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American International Group, Inc. Message Board

nutz4stocks 19 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 20, 2015 8:33 AM Member since: Nov 20, 2000
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  • Reply to

    BIG Problem...

    by fudgey104 Feb 19, 2015 10:06 AM
    nutz4stocks nutz4stocks Feb 20, 2015 8:33 AM Flag

    Ingles didn't just start competing with Wal-Mart yesterday. If Wal-Marts labor costs rise, then in order to maintain margins, eventually they must raise prices. If IMKTA's labor costs rise, they will raise prices as well. In short, no single company, not even one as large as Wal-Mart, can control the labor marketplace. Business doesn't contol the labor market, it reacts to it.

  • Reply to

    As suspected....Short Interest...rising

    by nutz4stocks Feb 11, 2015 12:57 PM
    nutz4stocks nutz4stocks Feb 16, 2015 7:04 AM Flag

    Oh, by the way, I'll be requesting your personal information so I can present them with the facts you've stated...

    LMAO......hang on......I almost spilled my coffee :)

  • Reply to

    As suspected....Short Interest...rising

    by nutz4stocks Feb 11, 2015 12:57 PM
    nutz4stocks nutz4stocks Feb 15, 2015 3:43 PM Flag

    @fudgey104

    Thanks for the reply. I can't speak for E*Trade because I don't use them. But Charles Schwab, Interactive Brokers,TD Ameritrade, Merrill Edge, Fidelity, and yes even Scottrade all have shares available for me.

    I don't know what else to say except check again?

    GLA

  • Reply to

    As suspected....Short Interest...rising

    by nutz4stocks Feb 11, 2015 12:57 PM
    nutz4stocks nutz4stocks Feb 13, 2015 8:46 PM Flag

    Impossible to short? Somebody should tell my brokers. I use a half dozen different ones and every single one has shares to borrow. IMKTA isn't on the hard to short list. I've been tracking it almost since it's IPO and I've never seen it on the hard to short list. Even with the above average short interest it has now, it's still only 3.4% of the float.

  • Who's buying? Well, it's not the shorts, at least not in December anyway. Short interest actually rose in December. It will be interesting to see if it keeps rising this month.

    Short Interest.....
    Is still rising. The latest data (for the last two weeks of January) released yesterday show a 100,000 build (almost 27%) from 359,000 to 458,000 shares short. That's the highest level I've seen in ages, at least three years. So the big $$$ was a seller into the recent run up. I guess I'm not the only one that thinks IMKTA got a bit ahead of itself in the high 40's.

    GLA

  • Reply to

    Anyone on here about to trade ICPT on Margin?

    by bigvalvenus Feb 9, 2015 12:57 PM
    nutz4stocks nutz4stocks Feb 10, 2015 6:28 PM Flag

    ICPT is not marginable.

  • nutz4stocks nutz4stocks Feb 5, 2015 9:07 AM Flag

    Everybody on the inside is selling. You've given up the entire $40 jump on FDA fast track in 3 days. If somebody like David has options all the way out another 8 years and is selling here... what does that tell you?

    I've been playin this game for 40 years & have never seen a game up soooo much on good news...only to see it come back down down in hours...minutes...seconds....

    PS...I sold @ $350 too.....

    If the Chief Marketing Officer though his stock would be worth more (options don't expire for another 8 YEARS!!!) sells the #$%$ outta it....then he ain't exactly committed to the cause is he??????

  • Reply to

    Great timing CFO !

    by rupert11xx Feb 3, 2015 6:53 PM
    nutz4stocks nutz4stocks Feb 4, 2015 6:37 AM Flag

    Great timing indeed. Thursday night after hours (1/29) the stock pops $40 bucks on the FDA news and the first thing Mark and his boys do when they get to the office on Friday morning is hit the sell button above $200 share. Then Tuesday night after hours (2/3) they announce another round of stock sales.

  • nutz4stocks nutz4stocks Feb 2, 2015 12:21 PM Flag

    The only thing for certain is that every time they say anything good and the stock pops, they sell the snot outta this thing. It's still on the hard to borrow list. It regularly trades in $10 daily swings, if you are a trader you can make some money with this thing if you pay attention. You knew it would come back down when it dropped all the way from AH/Pre market high of 235 back to close @just above @200.

    GLA

  • Reply to

    Ingles up 40% in the past month

    by kgregt3 Jan 3, 2015 8:52 AM
    nutz4stocks nutz4stocks Jan 22, 2015 6:51 AM Flag

    Here's a tidbit for you...in the last 18 months Robert Ingle (2) has sold over 100 million dollars worth of IMKTA including some option excercises that were sold open market.

