lightdoesnotage - thanks for your post. i am still doing research. i guess what i am having a hard time extrapolating into numbers or assumption is free cash flow of TC vs. copper/gold prices. if free cash flow improves, gold and/or copper prices jump than any bond or equity side is all slam dunk. if free cash flow hinders or continued unforseen circumstances operationally ,etc. coupled with copper/gold prices tank the story line feels different but maybe its just my perspective because i have been out of the loop on this company for nearly 2 years.
foggiecat - no not at all. no assumption made. i am looking at from risk/reward perspective. i realize there is way much more upside on equity side. but as an income investor and debt trader the 2017 bonds are most appealing given their priority secured status. just because i am stating the RR does not mean anything or that i am assuming TC defaults. its just part of the DD process.
has anyone done any recent DD on the recovery rating prospects for the 2017 9.75% float? i am really surprised to see it trading at a 5% discount to par. it has been rated historically an RR of 1.
but generally 99% of the time, those analysis reports from S&P, moody's, etc. are hindsight at best especially in this kind of environment. i have lost thousands of dollars in the past by going with say moody's analysis of a particular corp bond.
it was my impression that the other two TC bond floats are basically just a step up from the equity side in the case of ultimate recovery in a binary event type scenario. they historically had a RR of 6 which means 0 to 20 cents on the dollar.
is anyone considering the debt here or is this board mainly equity folks? thanks.
taz this has been the most bizarre proceedings i have ever witnessed. it all started from that botched shareholder vote and the record date being messed up which caused BB to lose the R/S initiative.
from there its just been one thing after the next -- as you allude to with common sense -- it just seems illogical all of these dozens of events during this timeline could have landed the way it did. never seen a case take years like this one and with all the read between the potential lines scenarios.
it seems like finally we will have certainty by end of this year in terms of how these bonds ultimately play out. because you can only claim a realized capital loss in the year it occurred. these bonds, at least what we held in our accounts have been deemed worthless by our b/d's so either way regardless of whether we see a distribution or not, we have to use this transaction for 2015 tax year filings. hope something good still comes of this horrific mess.
right mustang -- so if this does not get sorted in 4 months, and we want to utilize the realized loss from this transaction, we have to use it this tax year 2015.
have you seen and/or did you receive the BNY Mellon Noteholder Final notice on the bonds? it specifically states that the trustee will proceed to terminate this notes issue on its record as of the date of that letter back in May. so it looks like said event has occured.
iam - i am really behind the information curve here. but i finally located and tracked down the BNY Mellon Final notice to noteholders correspondence regarding the 2012 BB bonds.
the note has a background/events timeline but than states that noteholders will not be receiving any further payment on their Notes and the Trustee will not be issuing any further notices. the Trustee will proceed to terminate this Note issue on its records.
so my question to susan - have you read above verbiage and what do you think? if this does not get straightened out by end of year -- this BB bond i believe could show up on our 1099's as a sell type transaction @ $0. any thoughts on this?
iam - why was this note such a secret and impossible to find. i believe next to no one received this final noteholders notice. thanks everyone for your input.
i never realized how tiny the float is on the C shares - only 425K shares. unreal. no wonder they were able to drive it all the way down from $18 to $7's on under 6 figure daily volume. and now wonder why the spreads are always wide on this and its tough to get filled in size below ask.
i completely missed this one. for anyone following this in real time when the C shares were trading between $7.50 - $9.00 how were the spreads and were there allot of shares available? it looks like one day volume was around 99K on this fall but i can not tell how many shares really traded at $7.50 - $8.00 since it traded at $12.50 that day as well.
i have been talking to other traders, etc. and can confirm from multiple individuals spanning every retail broker dealer you can think of; have all had their blockbuster bonds removed from the account. if you check your activity for the account, it shows up as a worthless transaction or $0.00.
i just spoke with someone else who told me a couple months ago he received a direct communication from his particular clearing agent that gave written communication/heads up that this was in the queue to take place via the chapter 7 case/trustee. apparently the date was older so it was a little confusing to ascertain the when and what.
so at this point -- anyone holdings these unsecured 2012 bonds in your account should no longer see them. it looks like this saga has unfortunately concluded and allot of folks both equity and debt stake holders, myself included, lost allot of money.
problem is VNR shares are impossible to borrow and even if you could you would pay huge carrying costs and also be on the hook to pay out the divi.
the details of this merger could have been more clearly stated not too mention some of the old school lingo. can this merger simply be arb'd by shorting .4378 shares of AVGO for every long 1 share of BRCM?
Initially I was hoping the $54ish price was actual guaranteed amount. Some traders were selling a ton of $55 strikes way far out on the calendar. They would pocket a ton of premium on this.
so can you confirm bottom - this still can be arb'd under the accumption deal goes through; short .4378 AVGO shares for every net long 1 share of BRCM? i am coming up with well over $8 per share right now to be had?