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Pacific Ethanol, Inc. (PEIX) Message Board

nutstoobolts 71 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 18, 2014 9:17 AM Member since: Jun 27, 2008
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  • nutstoobolts nutstoobolts Apr 18, 2014 9:17 AM Flag

    dead wrong, chesty...for instance, i bought BIIB at 280 - after it dropped from 350...that's very close to a 20% drop.

    UNIS dropped from 5.10 or so to 3.40...a 30% drop...that's a 50% bigger move, by % - 30% as compared to 20%...it's still in the red by about 17 cents per qtr, and will probably remain so for at least 2 more qtrs...

    CELG dropped from 170 to 135 - a 20% drop, also...

    AMGN barely dropped at all - but then, it's got a ttm PE below 20, and that's partly why...

    CBMX dropped from 3.50 to 2.40 - a 33% drop...it's still losing $$ or barely breaking even on testing revenues...

    the larger, most successful biopharmas dropped by bigger $ amts, but by much smaller percentages...

    ANYONE who thinks UNIS' drop was due to biopharmas dropping in general, is, imo, fooling themselves...

    and the biopharmas dropped to put $$ into new IPO's...

    NFLX, YELP, Z, AMZN, TSLA FB, etc. dropped because people - many hedge funds - wanted to take profits from high PE stocks and put those $$ into new IPO's, where they thought the growth prospects were much stronger, and not so mature...

    the odd part, to me, is that apparently some of those funds didn't have enough "dry powder" available to buy as many shares as they could either get, or wanted, at the IPO time. that is never a problem for me, fortunately...

    when GOOG split to $500+ (2 for 1) recently, and 'tanked' to 524 2 days ago, on pretty good earnings, i LOADED UP, and i already owned shares from before!!

    i'm fortunate, in that i'm able to put $1,000's of $$ into any stock at a moment's notice, if i want to...

    AMZN, btw, is the worst stock in the world to own, based entirely on atrocious fundamentals...which is the reason i won't own it...

    so, if you think UNIS dropped so much because it got 'lumped together' with the biopharma sector, and people took profits, i think you are grossly misleading yourself. WHAT PROFITS?

    selling a MNKD from 2.00 to a $7 jump made sense, but UNIS from a $3 to a $5??

    LOL!!!

    n

    Sentiment: Hold

  • nutstoobolts nutstoobolts Apr 18, 2014 8:35 AM Flag

    toobig, the sp dropped AFTER i sold out, not before...

    i sold out at 5:06 and 4.80...

    ntb

    Sentiment: Hold

  • nutstoobolts nutstoobolts Apr 18, 2014 8:34 AM Flag

    chesty, the "what ifs" i mentioned are not particularly far-fetched...in fact, a few of them are likely to occur...so much for your comparison...

    ntb

    Sentiment: Hold

  • nutstoobolts nutstoobolts Apr 18, 2014 8:32 AM Flag

    bttx, your subtle sarcasm put aside, what you suggest is actually a pretty darn good idea!!

    LOL!!!!

    ntb

    Sentiment: Hold

  • i'll give you people credit for one thing...alot of hope, and apparently, the willingness to let it play out for a hoped-for major return on ROI...

    here's the problem...UNIS is full of "WHAT IF's" - like so many pre-filled syringes to connect all those dots to the "promised land" of big returns...

    WHAT IF AS is not being straight with you on pending new contracts...
    WHAT IF the existing contracts don't translate into expected payments on expected schedule...
    WHAT IF some of the pending contracts are lost to other suppliers instead...
    WHAT IF the profit margins are lower - and the operating costs are higher - on some of the anticipated production lines
    WHAT IF the shorts' skepticism is proven to be partially right...
    WHAT IF the $60 MIL line of credit gets burned thru significantly faster than anticipated...
    WHAT IF some of the hoped-for developments - like insulin pump pre-fills - get lost to new, innovative delivery systems like Al Mann's (Mannkind - MNKD) - inhaled insulin delivery system that is now FDA advisory board, though not yet FDA approved...

