I bought HCLP and sold the CC 70's then as it passed I resold the CC 75's 1/15 I expect when Dec 20 comes to make evaluation purely on a percentage when to take profit. I am trying to stay within 6 mlp's . They are way subject to swings for my likes.. I went back and exited SMLP today. I have followed a number of stocks where insiders sell and market hits them It takes a while for them to come back. By the way the new technology for fracking is using more sand in each new well by alot. HCLP is fine but I choose to buy more of ETE TRGP MWE at present time
Some favorite mlp's got hammered today on not great volume. Why the doubting cousins ask.? Pick any you want # 1. Oil is oversupplied in Gulf Region and price going down therefore energy oil stocks down therefore mlp stocks going down #2 Profit taking of those who have run up as dow has been down last 4 days # 3 -10 year treasury has gone from 2.48 % to 2.62% or so in just a few days causing interest sensitive stocks as mlp's to sell off. # Slowdown of UK China Japan Scotland vote oil still flowing from Iraq and Libya Pound Sterling lower,yen devalued all or part of above Or 6 weeks doldrums. Mmmmmmmm It is a stock market and mlp's are stocks
I have given my style of mlp investing on many occasions. After 17 years of investing I changed my entire focus in my self directed IRA account to CAGR and 2 cents or more quarterly distribution increase. You can say this is momentum playing . I say that those mlp's that are in the forefront of the revolution I named above are the ones I choose to own today . The numbers I said starts from Jan 2014 to Dec 2016. It is basically 1/3 TOTAL return each year compounded for 3 years. When I talked about OILT only Hach reacted. Look at price today (it is a split price) and way ahead of itself. When ETE said they would buy back 1 B of stock plus Susser ETP JV LNG buying RGP units etc etc it was not rocket science. When EQM gives guidance of 3 cents increase per quarter and dropdowns galore it is not rocket science. When TRGP and NGLS go to export and Badlands of ND and massive capex it is also not rocket science. MWE is on edge and will probably blossom end of next year. Hach has been on target all the years on price. I said don't marry some mlp's which you and many do because of % distribution. I say total return.. I also hold only 8 mlp's and they are in decreasing dollar value ETE OILT TRGP MMP EQM MWE HCLP SMLP . The last 2 I will be out in Dec. Beware this is only my focus. EMES SLCA and a host of smaller newer mlp's could be better and this is a self directed account. Money DO NOT POST . IV group is clueless except for Passand-Factoids-you and Arb. Mickey and a couple others are good but I have posted and mostly ignored. On this dissertation please DO NOT POst Marv
Five years from now is too much future for me. The great revolution that I have seen for the mlp group started to be recognized in approx 2009. If not for the meltdown in 2009 that overshadowed the natural course of events NG would have been more prevalent. However, the very low interest rates and planning took about 3 years,( the model was ETP) so 2013 it was in full bloom. Then NGLS LNG appeared in 2013. The export of NG LGLS Condensate in 2014. In my opinion the sweet spot or my era of opportunity for exceptional rewards is 2014 to 2016. Why, it is not for recognition but the potential realization by street and country of the revolution and low interest rates That makes bond and equity interest rates most attractive along with planning.My feeling and projection is with the right mix of mlp stocks you can see a double in these 3 years. Only the likes of AliBaba google apple Baidu priceline giliad regeneron etc in the market matches our mlp opportunity. So
Chrx I have not changed my focus on my magnificent 6. I added some Hclp and sold 75's 1/15 . I also just bought some Smlp. I am adding to the six only on retreats. This period of next 6 weeks always spooks me. The positive is the KMI rollup which appears to have helped hold MWE ETE EQM TRGP. MWE appears to be becoming a second EPD selling on prospects above immediate fundamentals
At a 2 cents a quarter increase in distribution last 4 quarters and last at 0.52 cents it is not to bad. Add 2 billion of dropdowns or 300-500M each year and 20% cagr with Mountaineer and loop to MWE it is a good second tier possibility. Marv
Those interested in update on MWE and Hopedale -sherwood complex as SMLP supplies NG and NGLS to go in service 3rd quarter 2014. slides on pg 12 I think is a good looksee
AR midstream is the IPO to be. It may be a buy when it comes out. Until then please watch alerianmlp.com holdings to follow when KMP and EPB are being sold. Since 8/29 when I started following it KMP10.77% to 10.72% EPB 2.82% to 2.81% They will sell and some of money will end up in MWE. We are talking alot of money moving around
I for one would not count on that happening. I would suggest you at least having a thought process that if it comes to past in next 5 years that you think of sending it to your grandchildren in form of UGMA and disperse it to other various parties. You /a spouse can send $26000 of MWE stock each year. They will not get stepped up basis. MWE and Targa family . Fortunately or unfortunately are the right size and command right assets for the likes of KMI ETE WMB. Just commenting on thought process.
Money ETP traded 1.8M so I am not looking at amlp when I say some fund started move of leaving KMP. What I think will happen is not only will there be movement in mlp group but I think there will be a overbought situation with mlp's especially smaller capatized mlp prices going past their intrinsic value.
Marklibera above makes an interesting comment as of today KMP 10+ EPB 2+ of AMLP fund still to be moved somewhere Over 1B dollars
More immediate question. Why is EMES and SLCA performing better that HCLP. CS gave it a 80 TP so I bought some HCLP and sold Jan 1/15 CC, I am a % person and figure 18% for 5 months was worth the trouble.
Money Far be it for me to explain the stock market to you. DPM has done a mediocre job as far Price appreciation these last 4 years. You can wed it if you want as those have wedded GEL PAA ETP WPZ. I ask the very basic question what do you want from a stock and do you care if stock goes up less than another with the same risk association. I happen to have sold ETP at 62 probably about 8 years ago. Today a good stock foward but dead in water for years.But threw off /68 cents for 4 years I only ask that you take whatever stock you love and then do a 5 year chart comparison with another choice.I probably have more MWE than majority of small investors. I would have been flat the last 2 years if I didn't buy 1/16 calls at 50 55 60 65.But 5-7-10% CAGR doesn't make it outstanding these last 2 years. You and others have a right to choose what you for whatever reason. I only ask that you don't snub those who choose EMES EQM TRGP ETE and those who are ahead of curve/ There is something as risk reward in stock market. This is enough from me for awhile Marv
The bold type was only too lazy and mishit. I am a stock market person. Doing this for 50 years. The way mlp' work is the ceo gives guidance about Feb then each quarter to see if he is correct and makes a few adjustments. The analysts model what he gives them and sets paramaters as to DCF Distributions ,if new equity needed and such. The houses that have commercial stakes in mlp's do analyst days and others positive things to get their investment banking business. The lazy houses have analysts that do not upgrade TP, which in old days was 12 to 18 months. The good houses have the best analyst teams and do weekly upgrades and usually change the perfomance RANKINGS weekly. fSome have stars of month picks. They move the market for the majority of investors inhouse and funds etc. The stock market daily works energy stocks dow s&p and effects price seasonally and daily. So you can have EMES SLCA doing better than HCLP even though the stats are the same. I watch the market and have not the accounting skill or temperment to buy early and hold on possiblities. As far as price everything is percentage. I made 4 mistakes this year not holding EMES in 40's same HCLP Selling 1/2 TRGP and not buying EQM when it dropped to 83. I truly appreciate your posts . I unfortunately have been a market person too long