I will answer your question. MWE is a buy October 15 approximately. I live by my instinct and experience and spend alot of time watching what goes on with energy- bonds-stock market and such. I do not have a crystal ball but must have common sense. We are in the weakest months for mlp's-the market is at all time highs-oil is in a holding state-and oil has retraced itself from a 44 low to 60. MWE is not a standalone company. Once again it is in the energy complex subject to oil price NG NGL's price and interest rates..If you take the time to listen to last few days presentations you would come away with a positive outlook for future. I have a large position of MWE in my brokerage account but have chosen to have a leap position in my IRA to conserve money. My minimum rule in IRA is 2 cents or more increase each distribution(MWE) does not qualify.For some of those interested I am looking when price retreats at AM RRMS TLLP MMP EQM WES SXLTEP. FYI I think from 2016-2020 or when they get bought out are the golden years for MWE. Really this is my opinion and I am not a market letter and my hope here is that people educate themselves by reading, listening to CC's and presentations. Use your own skills and not OTHERS including me.
Check out Morgan Stanley slides 5/14/ for some overview as of today They are focusing more on refineries presently, negative is drop in rigs for their products. Marv
I own CLMT in my brokerage account for distribution %. They are 2 companies. One a opportunistic San Antonio refiner changeover another a new diesel refiner in Bakken among its new focus refineries and a rollup refined products company with various products for car and truck maintenance hoping to expand internationally. They have a rocky road on coverage. I would not bet the bank on its success pricewise. I agonize on what to buy with my 23% cash for next 4 months. Only deep discounted shares of TEP EQM MMP ETP are presently on my radar. Regards
As someone who spends alot of time watching CNBC I just mute most of the volume and go to bloomberg for real economic news. Most of CNBC is talk to fill up airtime but I watch the tape. Just to give you another view of mlp investing. In a self directed IRA account I bought CNNX due to your post and CS TP of 32. Since 2 analysts downsides TP I expected a low opening so I bought at 18.01 When at 18.50 I sold 20 Sept CC for $1 I then calculated $1 plus 21 cents and $2 should give me in 4 months a total return of 3.21 div 18 or 17.8% for 4 months. If it rapidly goes past 20 then cover it in 2-3 months and perhaps 15% Done 2 or 3 times a year with same money looking for a total return of 25-30%. I look for total return on investments not distribution percentage. Not inconceivable to double money every 3 years. CAGR is very important to me but market timing and long time watching the market and time of year for mlp's you can't buy the experience Regards
I will get more if they increase distribution next quarter I expect a real down period for most starting Monday. I need self control as prices for TEP EQM MMP already are enticing
Just listened to ETE CC which gives me an overview of the mlp market. ETE said looking for some mergers presently. They are equal in capitalization to WMB. Game changers for either one is MWE NGLS/TRGP MMP PAA BUT commodity market is not yet stabilized to do it and prices are not distressed. Of the 3 I was interested in hearing ETE MWE NGLS/TRGP only latter was lukewarm showing in price movement. Have not changed my mind in holding the 5 I spoke of. I now await MWE to pass 70's to return
It appears to me that as 10yr interest rate increases and Yellen talks about stock market high valuation is what is going on today.This added to x div days and profit taking with weaker dollar is on plate. The analyst community has very nice TP's for most mlp's. BUT EPD PAA ETE are slipping as they are listed as core holdings. MWE appears to be in sweet spot of NG in marcellus as it holds around $2.80 going into summer. Oil drawdown higher than expected and positive until end of this month. Sell in May is for me. I just can't get into 25% fast enough. Regards Marv TEGP tomorrow.
Nice to hear from you . Chrx and I have a personal conversation going and welcome some other thoughts. I listened to MWE CC and was very pleasantly surprised that they were in such good shape compared to other midstream mlp's. Mlp's are shifting sentiment to interest rates and stock market reactions. It doesn't bid well for next 3 months IMO. I am 17% cash and don't think it is enough I think Targa group is too invested in NGL and that is what is hurting it. I also feel that ETE group has gone out to deal with NGL by themselves. and don't think personally that they would take out Targa as I did before. Crazy day when MWE is best performing mlp.
TEGP EQGP this week Moved to 17% cash sold EPD CC 6/15 and bought PAA 45 1/17 Hope to get to 20% cash MLP's just appear to be flat for next 3 or more momths
When it comes I am there. Exited my 42.50 1/17 ETP leap today Now if EPD hits 35-36 hasta luego.Took out 1/3 MMP I only give the blow by blow because up till yesterday distributions did not move the needle and x div may mean something this week
As the distribution announcements are just about complete I once again bring to your notice ETE TRGP EQM TEP examples of just few with CAGR numbers that warrant attention. My question only remains what to have going into June only remains. I bought more TEP EQM and exited NGL GP of TEP has to be on the radar. I go with a concentration of the following ETE TRGP EQM TEP/TEGP MMP I exit EPD ETP SMLP and hold leaps of MWE when they go to 2 cents I am back. No Need to have comments Marv
You bring up interesting point about operating cash flow. However, one of the tenants of mlp investing used to be that they went into the market on frequents occasions throughout the years to fund new pipeline or other projects to increase their distributions. Why should you not look favorably on many growing mlp's that are getting dropdowns or funding new projects
I only wish that these projects move the needle for total company. But the sum of total works. The present time shows for the most part that distributions announcements have not moved the mlp prices except for a couple like EQM and held MWE at a decent price.This coming week we have the majority of x div days so choppy pricing expected
To all those following discussion on TRGP and NGLS . My guy at CS J. Edwards writes a commentary and lowers NGLS TP by $2 and raises TRGP to 125 TP. All those with Schwab accounts can read his work via research-CS-reports right side of column.
When I write a fair guidance of the past and present situation it reflex's present day and past situation. It behooves all present to look as to what they said. This is not a market letter but my commentary on certain mlp's I follow. Fair in abstract means a honest assessment of the facts and not biased in companies favor/
For the record I haven't a clue when it will be sold and if it will be sold. I sold my crystal ball in November. I remain saying that the most viable mlp's for sale are Mwe MMp and Targa by either KMI ETE WMB ENB
Please present this case 7% yield and if it goes up 5 points from its 2 year low then you have a 17% total return.. I have ETP calls 42.50 jan 17 a steal