Guess what happens when you say you want to sell something? The price goes down and you lose considerable leverage.
Like I said, I don't know if they will be bought out, or even at this stage as the share price does not reflect that. I'm just saying it would be a nice xmas present.
Well, I hate to speculate about things but the "board" issued quite a few shares to employees and Cognate per the last 10k.
I had a great position in TSRX, they issued shares similar to what NWBO has done and they were bought out at 15.50 (13.50 cash and 2 bucks on CVR's payable in the future).
I don't know if Power's is talking to anyone and or maybe a partner in the Europe, but with all the talk recently about big pharma, cancer and immunotherapy, NWBO seems to be much further along than most currently. Steve from Seeking Alpha modeled a fairly strong predictor of -L and the encouraging Direct results seems like it might be plausible.
It could just be shorts covering...
Here is a Con for you.
Mutistem has yet to clear a clinical trial.
CEO Gil is very well paid, claims how under valued ATHX is but has yet to invest ANY of this own money buying company stock. I guess the return is much greater elsewhere and he can just dump options if he needs some cash.
You must have missed the 8 million shares that were "gifted" to Cognate per the last 10k. Not sure of the brake down on how Cognate is owned, but I believe that NWBO owns the patents. Cognate is nothing with out NWBO and vise versa at least currently.
The MFG would be easy enough (and cheaper) to duplicate VS going through time and expense of the clinical trials on getting approval. I'd take the approval of the trials and the technology over the MFG. At least that is my 2 cents.
If I had to guess, (and considering Cognate is supposed to have a lockup period for a number of years) gifting shares/warrants to Cognate is a backdoor way to just pad Power's bank account IF NWBO gets bought out or if NWBO is ever considered a serious contender in bio cancer race.
I agree with you on that respect about a buyout or partner. The company bleeds cash for some unknown reason (claims how efficient and cheap the MFG process is however, they are running well over 100k per trial patient) then to "gift" 8 million shares to Cognate.
I try to remain positive, but for a company that runs on the brink of insolvency to buy a property for MFG (then put it in Cognate's name) instead of conserving cash and do a lease considering NOTHING is approved seems reckless in my eyes.
I just find it odd when there is a cash raise the stock drops considerably even though it's a private placement, even with presentations it drops. I don't think Powers wins over the crowd with "striking results". Not sure if she used "special sauce" today, but come on special sauce? Or the "generals of the immune system" like it's an army. Makes me wonder who she is marking this to. She is trying to get tute investments to support the stock using terms McDonalds uses... I wouldn't invest my clients money in that type of Bio company.
I'm long, bought in the 3's I sold out when it was over 10 last year and have traded in and out all year. I have bought some jan 2016 options. I figure by then NWBO will be a game changer or bust.
It sure sounds encouraging but the market doesn't care. We are down almost a buck since the MD Anderson poster.
NWBO needs positive clinical trial results. Let's hope 2015 is the year.
Hope? really? That is all heb stock holders have is hope. .30 cents and under for 2 years now. Sound like a GREAT Company! The best part is the CEO is paid 1/20th of the market cap every single year! They can't MFG a thing nor can they sell it even if they could MFG it! How about that fine Argentina approval huh? No revs yet from that and what 3 years now? This is nothing but a scam, plan and simple.
Go by the corp office and see if anyone is even there. Or how about the "state of the art MFG plant"? Run down old building with no one there. Stop by and check it out.
Meanwhile, Carter is living among the top 1% while shareholders "hope". Just wait until the reverse split THEN maybe HEB will be over a dollar only to slowly decline on back to .30 cents.
One Penn Center
1617 JFK Blvd., Suite 500
Philadelphia, PA 19103
Manufacturing Facility & Development Center
783 Jersey Avenue
New Brunswick, NJ 08901
HEB is nothing more than a cash register for the CEO. Want proof? Read the 10k's from prior years.
Carter pulled cash from HEB to pay for the following:
not to mention a million dollar a year salary.
He is even so generous to himself that the last ATM stock sell HEB did prior to receiving a CRL from the FDA, he took a "commission" of million bucks.
HEB is nothing more than a cash register for Carter and it's your cash!
Wise up people, he hasn't even met with the FDA for the last CRL and it's been almost 2 years!
Well, first, the stock is largely unloved as the company has a very checkered past. Second, L trial has been on-going for 10 years with no end in sight (they say end of 2015 which is still a year away, quite a while to sit on a shares that will just get diluted every cash raise). Direct has not completed a phase 1.. but gave a glimpse efficacy which is a good sign however, still 3 years out from FDA approval. They don't have enough cash to make it to ANY clinical results, maybe direct phase 1 and the company continues to be on the brink of insolvency.
Then you have message board pumpers saying they should be bought out at 15... Turtle who claims to have 75k shares (who here thinks he has $375K invested in NWBO much less $375k in cash to invest, I don't). He might have 75k shares in way out of the money options but not 75k in shares.
The company MAY have a hell of product on it's hands, but needs some validation (quite a bit of validation in MHO, message boards and Seeking Alpha articles are good reads and sure makes it sound like they have a grand slam, but the market isn't buying it, at least not yet. And they can't afford a hick-up given how hard it is for them to raise cash. They don't want 250 million shares outstanding and a share price of .30 cents again.
I doubt they will be bought out or even have an offer in quite some time. This isn't a pill that can be made for .20 cents and sold for 1000's. There is significant cost involved in the MFG so any buyout offer won't happen until it is proven.