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nutz4stocks 108 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 22, 2015 6:51 AM Member since: Nov 20, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Ingles up 40% in the past month

    by kgregt3 Jan 3, 2015 8:52 AM
    nutz4stocks nutz4stocks Jan 22, 2015 6:51 AM Flag

    Here's a tidbit for you...in the last 18 months Robert Ingle (2) has sold over 100 million dollars worth of IMKTA including some option excercises that were sold open market.

    02/12/2014 INGLE ROBERT P II Options Exercised $0.00 19.00K 0.00 500.99K
    02/12/2014 INGLE ROBERT P II Sale $67.26K 3.00K 22.42 114.33K
    02/12/2014 INGLE ROBERT P II Sale $44.81K 2.00K 22.41 117.33K
    02/12/2014 INGLE ROBERT P II Sale $313.78K 14.00K 22.41 119.33K
    02/12/2014 INGLE ROBERT P II Options Exercised $0.00 19.00K 0.00 133.33K
    03/04/2014 INGLE ROBERT P II Options Exercised $0.00 8.60K 0.00 492.39K
    03/04/2014 INGLE ROBERT P II Sale $63.75K 2.68K 23.82 114.33K
    03/04/2014 INGLE ROBERT P II Sale $25.37K 1.06K 23.84 117.01K
    03/04/2014 INGLE ROBERT P II Sale $115.93K 4.86K 23.85 118.07K
    03/04/2014 INGLE ROBERT P II Options Exercised $0.00 8.60K 0.00 122.93K
    05/13/2014 INGLE SHARP LAURA Sale $53.07K 1.96K 27.10 28.68K
    05/13/2014 INGLE SHARP LAURA Sale $68.41K 2.51K 27.30 30.64K
    05/13/2014 INGLE SHARP LAURA Sale $14.64K 536.00 27.31 33.14K
    06/11/2014 INGLE ROBERT P II Options Exercised $0.00 5.50K 0.00 442.89K
    06/11/2014 INGLE ROBERT P II Sale $19.31K 712.00 27.12 114.33K
    06/11/2014 INGLE ROBERT P II Sale $57.19K 2.11K 27.08 115.04K
    06/11/2014 INGLE ROBERT P II Sale $72.87K 2.68K 27.23 117.16K
    06/11/2014 INGLE ROBERT P II Options Exercised $0.00 5.50K 0.00 119.83K

  • Reply to

    THE NUMBERS...

    by fudgey104 Jan 20, 2015 11:40 AM
    nutz4stocks nutz4stocks Jan 21, 2015 10:49 AM Flag

    I can attempt an opinion, I don't know if you would consider it an explanation. Sales have been flat because
    they haven't added to the store base/retail square footage etc. at all during the period you mention. They have added some fuel stations. Their rise in debt levels is mainly related to support expenses such as expansions at the warehousing facilities in Asheville, which doesn't contribute directly to sales, and store remodelings which help the company remain competitive. They expect to continue to spend 100-140 million on cap ex. into the future.

    Like many companies did in anticipation of a significant tax increase IMKTA paid a special dividend in late 2012.

    They had the major debt refi in 2013 and....

    The stock repurchase programs, particularly the one authorized by the board in the summer of 2013 have also added significant debt.

    All 4,000,000 shares totaling $106,000,000 have already been repurchased, basically from Bob Ingles' heirs (aka Bob Ingle (II)) Where did the company get the money to buy those shares? It appears they borrowed most of it, as net borrowings rose 24.8 million in 2013 and 65.8 million in 2014. You asked where the $140 million went? Most of it went into juniors pocket.

    During the three year period you mentioned, the market as measured by the S& P has risen from 145 to 207. IMKTA as well as other grocers in it's per group have risen too. The price of real estate is rising, the price of oil/gas has been falling etc., all contributing to an overall rise in grocer shares.

    The rise in shares of many of the grocers to P/E's above 20X is extreme for what has traditionally been a low growth industry. IMHO IMKTA has become expensive, or at the least fully valued, but so have the others. Many are hitting new 52 week highs. Low interest rates, tons of money being pumped in by the Fed for so long has resulted in people and companies chasing yield. That money has to go somewhere. They finally found IMKTA.

