Just to bring to top what I mentioned to Zieg below - I think I had irrational exuberance when I posted - I am rapidly thinking this one out - I think the chances of sapphire screen on iPhones is very high, with some on the new iPhone to be announced - but how the stock reacts is an unknown, and with 40% of float short, the big boys won't let go easily, and can use FUD to knock the PPS back, even if the outlook for the company begins to solidify.
So I will have no more, and likely a tad less, than 1% of my assets in LEAPs on this stock when Sept 9 comes.
I agree with you - it is not proven yet - and even if Sept 9 works out well, there is a huge short presence, and they may be around a while, using FUD, as with QCOR - and FUD will be just as easy, because, as you say, the company is not proven.
I don't mean anyone should put a huge amount - perhaps speculative IS the right word. I won't have more than 1% of assets at risk, all in LEAPs, likely. And likey less than 1% -
It is a website - search on The Contarian Investor and choose the solar option (though really, the whole site is about solar, but gets you to GTAT thread - GTAT is a solar company that also happens to make the sapphire screen.)
Coincidentally own days? Shorting was 59% true volume on Monday and 45% true volume today .
And both days were low volume to start. So a big piece of today was not true price action.
More than just a day trading or options relevance - shows the shorts are getting wary and trying to keep the range lower before 9/9.
That is not what they would do if they believed there was to be no significance to 9/9. If they believed all was good for them, they would let the price run and short it later on or but puts along the way.
Not necessarily a squeeze if the screen - a few posts on the private board explain why. for example - some can protect themselves with LT calls and try to ride it out. Or there may be diehard Big Boy shorts that pour in more money, as we have seen in QCOR/MNK.
The more I have read on that board - and there is some amazing DD - the more I believe the sapphire screen is coming, and the worst case would be what an analyst said the other day, 30% of the iPhones (the ones with 64 gig memory) have the screen for the start and then ^s they all have. In this case, price goes to 20 or so, and the games intensify - and perhaps pressure builds into a sqyeeze.
Even if all phones have sapphire screen to start, as we have seen, well-moneyed shorts have ways of delaying price rise and capping losses.
The longs are a very self-assured group of people. Remind me of the QCOR board. I mean the MNK board.
interesting if true - always willing to learn - was taught by the QCOR board it was the MMs and shorts that fiddled with the bits....
This company seemed like a spec play - but the more I read through a most amazing private board, the more I see an opportunity, both ST and LT
There is a forum called The Contrarian Investor. Choose the solar option, then the GTAT thread - which dats back to March and is 214 pages long. There are many savvy people on there - even a person who knew to examine import-export records. LT, seems likely to hit at least 20 - LT, 450 or more in 2 years or so. At 17s now.
It is 40% shorted.
Do your own DD.
I think it is worthwhile to at least own LEAPs or shares with some cheap puts, if you are the nervous type.
so that means you will recover some of your money - but what about the interest you have been paying?
This stock in't going under 17 again unless the shorts step up the shorting, a dangerous thing to do now.
BAshers insult, sometimes without explanation
Bashers say things to inspire fear uncertainty distress (FUD)
Bashers are more active on down days
Bashers love to make snap judgements or statements with little or no explanation. (So do pumpers.)
On the site I have mentioned in this post, folks have established a well-reasoned proof that the iPhone is coming out with Sapphire screen, that price will go up to at least 20 when shorts realize that the guidance was not a hypothesis by CEO but was in fact based on preknowledge of the sapphire screen - and then it gets interesting. With assured sales for years to come, shprts are pressured to leave. They can drive up the price of calls, or perhaps just exit quickly. The hard core shorts may short more to buy time and examine what they can do to drive ST price down. If the stock gets to $25, most shorts will be eaten alive, cash in their protective calls, and go.
You remind me of Eeyore then if in fact you really are long.
The stuff I post is legit in investing - well know by people who trade and invest in stocks- odd that you find it stupid. Even odder that you never have anything positive to say that I have noticed in your posting history.
Those other handles above - friends of yours? Some bashers have more than one handle and use them to reinforce FUD
typical FUD - selling cpomes for many reasons. Most top level executives have legal agreements in place to sell options monthly or quarterly on a predetermined date - they draw up these agreements and file with SEC and get approved in advance so that cannot be accused of selling on inside information.
These sells are usually all based on stock options that would expire if unused.
Any expereinced investor knows this and know that a buy and sell means nothing.
A buy of stock options and a hold means everything - very bullish.
You have a legit hypothesis. Don't let the bashers fool you. Very typical that MMs do this. It is why you either need to be a LT investor, or have some sense of day trading. Stock is being held in check by the top Kelvin band and also by resistance line at 18.88
Support is at 17.50 The share price might dip below it for a moment, but if you have a preset order waiting, it is a way to use the MMs to hand you cheaper shares.
The amount and the type of bashers (soft, sly, aggressive) show that shorts are concerned and want you to leave. That is usually the reason to stay. It means long term, your thesis is correct. More than anything they hope you will sell before or just after 9/9, because at 41% short, they are in a bit of a mess if no one will sell shares.
This happened in QCOR. It just merged with MNK, only place I know where you can still see the chart is on the stock charts website.
You will see two years of peaks and valleys, when catalysts hit, then the shorts set in again - at one point, 50% of the float was shorted, but as the catalysts hit, the shorts went down as low as 9% then came back to 30%.
A typical tactic is what they are doing now - disappear on up days, reappear on down. They want to reinforce your insecurity - even if they can't get you to sell now, maybe later.
There was a great post on GALE that was a repost of someone's description of 6 things bashers do.
One is they insult unprovoked.
Another is they make statements without factual backup.
The smartest ones don't insult, and bring up legit facts, and actually become part of a real dialogue.
If you believe in a company, stay long and strong. If you are day trading, don't read the board - check the summary board and web search for news, and learn how to read a basic candle chart with a number of technicals on it.
See - I thought with factoids like this you were a legit poster - but your insults (anyone can read your posting history) have the reek of a basher. If so, you are simply a more polished basher.
Wow - you know so little about the market yet try to sound like you do.
Anyone - go to the usual video web site and search on Cramer manipulation and see an interesting video of Cramer himself explain how he used to use his hedge fund to manipulate stocks.
if you read through my posts, you would see I tend towards buy and hold. But then, snap judgements are often signs of a basher.
wow - I thought there was something to your posting until I read this - typical of bashers to respond to something reasonable with an insult. Glad you exposed yourself for who you really are. MOre than me can read our posts and decide for themselves - I have a solid posting history, and anyone can go to the MNK board and ask about me - or just look at the threads attached to my posting history there.
Please don't delete your insult - I would LOVE for all on the GTAT board and others to read what you have said.
yes - there are other explanatins - but be fair - shorts and MMs DO manipulate stocks. I watch it for over 2 years in QCOR, and even now that it is merged with MNK and has been on a nice run the last week, I still am watching to see for when the shorts step in again. For now, they are letting buying pressure run its course - and low volume days were legend on the QCOR board for short manipulation.
Folks just had to/have to have a long run few and an understanding of the bigger picture, not just focus on a day a week or even a quarter.