    ALOT of these 'WHAT IFs' on the "positive side" of the proverbial ledger have to come through for many of these ROI 'dot' trails to be all connected to "fruition"...and many of you, in your own commentaries, reflect some doubts, frustration, and uncertainty as to when this will happen, let alone the possibility of IF it will actually happen...

    and that has been precisely my point, and why i am currently out...i'd like more of a "road map" that has more consistency, more accurate projections, and heightened believability...

    and right now, i just don't think you - or UNIS - has that...yet...

    ntb

    Sentiment: Hold

  • nutstoobolts nutstoobolts Apr 17, 2014 3:56 PM Flag

    mcchesty - ALL in on UNIS? yes, i'd call that a bit UNorthodox. i, too, am a risk taker, and very capable of looking at upside pot'l vs downside risk ratios...

    and i will tell you that there are at least 10 other stocks that i personally would be "all in" on before UNIS - which probably would not rank in top 20 picks that way for me...

    GOOG, TSLA, MONIF, SINA, BIIB, CELG, YELP, PAY, FB, MNKD, SPLK, DATA would ALL come first fir me, if it were just ONE, and probably either GOOG or TSLA would be 1st...

    and i could give you lucid, logical, well-reasoned 'arguments', aka logical treatises, for both...

    BUT, i own significant #'s of shares of them ALL (listed above), so it's no issue for me...

    i'm even tempted to go back into UNIS right now, but can't find a compelling reason to 'pull the trigger' right now...not even at this 'depressed pps'...too many issues, among them, distrust and lack-of-faith in the candor of AS...

    for the record, i also own a significant # of real estate investment properties, so i have significant monthly rental incomes, as well as numerous annuities...

    and i do NOT take dividends in cash from stocks that generate them - i always re-invest them (DRIPs), as i don't need the cash flow, and really like the compounding effect on shares counts...

    all this just buys me another cup of coffee at mcd's...

    ntb

    Sentiment: Hold

  • late last week - maybe the wkend - i sugg'd that a sub-$3 stock(CMBX) was a better value than UNIS, and that's i'd re-buy that one first, as a result...and so i did...

    this am - EARLY, yet, here are absurdly early results...

    CBMX UP 4+% today thus far, on 155K shares traded, and UNIS down 2-1/2 %, on sub-100K shares traded...

    that news, and 99 cents, buys you a small cup of coffee at mcd's tonite...

    ntb

    Sentiment: Sell

  • nutstoobolts nutstoobolts Apr 15, 2014 9:55 AM Flag

    jeffie-baby, you have got it WRONG!!! you want people to BUY in, and drive the pps HIGHER, so you can sell short, and make more $$ on these idiots, right??

    ntb

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 2 stocks - one, a 335 MIL market cap co (UNIS), and the other, a 30 MIL (1/11th the size) market cap co. the former priced at 3.50 or so, the latter at 2.70 or so...both indirectly biopharma co's - one, makes needle delivery systems; the other offers DNA testing for many genetic-based disorders. so, WHICH is the better buy based on FUNDAMENTALS, and why?? i've owned both...and i'll buy one - yet again - monday...and it'll be the smaller, 30 MIL market cap co. WHY???

    because the fundamentals are far stronger, even though the corporate size is much smaller. UNIS price/sales ratio of 44+...CBMX's is less than 5 (the pps of this stock is less than 5 times the sales volume, not 44 times the sales volume...

    UNIS has 6x more debt than cash (24 MIL vs 4 MIL( vs CBMX, (56x more cash - $14 MIL) vs debt (less than 250K)...

    UNIS 20+% of float shorted vs CBMX 10% of float shorted...

    PRICE-to-BOOK (assets) nearly 13 for UNIS, 2 for CBMX...meaning an investor pays much less in $$ for a share of CBMX than UNIS...

    YoY qtrly growth rate of 400+% for UNIS, less than 20% for CBMX (slam dunk for UNIS here, in albeit a less than critical category, although it does matter...

    so, WHICH is the better value as a stock price-per-share?

    in my analysis, CBMX...in yours, perhaps UNIS...

    doesn't really matter, but shows you an intriguing comparison between two vastly different spec. bio-pharma tangential stocks...

    and gives a good example of how you can compare any two similar stocks side-by-side by fundamentas.

    technical analysis would be different, and the decision more debatable...

    ntb

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    The Polar Vortex

    by jimpilner Apr 11, 2014 12:07 AM
    nutstoobolts nutstoobolts Apr 11, 2014 3:44 AM Flag

    UNIS probably IS under-valued, but part of the reason for that is that AS simply has NOT been able to execute the way he's suggested he would be able to...