  • Reply to

    Any News

    by vin_007_13 Jan 21, 2015 9:44 AM
    nutz4stocks nutz4stocks Jan 21, 2015 10:00 AM Flag

    This is the only thing I could find....old news..

    Intercept Pharmaceuticals (ICPT) Bullish Stance Reiterated at BMO Capital amid American Journal of Pathology OCA Data
    9:40 AM ET, 01/21/2015 - StreetInsider
    BMO Capital analyst Jim Birchenough reiterated an Outperform rating and $515 price target on Intercept Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ICPT) after The American Journal of Pathology published data for ICPT's OCA suggesting it may have a role in bacterial translocation (BTL), a common condition in chronic liver disease that leads to spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, itself the most common infection in patients with cirrhosis.
    Birchenough commented, "We are reiterating our Outperform rating on the shares of ICPT following publication of data on bacterial translocation and differentiated effect of FXR agonist OCA compared with incumbent brand URSO. We would note that 75% of PBC patients suffer colitis and effects on BTL could mitigate bacterial-led inflammation in small bile ducts, in PBC, as well as larger ducts in primary sclerosing cholangitis. Prevention of BTL could have broader effects in NASH and cirrhosis as it is both a prelude and propagator of liver decompensation."
    For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Intercept Pharmaceuticals click here. For more ratings news on Intercept Pharmaceuticals click here.
    Shares of Intercept Pharmaceuticals closed at $156.70 yesterday.

  • Reply to

    Ingles up 40% in the past month

    by kgregt3 Jan 3, 2015 8:52 AM
    nutz4stocks nutz4stocks Jan 21, 2015 6:39 AM Flag

    @deepharbor...thankx for your input. I think I remember you from way back too. I would be hesitant to say that a buy out price would be below $50. It's a sellers market. A back of the napkin ball park high end price @ say a P/E of 22.5, the same P/E that Kroger paid for Harris Teeter, would put the price in the low 50's @ $51.30 But Harris Teeter is considered a higher end grocer and has higher margins than IMKTA does.

    One thing is certain, IMKTA is a lot closer to fully valued now than it was two months ago.

  • nutz4stocks nutz4stocks Jan 20, 2015 7:15 AM Flag

    Not a chance. Sorry.

  • nutz4stocks nutz4stocks Jan 20, 2015 7:14 AM Flag

    Pre-market it already traded from $2.50 down to $1.75. Not much more until they take out Fridays low of $1.50.

  • Reply to

    Who's buying? Who's selling?

    by nutz4stocks Jan 17, 2015 11:20 AM
    nutz4stocks nutz4stocks Jan 19, 2015 5:42 PM Flag

    @jridley

    Every quarter, large investors must disclose what stocks they own in the U.S. via 13F filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The SEC also requires investors who own more than 5% of the stock in a public company to disclose within two days any buying or selling of those shares on a form called a Schedule 13D.

    The four companies I mentioned were the largest reported sellers of the stock as of the quarter ended September 30, 2014. River Road WAS a 5% holder, thus requiring 13D, but they notified the SEC on January 9th that they no longer held the 5% required to keep them in that category. What catches people's attention isn't just that they sold some, but the magnitude of their sales.

    There are about 115 funds that hold about 9.4 million shares of IMKTA. Most of those funds never reach the 5% threshold. But several have. The 19 billion dollar Gabelli Fund is currently the largest outside holder of IMKTA. Gabelli has investments in about 1100 companies one of which is IMKTA. He's held stakes of various sizes since the 90's

    Dimensional fund is also a longtime holder. They started buiding their position in 2002.
    Funds buy and sell all the time for various reasons that include redemptions from their funds (ie folks just want their cash) to management decisions that a certain stock is fully valued, or even over valued etc.