    02/12/2014 INGLE ROBERT P II Options Exercised $0.00 19.00K 0.00 500.99K
    02/12/2014 INGLE ROBERT P II Sale $67.26K 3.00K 22.42 114.33K
    02/12/2014 INGLE ROBERT P II Sale $44.81K 2.00K 22.41 117.33K
    02/12/2014 INGLE ROBERT P II Sale $313.78K 14.00K 22.41 119.33K
    02/12/2014 INGLE ROBERT P II Options Exercised $0.00 19.00K 0.00 133.33K
    03/04/2014 INGLE ROBERT P II Options Exercised $0.00 8.60K 0.00 492.39K
    03/04/2014 INGLE ROBERT P II Sale $63.75K 2.68K 23.82 114.33K
    03/04/2014 INGLE ROBERT P II Sale $25.37K 1.06K 23.84 117.01K
    03/04/2014 INGLE ROBERT P II Sale $115.93K 4.86K 23.85 118.07K
    03/04/2014 INGLE ROBERT P II Options Exercised $0.00 8.60K 0.00 122.93K
    05/13/2014 INGLE SHARP LAURA Sale $53.07K 1.96K 27.10 28.68K
    05/13/2014 INGLE SHARP LAURA Sale $68.41K 2.51K 27.30 30.64K
    05/13/2014 INGLE SHARP LAURA Sale $14.64K 536.00 27.31 33.14K
    06/11/2014 INGLE ROBERT P II Options Exercised $0.00 5.50K 0.00 442.89K
    06/11/2014 INGLE ROBERT P II Sale $19.31K 712.00 27.12 114.33K
    06/11/2014 INGLE ROBERT P II Sale $57.19K 2.11K 27.08 115.04K
    06/11/2014 INGLE ROBERT P II Sale $72.87K 2.68K 27.23 117.16K
    06/11/2014 INGLE ROBERT P II Options Exercised $0.00 5.50K 0.00 119.83K

  • Reply to

    THE NUMBERS...

    by fudgey104 Jan 20, 2015 11:40 AM
    nutz4stocks nutz4stocks Jan 21, 2015 10:49 AM Flag

    I can attempt an opinion, I don't know if you would consider it an explanation. Sales have been flat because
    they haven't added to the store base/retail square footage etc. at all during the period you mention. They have added some fuel stations. Their rise in debt levels is mainly related to support expenses such as expansions at the warehousing facilities in Asheville, which doesn't contribute directly to sales, and store remodelings which help the company remain competitive. They expect to continue to spend 100-140 million on cap ex. into the future.

    Like many companies did in anticipation of a significant tax increase IMKTA paid a special dividend in late 2012.

    They had the major debt refi in 2013 and....

    The stock repurchase programs, particularly the one authorized by the board in the summer of 2013 have also added significant debt.

    All 4,000,000 shares totaling $106,000,000 have already been repurchased, basically from Bob Ingles' heirs (aka Bob Ingle (II)) Where did the company get the money to buy those shares? It appears they borrowed most of it, as net borrowings rose 24.8 million in 2013 and 65.8 million in 2014. You asked where the $140 million went? Most of it went into juniors pocket.

    During the three year period you mentioned, the market as measured by the S& P has risen from 145 to 207. IMKTA as well as other grocers in it's per group have risen too. The price of real estate is rising, the price of oil/gas has been falling etc., all contributing to an overall rise in grocer shares.

    The rise in shares of many of the grocers to P/E's above 20X is extreme for what has traditionally been a low growth industry. IMHO IMKTA has become expensive, or at the least fully valued, but so have the others. Many are hitting new 52 week highs. Low interest rates, tons of money being pumped in by the Fed for so long has resulted in people and companies chasing yield. That money has to go somewhere. They finally found IMKTA.

  • Reply to

    Any News

    by vin_007_13 Jan 21, 2015 9:44 AM
    nutz4stocks nutz4stocks Jan 21, 2015 10:00 AM Flag

    This is the only thing I could find....old news..

    Intercept Pharmaceuticals (ICPT) Bullish Stance Reiterated at BMO Capital amid American Journal of Pathology OCA Data
    9:40 AM ET, 01/21/2015 - StreetInsider
    BMO Capital analyst Jim Birchenough reiterated an Outperform rating and $515 price target on Intercept Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ICPT) after The American Journal of Pathology published data for ICPT's OCA suggesting it may have a role in bacterial translocation (BTL), a common condition in chronic liver disease that leads to spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, itself the most common infection in patients with cirrhosis.
    Birchenough commented, "We are reiterating our Outperform rating on the shares of ICPT following publication of data on bacterial translocation and differentiated effect of FXR agonist OCA compared with incumbent brand URSO. We would note that 75% of PBC patients suffer colitis and effects on BTL could mitigate bacterial-led inflammation in small bile ducts, in PBC, as well as larger ducts in primary sclerosing cholangitis. Prevention of BTL could have broader effects in NASH and cirrhosis as it is both a prelude and propagator of liver decompensation."
    For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Intercept Pharmaceuticals click here. For more ratings news on Intercept Pharmaceuticals click here.
    Shares of Intercept Pharmaceuticals closed at $156.70 yesterday.

  • Reply to

    Ingles up 40% in the past month

    by kgregt3 Jan 3, 2015 8:52 AM
    nutz4stocks nutz4stocks Jan 21, 2015 6:39 AM Flag

    @deepharbor...thankx for your input. I think I remember you from way back too. I would be hesitant to say that a buy out price would be below $50. It's a sellers market. A back of the napkin ball park high end price @ say a P/E of 22.5, the same P/E that Kroger paid for Harris Teeter, would put the price in the low 50's @ $51.30 But Harris Teeter is considered a higher end grocer and has higher margins than IMKTA does.