    as far as UNDER-valued biotechs - in a manner of speaking - check out ELTP and BIEL - i've been in both multiple times in the past 3 months, and made relative killings in both, and will again...i like BOTH significantly more than UNIS right now - both have substantially more UPside pot'l than UNIS does at present...

    and, BTW, referencing the "polar vortex", the cold weather atmospheric stream, is quite a stretch for a biopharma - or high P/E tech - sell-off...the high P/E's are the real reason, NOT a low temperature atmospheric stream of air!...

    ntb

    Sentiment: Sell

  • nutstoobolts nutstoobolts Apr 10, 2014 7:38 PM Flag

    mcchesty, i appreciate the sardonic humor, and the subversive 'slap in the face'...

    BUT, "... I sold some others for loss to load fully on UNIS"???

    had to sell others for a LOSS, and put those $$ into UNIS?? couldn't come up with $3.50/share for, say, 10,000 shares?? WOW!!! that's a measly $35,000...

    i'm UN-impressed...thought you had "game" - ends up, you're on "pins and needles"...

    oh well...

    ntb

    Sentiment: Sell

  • i own quite a few stocks...one used to be UNIS...had a"V-8 moment" and sold out completely, made a nice hunk of change, and in retrospect, very glad i did...

    now, i'm NOT shorting UNIS...pps too low for it to make sense...

    but every which way (to steal part of the movie title from clint eastwood) that i look at this stock, it's an imlosion waiting to happen, part of which has already occured...

    i've already covered fibonacci levels tonite...now, here are some troubling fundamentals...

    - cash in bank - 4 MIL
    - debt - 25 MIL
    - credit line at 12% interest - 60 MIL
    - price-to-sales - a gauge of share price compared to sales volume - the LOWER the better - preferably at 10-15 or less, ideally - 44
    - operating margin - -700% - not very good...(that's not a typo - MINUS 700%)...
    - 42% of float owned by fund mgrs - had to have bought over $5.00 pps based on charter guidelines...
    - CEO ownership - 6.7 MIL shares, most based on options, may not be fully vested yet...
    -earnings per share mrq - -17 cents...

    clearly, this company's fundamentals are not particularly strong, if you own it, and could be considered dismal, if you don't...the current 'shorts' percentage partially reflects the weakness in these fundamentals...

    i'm watching this stock until / unless i can clearly see undeniable, compelling reasons to buy back in...not yet, people, not yet...

    i suspect there are quite a few retail stock owners currently 'under water', aka 'in the red'...

    ntb

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Market????

    by mcchesney.elda Apr 10, 2014 1:53 PM
    nutstoobolts nutstoobolts Apr 10, 2014 1:58 PM Flag

    like any lottery "you buys your ticket and you takes your chances"...

    an interesting fact about today's market for any number of "momo" stocks, a number of which i own shares of...

    many had significant gains yesterday, and have so far held some of those gains today...

    not so UNIS - gained .13 yest., and so fa down .19 today...

    not significant, but a curious observation...

    ntb

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    TOMORROWS SHORT REPORT

    by j.sellitti Apr 8, 2014 1:02 PM
    nutstoobolts nutstoobolts Apr 9, 2014 11:39 AM Flag

    bower, that's right - 'trumpet' a 4% 'gain' which is now more than halved - pps is down nearly $2 from its high!...

    if holders - or traders - are swayed by shorts - what does that say about their lack of conviction in this 'investment'...

    face it - so far, you've been WRONG about this stock and its pps - and, unfortunately for you, i've been RIGHT...

    no matter how you 'couch it', you can't change that fact...

    i'm actually tempted to buy back in now - i've sure got enough 'dry powder', but i can't find a compelling reason to do it...

    on the other hand, i sold out on many 1,000's of shares of ELTP for a major gain at .94, and just bought in again today at .28...

    each to his/her own...

    ntb

    Sentiment: Sell

  • nutstoobolts by nutstoobolts Apr 9, 2014 11:04 AM Flag

    'stewie' has used his megaphone for years now to publicize "phantom" developments. most who have 'followed' INTK know this already...

    well, today, 0 SHARES TRADED!! at less than 2 cents pps, 0 shares traded!!!

    no one wants to buy, and what the heck is the point of selling...MAYBE lightening will strike - either stewie, or the earth, whichever comes first...LOL!!!

    he's SUCH a b******** artist - and i know - i've spoken with him on the PHONE directly in the past!!!