    What is interesting about these two is that both were 13D holders back in 2006. In 2006, during the real estate bubble, IMKTA ran up into the 40's and became quite extended based on it's percieved hidden real estate values rather than it's fundamentals as an operating company. Both funds recognized it as overvalued and significantly reduced their positions.

    Why would four "big boys" seemingly go down the wrong path?
    That would be a matter of opinion. Who's says it's the wrong path? My guess is that they are simply taking some off the table as any prudent investor would after a run up of this magnitude.

  • Reply to

    Ingles up 40% in the past month

    by kgregt3 Jan 3, 2015 8:52 AM
    nutz4stocks nutz4stocks Jan 17, 2015 1:15 PM Flag

    There's a pretty good reason for that.

    Bob Ingle died in 2011. (R.I.P)

    Ingles is a company in transition from it's founder to his heirs. Most of the board that worked closely with Bob Ingle other than his children, Bob II and Laura, are either retired or dead.

    Those folks already sold off their stock. Several of the retired board members who are no long active in day to day management act as outside independent directors. The independent directors own little or no stock and are paid for their services in cash, so they no longer recieve any options.

    Both Brenda Tudor and Ernest E Ferguson don't own a single share. Fred D Ayers owns 500 shares and L Keith Collins owns 254 shares.

    So half the eight member board owns fewer shares than I do. They don't have any stock left to sell.

    Charles E Russel who was on the board died last September, and another former member of the board, John Pollard retired due to health reasons last month.

    They are actively searching for another replacement board member as we speak.

    Other than Bob (ll) and Laura, the only other board members currently sitting at the annual meeting in two weeks will be Jim Lanning and Ron Freemen.

  • nutz4stocks by nutz4stocks Jan 17, 2015 11:20 AM Flag

    Who's selling???

    I sold a few on Friday but I don't count. But those that do are the top fund holders etc.

    Gabelli, Blackrock, Barclays, and River Road have all been reducing their stake for about a year. What everybody wants to know is what about the recent run up since December? The only one already having reported end of the year numbers is River Road. Between 9/30/2014 and 12/31/2014 they substantially reduced their stake from 833,672 to 499,715. A drop of about 334,000 shares. From 6/30/2014 to 9/30/2014, they only sold 20,000 shares. So, they have accelerated their sales into the recent parabolic rise. My guess is that we will see accelerated sales from the others listed above when they report as well.

    Who's buying? Well, it's not the shorts, at least not in December anyway. Short interest actually rose in December. It will be interesting to see if it keeps rising this month.

    GLA

  • Reply to

    Selling,,,, or Buying?

    by whisperingpines1962 Jan 13, 2015 11:41 AM
    nutz4stocks nutz4stocks Jan 17, 2015 10:38 AM Flag

    @jridley...

    IMHO ...If there was a buy out the most likely buyer would be Kroger. They already announced on their most recent conference call that they are actively look for another major acquisition. Safeway has it's hands full being gobbled up by Albertsons. Of course the PE guys that will control ABS/SWY have the ability and desire to borrow so much money at such cheap rates now, you never know.

    For Publix, a buy out of IMKTA would be the largest acquisition they've ever made and would increase their store base by about 20% They haven't bought an entire company since the 1930's. They certainly have the cash to do it, but it's not really their management style. It's more their style to stick to internal growth and/or purchase a fewer stores from others, not buy the whole chain.

  • nutz4stocks nutz4stocks Jan 17, 2015 8:06 AM Flag

    ???????????

    Shorts will do just fine. It's not like they shorted @ $1.50. They're still in the black, unless you expect this thing to be something above $15 on it's Tuesday open, which would be insane.

  • nutz4stocks nutz4stocks Jan 17, 2015 7:58 AM Flag

    NITE was acquired by Jeffries, the same folks that are riding to the rescue here.

  • Reply to

    Late action

    by titan1000000 Jan 16, 2015 4:14 PM
    nutz4stocks nutz4stocks Jan 17, 2015 7:14 AM Flag

    I saw that too. It traded low volume, something like 300K all day up until minutes before the bell and then has a 200K buy/sell on close order?