    One thing is certain, IMKTA is a lot closer to fully valued now than it was two months ago.

  • nutz4stocks by nutz4stocks Jan 17, 2015 11:20 AM Flag

    Who's selling???

    I sold a few on Friday but I don't count. But those that do are the top fund holders etc.

    Gabelli, Blackrock, Barclays, and River Road have all been reducing their stake for about a year. What everybody wants to know is what about the recent run up since December? The only one already having reported end of the year numbers is River Road. Between 9/30/2014 and 12/31/2014 they substantially reduced their stake from 833,672 to 499,715. A drop of about 334,000 shares. From 6/30/2014 to 9/30/2014, they only sold 20,000 shares. So, they have accelerated their sales into the recent parabolic rise. My guess is that we will see accelerated sales from the others listed above when they report as well.

    Who's buying? Well, it's not the shorts, at least not in December anyway. Short interest actually rose in December. It will be interesting to see if it keeps rising this month.

    GLA

  • Reply to

    Selling,,,, or Buying?

    by whisperingpines1962 Jan 13, 2015 11:41 AM
    nutz4stocks nutz4stocks Jan 17, 2015 10:38 AM Flag

    @jridley...

    IMHO ...If there was a buy out the most likely buyer would be Kroger. They already announced on their most recent conference call that they are actively look for another major acquisition. Safeway has it's hands full being gobbled up by Albertsons. Of course the PE guys that will control ABS/SWY have the ability and desire to borrow so much money at such cheap rates now, you never know.

    For Publix, a buy out of IMKTA would be the largest acquisition they've ever made and would increase their store base by about 20% They haven't bought an entire company since the 1930's. They certainly have the cash to do it, but it's not really their management style. It's more their style to stick to internal growth and/or purchase a fewer stores from others, not buy the whole chain.

  • nutz4stocks nutz4stocks Jan 17, 2015 7:58 AM Flag

    NITE was acquired by Jeffries, the same folks that are riding to the rescue here.

  • Reply to

    Late action

    by titan1000000 Jan 16, 2015 4:14 PM
    nutz4stocks nutz4stocks Jan 17, 2015 7:14 AM Flag

    I saw that too. It traded low volume, something like 300K all day up until minutes before the bell and then has a 200K buy/sell on close order?

  • Reply to

    Ingles up 40% in the past month

    by kgregt3 Jan 3, 2015 8:52 AM
    nutz4stocks nutz4stocks Jan 12, 2015 10:21 AM Flag

    @jridley....I didn't rate your post but I can tell you why.

    Do you want the complicated reason (FASB 123 and 1986 Internal Revenue Code) or the crib notes version? Let's just keep it at message board level for now eh? We'll save the accounting/tax lesson and deferred tax assets, deferred tax expense, and deferred compensation expenses for later.

    First, you are assuming she can predict the future. Most of us can't, at least for most things.

    Like all of us, Laura Ingle Sharp isn't getting any younger. That we can predict. That is certain. You can't spend $$$ and you don't need $$$ when you're dead.

    Like most of management, Laura Ingle Sharp is a regular seller of the stock and has been for years. But unlike us, management including Laura Ingles Sharp, doesn't buy theirs on the exchange, at least in most cases. They paid little or nothing for them, either through inheritance, or in many cases through stock options. They exercise them @ steep discounts to the current market price and then turn right around at sell them at the higher market price. This is how they continue to sell off the stock and in some cases their ownership does not go down. The shares they sold are simply replaced by more options.

    So, let's say you got the shares for $5 bucks. Sure your profit is greater at $40 than it is @ $25, but so what, you can always get more options. My simple point is that selling price is much more important to somebody that paid $25 for the shares (ie an open market buyer like you or I), than it is to someone that got stock options to buy them @ 25 cents.

  • Reply to

    Ingles up 40% in the past month

    by kgregt3 Jan 3, 2015 8:52 AM
    nutz4stocks nutz4stocks Jan 12, 2015 6:27 AM Flag

    Probably a combination of many things. IMKTA normally trades pretty thin and it doesn't take a whole lot of buying from the big guys to move it. Grocers are big beneficiaries of falling diesel prices, real estate values are improving etc. Although IMKTA has never really had a big short interest, it's SI has been elevated as of late. If there has been buying by the big guys that already own a chunk like Gabelli, we won't really know until they file the 13G with the SEC.

    I did notice big call buy of about a quarter of a million dollars on January 8th. Traders opened positions on the August 21st 2015 calls with a strike @ $40. These calls were ITM when purchased between $4.80 and $5.20 when the stock was between $40.54 and 42.21.

    Publix has recently moved into the state and are once again being speculated as a possible buyer. KR and others could be as well.

    Probably all of the above. The only thing to know for sure is that we will once again be the last to know.

    GLA

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