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Questcor Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (QCOR) Message Board

nyjohnnygray 582 posts  |  Last Activity: 8 hours ago Member since: Mar 4, 2014
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  • Just curious - sometimes they don't get called. That happened to me with TWTR after the previous (successful) ER. The next Monday, shares started heading lower, then stabilized and stayed strong until the recent catastrophic ER.

    Not sure it is a tell or not - but trying to sample. Email me please if you don't wish to tell the board.

  • nyjohnnygray nyjohnnygray May 2, 2015 12:22 PM Flag

    I said between the last 2Qs, so somewhere in the 1.68 to 1.84 range, which would be a best of analyst estimates. Based on previous guesses by the service, mid 1.70s or higher most likely. But it is an educated guess based on someone else's work, and the pattern that MNK usually beats the estimate by.

    Again - guidance is most important, as well as sales and profit trends in specific areas of the company (e.g. Are Acthar gel sales and revenues growing as expected.?)

  • Reply to

    OT G I L D

    by nyjohnnygray Apr 29, 2015 8:06 AM
    nyjohnnygray nyjohnnygray May 2, 2015 7:08 AM Flag

    I decided to buy some after ER - it is likely the stock could retrace past my buy point, so I may put in a stop. Still - sometimes a stock wanders a few days before beginning its ascent, and I probably don't want to trade in and out. I bought this as a value and growth play to hold for a year minimum. Clearly, if they make another smart acquisition, they could have growth beyond 2017. And as with QCOR and MNK, a surprise announcement, especially a smart acquisition, could create a surge in value. The share price has been forming a base since August - I would not be surprised to see a breakout start anytime between now and next ER. Bullrunbullrun felt there would be a pop in that time frame - but it is could also be a daily steady climb as we saw in MNK late last summer or mid Jan - March this year.

    As someone said on another board, maybe they should merge with MNK and base the new company in Ireland. If they bought MNK now, they would have to spend 180-200, but they would get an instant boost from Acthar gel and from Offirmev, and the Acthar gel revenue stream would be further protected. They would also get Bailey, Trudeau, and other QCOR/ MNK management who would create a dream team when combined with GLD's stellar management. And they would get tax inversion. I don't think MNK fits the profile of GILD's expertise and marketing area in pharma, but in buying MNK, they would acquire new expertise along with the Acthar revenue stream, and new areas to expand.

    Hey - maybe even Biovectra would come in handy.

    They could take two letters from each symbol and call it MILK

    Got MILK?

  • Reply to

    OT BRK

    by srikantmarakani May 2, 2015 12:16 AM
    nyjohnnygray nyjohnnygray May 2, 2015 6:51 AM Flag

    So - is book value definitely down to 1.2? That would make BRK a buy for the LT for certain, whether or not a breakout. I noticed on the chart BRK probably was at or near a base. The question is will these results push it up to its previous high and cause it to base there. And since BRK is greatly subject to market forces, how the market goes will affect price if one is trying for LT gains.

    Again - did book value reset at 1.2 after this ER is taken into account? I don't know where to find the updated book value.

  • nyjohnnygray nyjohnnygray May 2, 2015 6:47 AM Flag

    Based on a service I have access to, I think Mike's assessment based on Acthar Is likely to prove a bellwether of ER eps and we will have an eps somewhere between the last 2Qs. Don't take this as certain - I am just basing it on patterns. This service does not mention revenues, but I suspect they will follow from the eps.

    But as we know - much more important is guidance., and no one can know that for certain. We do know that last CC, essentially described the scenario we have seen with QCOR - a flat Q1 (technically Q2 for MNK, which ends its fiscal year on Sept 30) followed by a surging Q2 and Q3.

