It's just the pricing, but I have to assume that they are adding another million shares to the mix that they feel pretty confident about $19 a share. Not they will have a nice long runway of cash to get them where they need to go. Since they won't have to go back to the market, they can get full valuation for any successes. I'm definitely a buyer, but at below the $19, which I may not get. Sometimes people dump their shares after the completion of a secondary. Not sure why, since they are now better off. I just don't want to reach on this. My congratulations to PETX on this secondary offering.
...and they have to do additional safety studies. At least that's better than rejection, but they need good news now! This secondary is not going to be nice to the per share price. They need the cash to move forward, they don't have any choice.
That's why I was afraid of the limited trading volume that we had. Anyway, we have Phase II results coming before the end of the quarter. That's what most people are waiting for and why they are not trading a high volume of shares. It will be a whole new game at that point. I do expect that it will be a steady rise from here now that we go our 10+% correction all in one day.
Good luck getting it done now. It's either going to be at a very low price or even worse, not at all. They need the cash. They don't have much of a choice. If the biotech stocks keep getting pounded today, they end up doing the secondary at a really low price, which won't give them the runway they need to profitability and we'll be doing it again next year!
I looked over the prospectus again this morning. This company will definitely stay on my watch list, but the current valuation seems too high. My opinion will either be validated or blown away soon, when the we see what the actual secondary offering price goes for. I just don't see enough near term revenue opportunities. Merging the two recent acquisitions is usually sloppy and expensive for the first year. Also, having to sell a million shares for an existing shareholder, puts additional pressure on the pricing of the secondary. This is all fascinating to me. They should have pulled this off a month ago, when biotech was peaking. They need $33M of the cash to pay off the acquisition and then they have to manage the remaining money well. At least that will buy them some headway to create additional value. I'm waiting for the news.
and the stock is up today. They will likely get the shares at $18 or $17.50. If it's more I will be pleasantly surprised. I just can't believe the stock is up today.
Another huge volume day. Take a look at the history on this. The only other time they have come close to this level of share trades over two days is when they announced the secondary offering at $4 a share! From a technical point of view, I don't see how this keeps from getting higher. Phase 2 data coming up soon with an excellent product pipeline. The upside potential outweighs the downside risk by a wide margin at this price. The initial IPO price was $8 a share and that was just a year ago. We are still a ways away from that. That secondary offering killed this stock for a while, but that's over now and they have cash in the bank as a result of that offering. Cash is a big problem for biotech's and it's not an issue here.
With over 600,000 shares traded yesterday, today's upward move is not a surprise. Today I would pay attention again to the volume of shares traded. If we can do over 200,000 shares, it's a meaningful move. If not, it is susceptible to going back down. This could really take off from here. Again, watch the volume even more than the price. Good luck to all longs!
Sanofi, who just did a nice partnership today with Alnylam, is a good one. Glaxo, Roche, Dainippon Sumiturno Merck, and Astrazeneca. Big pharma is very interested in Asthma drugs.
This KB001 news with Sanofi is good news too. $250M potential for KBIO per the contract.
OK CRQTDOC, I'll start a conversation. I have to agree that it's strangely quiet on the board. I am patiently waiting for the top line Phase II data on KB003. If this shows positive signs, this stock could move up by multiples. KaloBios wants to partner the trial with big pharma, which shouldn't be too difficult, given the potential in the asthma space. There are plenty of potential partners looking to score in this market.
The only thing I have heard about results is "early 2014". I hope that means January or February.
It was well deserved. That being said, there are some major opportunities for this to go up now in a big way. Any news of a new contract or anything on the lawsuit front could quickly double the stock at this price. I expect to see the speculators start to pile in today. I don't know what the volume would be, but if it's not over the average daily volume, then I could be wrong.
It is important to remember that the $10M payout was $8.6M from insurance and $1.4M in stock. No cash difference. There is not really a big difference in where AMSC stands now vs. when they had their quarterly conference call. So, I am in at $1.57. Outside of knowing that I could have waited a little longer, I'm happy with it as a speculative buy.
The timing of the Quarterly conference call on November 7th is perfect, as they can address the ongoing's of what happened with Judge Illston on November 6th. Although we won't get anything definitively, we should see clearly that the tables have turned and there is a good chance for Sequenom's victory. If they are victorious on the legal front, this stock will be in the twenties, two years from now.
Thanks for the post. I liked the fact that you listed the reasons for optimism along with the concerns. Not cheerleading or bashing. There was a nice SeekingAlpha article this weekend justifying at the very least a short term bump should be occurring. We got slammed for being dropped from the biotech index, so it took a bad step down that had nothing to do with performance. Let's hope this good news circulates well, and we start really heading up from here. It has been a rough ride. I am really hoping for optimism on the November 6th hearing, but not sure we'll get much in either direction from it.
I think it goes down to the $2.75 for the close. It might hit $2.50 during the day. I do believe that it could go back to $3 before the next earnings announcement. So, how high does it go if they get the injunction, $4?
The table will be reset after the hearings in Northern California. Let's see what happens. I am feeling positive about the direction that will be set. I think it could lead to a significant improvement in the stock price.