price action not good today. there was one massive block sold that a dealer purchased from someone at the $69 handle. a bunch of retail buys in $79 range. a few other trades in low $70's. it would be great to get some input form some of the longs on this board as they are very astute with respect to this company. this bond price action is quite frankly a little horrifying.
for the longest time they were trading well above par in the $103+ range.
then recently when interest rates shook out and yields went up, the bonds were trading down to at or under par. more recently, the bonds dipped to $94 and then slipped a little. but the last week, literally fell off a cliff to lower $80's in order to faciliate someone selling big size.
looks like this seller is still around showing $1.3M face of inventory. he had nearly $3M face last week. the good news is that someone was buying all of these bonds at around 80 cents on the dollar give or take.
right now, if you want to sell these bonds, you will get mid/low $70's where if you want to buy them, you will pay lower $80's.
problem with these bonds is they are very illiquid and do not trade much, so when someone has this kind of size to unload, it is easy to smash down the bid.
but for anyone bullish on this company, these bonds must be looked at given current annual yield of 23%
has anyone done any workup on these bonds? they are secured and senior so would hold the most significant claim. would appreciate any due diligence or research. thanks.
also any true longs or folks who are long common equity, what do you think now about prospects knowing that the bonds are trading at 80 cents on the dollar vs. par or better not that long ago. hopefully this is just an imbalance of supply and when the remainder of this inventory is absorbed, prices will go back up.
given the reserves they have and the fact that these bonds are senior/secured the prospects are still very appealing on the debt side regardless.
right. those were all the orders in AH yesterday. if you go the nasdaq site, there is a section specifically for extended hours trading and it will contain all the orders and their fill prices.
i saw that. could not believe the price move. well here were the actual fills in after hours yesterday. look at that jump in 24 minutes from $1.05 to $1.91. someone must have bought with a market order on that fill.
19:27 $ 1.64 300
17:12 $ 1.70 1
16:48 $ 1.91 High 2,000
16:24 $ 1.051 Low 122,200
so lets review the current state of affairs.
on the plus side, it appears that Cooke still has over 6M shares - is this correct?
as of 9/30/2013, the Macquarie Group is sitting on nearly 10% of the float.
as of 9/30/2013, blackrock is sitting on 15% of the float.
additionally they recently announced a refi of $27M on the 2016 bonds down to a 10% interest rate. i am wondering why no one commented on this? it seems this would be a positive development, no? i realized back in 2012 that added $27M something to the 2016 bonds, so this is wiping that out.
speaking of -- has anyone here thought of buying or did buy the 2016 bonds? they are senior secured and would have a much higher classification that than the common stock. yielding right now in the 12% annualized range.
regarding their proven reservers and assets; what say all of you in putting this in perspective vs. their debt? how much equity is left and what would say is the NAV on common stock if you could configure one?
this appears to be merely a case of, they are not executing on the assets they have, in terms of generating a certain threshold of cash. this cash flow is essential to servicing their debt and paying for day-to-day operational expenses, etc. can anyone add color this picture as to how it stands now?
it does not seem like the debt is that crazy yet -- they are somewhere around $127M now on the 2016 float and then $27M on the 2015 1st lien recently refinanced.
there are some very smart posters on this board but the posting frequency is kind of dated. would appreciate a discussion or any comments/inputs from long time longs. thank you.
thanks for your post and clarification. i just found that other thread from burninshorts on the C shares as well. the preferreds price action reminds me a little bit of MHR awhile back. looks like 2-3 back to back down days. have to gauge volume and start picking spots. i was really surprised to see the D shares dipped under $20 the other day.
greetings. i have dropped off the MILL planet for quite sometime now. i am catching up to some of the more recent events with respect to the independent board, productions #'s etc.
i am specifically wondering what your opinion is on the upcoming financial obligation they have to fulfill. is this something that is going to and can be paid off in full vs. a huge interest rate hike? i don't want to go with the logistics outlined in that SA hit piece. is this loan obligation from Apollo?
i would normally take the time to do my DD but the price action in the preferred shares is getting quite compelling. that is where my interest lies actually. so with that said; how is their current cash flow prospects in terms of servicing the interest on these preferred shares. again i don't want to go with the negative picture painted by the hit piece on this.
thanks in advance for your time.