  • nutz4stocks nutz4stocks Jan 16, 2015 12:50 PM Flag

    They went under in 2005. If remember reading that Jim Rogers lost a ton of money and sued em.

  • Reply to

    you have to be kidding

    by russ69v Jan 16, 2015 10:05 AM
    nutz4stocks nutz4stocks Jan 16, 2015 10:11 AM Flag

    No...they're not kidding. It just goes to show you how useful they are. Anyone can upgrade or downgrade the stock once it's already moved.

  • Reply to

    Ingles up 40% in the past month

    by kgregt3 Jan 3, 2015 8:52 AM
    nutz4stocks nutz4stocks Jan 15, 2015 7:32 AM Flag

    BTW.....I just thought of something funny...

    What's the difference between being rich and being wealthy?

    Kobe Bryan is rich. The guy who signs his check is wealthy.-----Chris Rock.

  • Reply to

    Ingles up 40% in the past month

    by kgregt3 Jan 3, 2015 8:52 AM
    nutz4stocks nutz4stocks Jan 15, 2015 7:00 AM Flag

    @jridley...thanks for the reply. First, she, and the board have a fiduciary obligation to maximize shareholder value. In theory at least, that means any public company should be for sale at all times, given the right price. Knowing and agreeing on that, then your comment suggests she knew in September, the date of her last reported sale, that the company was in active negotiations to be acquired and it would be at significantly higher price. It would be different if her sale was yesterday, but it was before the recent parabolic climb.

    Second, while I agree that it would be unlikely she would be elected to the board of an acquirer, options purchases unlike common or preferred stock, normally have expiration dates. The exercise of options triggers taxes consequences. Most executives immediately sell at least enough of the newly acquired stock to cover what they will owe in tax.

    Third, her reason for selling is all speculation from anyone other than her. It could be taxes, a new dress, or cash donations to charity. What we do know is the timing of the sale. Even then we only know it after the fact. What we do know is that she wanted the money then, not later. If you know an investment will be worth more tomorrow than it is today, why would you ever sell anything? It's because price isn't the only factor to consider.

    Wealthy people spend more on flowers than the average person does on a car. I've seen wealthy people blow more money on the roll of the dice @ a craps table in Vegas than the average American makes in a year. My point is that when you are wealthy each incremental dollar of income tends to have less and less value to you. What you and I may perceive as "nothing to sneeze at" could be pocket change to someone else.

    GLA

  • Reply to

    New 52 week high"-"

    by buffetlike Nov 12, 2014 5:27 PM
    nutz4stocks nutz4stocks Jan 14, 2015 11:20 PM Flag

    @Buffetlike...

    Don't I remember you from back then? Have you held a position for a long time? I sold substantially all of my position above $40 then, when everyone was talking about IMKTA's unlocked real estate value. I wish I would have sold my house too when every sale on my block was going for a million dollars...LOL

    I bought a small token position when it tumbled back into the teens, the yield was nice, but I haven't built it into much. I've been around, I just didn't post or even look at this board for ages. There wasn't much going on.

  • nutz4stocks by nutz4stocks Jan 14, 2015 10:47 PM Flag

    So Mark sells $2.5 million dollars worth of stock four days before earnings are announced and the stock drops 30% on 8X normal volume....

    I wonder if he had some inside information.....

    By the way....he's still selling.

  • Reply to

    Conference

    by captinhook98 Jan 14, 2015 2:31 PM
    nutz4stocks nutz4stocks Jan 14, 2015 3:16 PM Flag

    Up $7 going in........give it all back on the way out......

    No volume so he couldn't have said anything important.

    It probably went something like this:

    "Hey Mark....What's happening?"

    "Nothing new....we're still burning through cash as fast as we can light it on fire. It's exciting though...because it's somebody else's cash and we grab some for ourselves before we burn it. And I'm getting pretty **&^ good at this presentation thing, I should be, I do it about once a week."

    "Should we buy your stock?"

    "Well I'm selling it......I asked Melissa Lee if she might want to buy some and she said.....(*&^ no.......ICPT is one cwappy stock"

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