Higher chance of closing below 645. Market flattening, trading volume falling off. I pick 641.50
Seems like a support level around 640. But the buyers could run out of steam by the end of the day and it could go through that level. If it does, it could drop quite a bit.
The risk now is that we have a growth stock that is slowing a bit as reported, a company that requires and is sensitive to particular raw materials that are subject to some potential supply issues (failure to meet standards by suppliers, diseases creating shortages, weather, delivery issues, etc.), no real news until next earnings and an overall market that seems a bit toppy to me. Any big downward movement in the market will drag CMG down and any big upward movement will most likely ignore CMG.
From my view, all these contribute to being shy of CMG for a while.
Disclosure: I sold out of the money calls on the stock during this earnings report. Premium was too good to pass up.
Looks like others in the market have doubts too. Be careful of momentum stocks, they are a dangerous thing. I too have been poisoned by drinking the kool aid on a momentum stock.
Definition of 'Stop-Loss Order'
An order placed with a broker to sell a security when it reaches a certain price. A stop-loss order is designed to limit an investor’s loss on a position in a security. Although most investors associate a stop-loss order only with a long position, it can also be used for a short position, in which case the security would be bought if it trades above a defined price. A stop-loss order takes the emotion out of trading decisions and can be especially handy when one is on vacation or cannot watch his/her position. However, execution is not guaranteed, particularly in situations where trading in the stock is halted or gaps down (or up) in price. Also known as a “stop order” or “stop-market order.”
Then, by all means buy now.
1) If the price increase just covers their increase in costs, then the percent of profit on each item actually goes down. So you start to argue for market share not profits like Amazon does. Their stock is not exactly a model to aspire for this year.
2) Burritos are already $7.70 here. A 5% price increase puts it over $8. You really think that can go on and on without having some impact? So a family of five eats for $50 with drinks and tax? I have some doubts about how that plays out in the market. As you up the prices, other eating establishments become viable alternatives. So how about a $10 burrito?
3) The issue with saturated stores is that there is no additional growth potential for that store. Clearly, there is an upper limit on how many customers one can serve in a day. So do keep in mind that the price of the stock is not based on today's revenue, but rather the future revenue stream. If that flattens out for existing stores there will be problems.
4) Well, I hope they continue with their magic for you. But having grown up in a farm area, their ability to control food costs seems a bit too glib to me.
5) Burritos could be the pet rock of the fast food industry. Who knows?
6) But if burritos have some particular magic then more people will enter the market. I already to go to Boloco and Moe's out near me. They are good enough for me - honestly it is a pleasure to not wait in line for 40 minutes.
7) Supply and demand. Just takes some additional shares to be dumped to erode price. At the end of certain quarters funds tend to clean up their portfolio, so we shall see.
I see this as a momentum stock because it is the definition of a momentum stock as your reply proves. "The basic idea is that once a trend is established, it is more likely to continue in that direction than to move against the trend."
One time, there was a company called McDonalds that had the lion's share of the market in fast food market
I too believe we will see it drop below $500 in the near future. Investors will now be looking for problems with the stock and small news will be amplified on the downside.
I have this theory where when you see an analyst start to predict a radical new high price for the stock then that will start a downward slide. Picking $742 as a price target just makes me think that some analysts pull numbers from very dark anatomical places..
So one has to believe the following:
1) One price increase is sufficient to cover cost increases for the near future.
2) The anticipated price increase has no impact on demand.
3) That they can continue to pump more people through each store (the one I go to is already maxed out with waiting times so long that people walk away) and find prime locations for the near future.
4) Those additional costs that are increasing will be a one time event and not continue to ramp up.
5) That the demand for burritos will not decrease.
6) Competition will not be an issue.
7) Stock holders will not be tempted to take their profits while the market is cycling.
Then, by all means, accumulate. I have real doubts and have been selling naked calls that will expire worthless tomorrow.
Momentum stocks have their own logic, but I believe that such stocks will tend to converge to the mean of similar stocks in their field.
Dangerous move. There could be a dead cat bounce, so you could catch some quick profit. But for long term, my guess some analysts will readjust their target prices in the upcoming month and it will not be up.
The utter lack of guidance should scare people. Basically ISRG is a company with sales in turmoil. They know their sales pipeline and the model for closing deals. What they are now saying by not giving guidance is that their model of closing sales (time from initial contact to close) is now not valid and cannot be used for guidance. In addition, deals in the pipe may be getting delayed, downward price pressure may be increasing and new leads may be shakier.
Don't forget, slower sales in the U.S. offers overseas buyers the opportunity to hold out for lower prices as they realize the company is under pressure to close deals.
Lastly, calls will potentially face devaluation (depending upon the strike) as volatility now drops post results.
So watch out - should be interesting times.
Some truth to that. Coming from a medical family, there is always the pull of the new surgical toy to try and also the pressure to be cutting edge (sorry for the pun) to differentiate the surgeon. The tide is turning on that for now.
I just do not see a return to greater growth until after next year. When the mass of people get dumped from insurance provided by the employer, the turmoil in the market is going to pressure conservative organizations (insurance and hospitals) to contain expenditures until the Obamacare mess is sorted out.
Uncertainty with respect to ACA created side effects may have an impact on market expectations. Growth curve is shallower, so while still a growth stock perhaps not the high flyer it once was.
I suggest you 1) review the SEC position on this type of activity and 2) ponder the legal documents one signs upon being a director. Just sayin . . .
Does anyone here look in depth at the numbers presented in this abstract? It is from a another presentation at ASCO and directly comes from the GALAXY-1 trial. Would be interested in what you think it may disclose of the GALAXY-1 results.
Hmm, 103 contracts traded today. Better confirm with your broker that the transaction went through. Unless you only trade on fantasy investment forums (while at your fantasy beach house?)