    LOL!!!!!!!!!

    ntb

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • nutstoobolts by nutstoobolts Apr 9, 2014 10:38 AM Flag

    ELTP is definitely a spec bio-pharma. but so are MANY, incl. MNKD, INS, OXGN, and the list goes on and on and on...

    i was in at .60, out at .95, and haven't been back in since...till now...

    and, as with many such spec stocks, ELTP's pot'l is definitely 'up there'. it will take time to reach it and realize it, but it's doubtful the pps drops back down below, say, .25...it's in a different developmental stage, with an increased visibility, and milestones within reach, albeit around a corner...

    this is NOT a stock for $$ you need for mortgages, college educations, debt payments on loans or cc's, etc. but IF you've got available 'dry powder' that isn't earmarked for any of the above, it's not a bad spec...

    jmo...

    ntb

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    TOMORROWS SHORT REPORT

    by j.sellitti Apr 8, 2014 1:02 PM
    nutstoobolts nutstoobolts Apr 9, 2014 8:40 AM Flag

    hey, blower, i'll leave this board when i'm good and ready...yes, i've got alot of 'dry power'...but then, i earned it with savvy trading and other means. i could not care less what anyone on this board thinks about my potings, incl. you. i call it the way i see it, and so far, i've been far more right about UNIS and AS than wrong...

    and if UNIS goes to $10, i may or may not leave and/or stop posting on this board. i do as i please, and no one will influence my decisions, incl. but not limited to you...

    the fact that the stock price has dropped to where it has is NOT an indication of SHORTS influence, for those suggesting that. it is an indication of enough skepticism in the overall marketplace about UNIS stock that virtually no would-be investors are stepping in, even at 3.50 or so, and buying this stock hand over fist, because they don't trust the co. prospects or the CEO's statements about pending major deals. deal with that, as it is FACT. otherwise, the stock would have jumped back up to 4.75 or above, on enough 'buy' orders to get it there, and volume generated by all those buy orders...

    ntb

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    I emailed Alan Shortall

    by mrobertskc Apr 8, 2014 1:46 PM
    nutstoobolts nutstoobolts Apr 8, 2014 1:52 PM Flag

    i can't tell if this 'holder' and poster is a SHORT, or a legitimately concerned 'long', but i will nevertheless commend him on a well-written, pointed, un-emotional appeal to the apparent figurehead of UNIS, and the mover/shaker, asking him for some 'bottom-line' answers...

    he puts into words the concerns, i'm sure, of numerous holders of this stock, and i'm relieved to not currently be one of them...

    the sad, irritating part is that i would be very surprised if AS furnishes a worthwhile reply to what seems to be a well-stated entreaty asking for commentary, 'color', and no-nonsense input...

    ntb

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    TOMORROWS SHORT REPORT

    by j.sellitti Apr 8, 2014 1:02 PM
    nutstoobolts nutstoobolts Apr 8, 2014 1:40 PM Flag

    selliti, i'm not 'going down', because i'm neither short nor a holder...

    but i get the 'shorts' MORE than the holders at this point...

    i just can't justify being either at present - and i'm sure glad i'm not either at present!...

    BUT if i had to pick one side or the other, with a gun pointed at my temple, believe it or not, i'd go SHORT!...jmo...

    ntb

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    TOMORROWS SHORT REPORT

    by j.sellitti Apr 8, 2014 1:02 PM
    nutstoobolts nutstoobolts Apr 8, 2014 1:32 PM Flag

    AS has NOTHING to announce, or he would have in the past 4 months!!

    what rose-colored glasses are YOU wearing?? the fact that soooo many shares are being shorted is simply a commentary on the skepticism on 'the street' about UNIS and AS...

    it is NOT a positive statement...!...

    you, and 'minny', and a few others periodically posting on this board (minny has been relatively quiet, but then, what is there to say, other than 'patience'??) either have 'infinite patience', $$ to burn (as i do), or faith in this co. that borders on 'born again christians'...

    i sense a general 'tenor' of increasing concern, and confusion on this board...i wonder why...could it be that the only PR of any note was a $60M line of credit, and no new contacts in nearly 4 mos???

    LOL!!!

    i've gone from believer to doubter to down-right skeptic...

    ntb

    Sentiment: Sell

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