The traders are trading, but institutional hands have grown firm. 2015 will be a year of news, and shares will be harder to come by, as previous excellent data is likely to be further validated and EXTENDED.
Buy now and hold. If all goes well, NVAX will be a $4 billion company by year’s end. The low hum of chatter about a buyout will grow to a din.
The real money maker for Novavax, in whatever form it takes (stand alone company, acquisition, stand alone with an equity stake or partnership for commercialization taken by big pharma) will be RSV and the RSV/seasonal influenza combo for the elderly and pregnant mother population. Even better, the company is agile at delivering the goods on pandemics of many hues. The pandemic prowess of Novavax means that there is an ever present possibility of a sudden pop in the share price, so traders and shorts alike must always be on their toes. Longs need only enjoy, as patients get the care they need.
If big pharma was wise and nimble, Novavax would be acquired today. But I have a feeling that they are cautiously waiting for more RSV data (and looking with some degree of envy at what Novavax is demonstrating with its Ebola vaccine).
I wouldn't mind a buyout this year, but I think that one in 2016 will be worth five to ten more dollars per share.
A couple of years ago, I predicted a buyout at $17.00. I believe that 2016 will see news of such an event, but Novavax’s speedy demonstration of efficacy with the Ebola vaccine further validates the platform and will potentially elevate the buyout price. Based upon both intuition and rough calculation, I can see $22 in 2016.
Hardcore longs will naturally say I’m lowballing the figure, as they dream aloud of buyout prices in the $30-$40 range. Those who resist the acquisition of Novavax are even more bullish, with a target price of $100/share in 2022 or so.
Why squabble over the uplift? Whatever your flavor of (fact-based) fantasy, we are in ascent mode. Further validation in clinical trials this year will confirm what many of us have long believed: Novavax is the new face of vaccines.
For patients who would otherwise battle RSV, Ebola, MERS, variousseasonal and pandemic influenzas, rabies, or a slew of other conditions—and for shareholders with stock in hand—the news is welcome.
Stan is a gentleman of the old school, and he behaved as such. By saying that “to their credit” big pharma came forward with vaccines before Novavax, he gave them their proper due. However, as you and everyone else here have suggested, Stan moved on to suggest the superiority of Novavax’s current work. Stan is a man of class, and he doesn’t need to wield a cudgel to make his point. All it takes is some gentlemanly deference and then the promising facts.