    Does that scenario play out? And how much near term pressure does it put on share price? I don't know, so I am already in position for Q2 and beyond and trying to keep myself from playing the ST. I tend to do my best with the LT and to lose money trying to play the ST. Buying protective puts is a personal choice that can be wise or not, depending on the scenario. Looking at the chart, one can see technical reasons why the stock price might hit a reversal - but one can also see we may have hit lows. We might stay in a rut for a while. Again - ST is not my strength, so I the plan I have in place was conceived last autumn and added to at 2 points, including this week. I will add again if we had another big drop - it works for me more in the LT to add on dips. Mike's advice about focusing on selling options rather than buying them is wise, and when buying them, to pick expirations farther out (at least past Q2 results) if one intends to buy.

    I do watch big patterns of the manipulators - in Autumn, they attacked the week before and the day of ER. In Feb, the attack came on the day of ER, though gathered steam a few days before. This time we had an attack before, and it is probably over, but there are no guarantees. Check my posts for one describing a possible call buy by a hedgie - read the caveats.

  • Reply to

    Bullish ST sign

    by nyjohnnygray Apr 29, 2015 8:18 PM
    nyjohnnygray nyjohnnygray Apr 30, 2015 10:18 AM Flag

    so far it looks like I either read this wrong, it was a ST tech spec play by a hedge fund, or something changed.

    or the possibility I warned about originally - no way of knowing if this was part of an options' hedge unless the other piece(s) done simultaneously as part of the same order.

    One reason why I hesitate to put these on the board.-

  • nyjohnnygray nyjohnnygray Apr 30, 2015 9:51 AM Flag

    I remember what you had said, and decided to stay away from it.

  • Reply to

    Earnings

    by vaginagrimace Apr 30, 2015 9:04 AM
    nyjohnnygray nyjohnnygray Apr 30, 2015 9:50 AM Flag

    hadn't thought to, but you raise a good point.

    I'm focused on this summer, autumn, and beyond. I think MNK still goes up in those time frames, regardless of ER and outer market.

  • nyjohnnygray by nyjohnnygray Apr 29, 2015 8:18 PM Flag

    Someone had a transaction or 1000 calls at 1:31 PM

    When the transaction started bid/ask was .95/1.20 By time it finished cycling through, bid/ask was 1,25/1,35

    20 seconds later, that order or another had a bid/ask of 1.00/1,30

    Calls transacted between a buying price of 1.20 -1.27

    There were also 450 puts sold or May 1 at 123 and 124 strikes. Option interest at these strikes also seems mostly or all sold puts. and puts at the same strikes were sold at other expirations today as well.

    Caveat - I see these transactions in isolation. They may combine with other transactions from another day for hedging. But to buy calls today at 120 that expire next week ater price hit 115s in the afternoon - not sure how that can be anything but bullish. And the price of the calls went up during the transaction.

    Can't promise I will always post these - I don't want to mess people up in their own thinking. Just reporting data I am seeing. Comments appreciated. I was surprised to see this apparent call buy, which represents about $125k spent on options that expire next Friday.

  • Reply to

    OT G I L D

    by nyjohnnygray Apr 29, 2015 8:06 AM
    nyjohnnygray nyjohnnygray Apr 29, 2015 8:04 PM Flag

    thanks!

  • Reply to

    OT G I L D

    by nyjohnnygray Apr 29, 2015 8:06 AM
    nyjohnnygray nyjohnnygray Apr 29, 2015 1:39 PM Flag

    another point to consider - when I see these transactions, I can never know i the entity doing them has done previous transactions, or example, also bought calls. IF the entity also bought calls, then this would be part of a strangle. It is only bearish if stand alone.

  • Reply to

    OT G I L D

    by nyjohnnygray Apr 29, 2015 8:06 AM
    nyjohnnygray nyjohnnygray Apr 29, 2015 1:01 PM Flag

    forgot to mention - both lots transacted simultaneously, so was a spread.

  • Reply to

    OT G I L D

    by nyjohnnygray Apr 29, 2015 8:06 AM
    nyjohnnygray nyjohnnygray Apr 29, 2015 12:39 PM Flag

    Puts were evidently bought at about 10:44 I wish I had noticed the purchase sooner and followed suit. Debating what to do. Glad I sold calls on the shares I bought.

    92.5 strike May 15 exp Bid/ask .36/.56 3600 puts(1 lot) transacted at .50

    96 strike June 5 exp Bid/ask 1.32/1.69 3800 puts (1 lot) transacted at 1.52

    Someone spent over 700k on these puts. They likely know something. Then again - someone apparently bought 10,000 TWTR calls at 51.5 yesterday not long before the leak, so big money can be wrong.

  • Reply to

    Acthar in ALS

    by na33mahmed Apr 28, 2015 9:04 PM
    nyjohnnygray nyjohnnygray Apr 29, 2015 12:26 PM Flag

    it says the control group just above - they were fed gelatin as a control.

  • Reply to

    OT G I L D

    by nyjohnnygray Apr 29, 2015 8:06 AM
    nyjohnnygray nyjohnnygray Apr 29, 2015 10:36 AM Flag

    Would appreciate if you would explain "short tail" and "long tail"

    I get the gist - seemed to me, too, that there is good value waiting in this company.

    I started by buying shares and hedging by selling 100 strike calls June expiration

    Debating buying more shares before ER or selling puts that I want to become shares and waiting until after ER to buy rest.

  • nyjohnnygray by nyjohnnygray Apr 29, 2015 8:06 AM Flag

    It has a low PE, is a LT value (and growth) play, I think. Thinking of taking a LT position, debating if I should wait, as this company has seen some hijinks at ER (sound familiar?) and. The IBB may or may not depress it's price further. Perhaps buy 1/2 now and half later. Or simply start selling weekly calls now with the plan to rebuy shares if necessary.

    Any thoughts? I remember Mike saying 3 months ago this would have ST weakness but be good in the LT, and it is on Joel Greenblatt's list, as I mentioned in another post, so it fits his proprietary value criteria.

  • Reply to

    what the - was that just THE move?

    by nyjohnnygray Apr 28, 2015 9:38 AM
    nyjohnnygray nyjohnnygray Apr 28, 2015 8:18 PM Flag

    Oops - I meant selling calls at 350 strike for June (and for May as well. )

  • Reply to

    what the - was that just THE move?

    by nyjohnnygray Apr 28, 2015 9:38 AM
    nyjohnnygray nyjohnnygray Apr 28, 2015 4:08 PM Flag

    When I wrote the post, was at BOD when we hit 113, but not the 112s. Would agree with th rest with a caveat. I noticed last night that a chunk o puts had been sold or the IBB at 350 in June, Haven't checked today. But yesterday's activity in sold puts implies IBB will remain weak for a month. I so, we will have to see how MNK (and all bios) hold up. Maybe, as you say, we simply revisit lows. But I cleared more powder, just in case.

  • Reply to

    OT: TWTR Leak

    by todd_tb66 Apr 28, 2015 3:29 PM
    nyjohnnygray nyjohnnygray Apr 28, 2015 4:04 PM Flag

    get this - someone evidently bought 10,000 May 1st calls at 51,5 strike for 2.47 (ask was at 2.45) before the leak. Someone else sold almost 3k at 1.79 same exp and strike at 1.79 20 minutes later. A number of big plays at that exp strike but those were the 2 biggest.

  • Reply to

    what the - was that just THE move?

    by nyjohnnygray Apr 28, 2015 9:38 AM
    nyjohnnygray nyjohnnygray Apr 28, 2015 10:26 AM Flag

    see - they came back or the gap ill. Gotta hand it to Jonz. He did deliver. Because o sold calls in IBB, am wondering i bios stay flat a month or two. Curious if ER or a new acquisition will change anything in the ST or MNK.

QCOR
93.600.00(0.00%)Aug 14 4:00 PMEDT