For all those who took my advice -sell in May and go away I applaud you. I personally am in the camp do as I say not as I do. MMP is my 3rd largest holding and my second most secure after ETE. One would think that because MMP is in the gasoline and diesel pipeline business ,storage of oil and other refine product business that they would have escaped the meltdown But they went into an expansion of oil pipelines last few years and the weak minded public and analysts associated them with oil. It did not help their 1st quarter results were less than spectacular While second quarter improved and 10% guidance for year end has changed their focus somewhat. So if you have a 5-10 % paper loss in MMP you are ahead of the pack presently. I still see them as the best buyout candidate in Mlp group. It may take 2 years but KMI and ETE will do it. ETE has Sunoco and Sun which are in the gasoline retail business and if they don't affect the refiners they fit in perfectly with MMP. MMP is sitting OK in this meltdown ala 2000 2008 and such, Stay with it
Hach thanks for your analysis once again. My view is a market view. It appears to me that MWE got stuck in the commodity shake out. Oil will no longer be in 80-90 range and a glut of ethane propane NGLS presently. Also the drillers who are and funding the massive buildout are retrenching their capex and perhaps some are going to have a long journey to survive. They also did not hook up with a NG exporter where the extra NG must go starting next 4 years. There has to be a new evaluation of mlp's. The ETE WMB is massive and if consumeated ETE will control 50% of NG in newest markets. I feel somewhat bad about events but the next 5 years there will be new players. NGLS will be next after the ETE WMB MWE MPLX mergers especially if WMB doesn't go to ETE. I hope you consider for the future ETE MMP EQM and a few drop down plays as WES. MLP's in the future are in the hands of the money funds and players T is a new era for mlp's NG LNG Export and Dropdowns. I don;t think MMP NGLS will survive independently My sleeper is SUN The team has moved to IV Regards Marv
The situation with all mlp's now is tenuous . Most all oil related mlp's are selling off even though they are 90's fixed fee. The midstream space of which MWE is because of drillers commodity exsposure are also being chopped.When you look at the 2 conglomerate mlp's KMI and EPD they have parts that are exposed to commodity pricing and they are the most secure because of capitalization. The pure NG mlp pipelines who one would think are immune to this all and NG 2.90 approx have made expansion plans in regard to oil and unwhitingly fallen into the oil drop in price trap. The mlp's that have given CAGR guidance of 10% and over are also selling at yearly lows. So it is not what MWE WMB is worth today as a stand alone company. They would also be tanking along with the rest if not for buyout offers. Having said that either you stick by some very ugly times the next few months and accept the revolution taking place in mlp's associtaed with oil The only thing stopping MWE from 60 is the buyout offer. In conclusion the price of MWE is what people will pay for it today and the only thing going on is MPLX MWE and WMB ETE. CAGR apparently doesn't matter along with what is going on with each company 2016-17 etc There is no stomach for energy stocks now. There is no saving MWE because of NGLS OIL propane ethane butane pricing due to oversupply. Can MWE make it alone on just taking out ethane or Methane from dry gas . I don't know. If you don't like MWE now trade it for ETE. I along with all am not a happy camper by the mess oil pricing has made
Take the stock sell Nov 72.5 calls . Get .92 plus 3+dollars plus almost $3 plus maybe 1-2 or wait May lose 3+ if goes over 72.5 and called away
Your comments are right but not for the obvious.With MWE being taken out and wmb (then WPZ thereafter) there are fewer mlp's for the money to go too. Besides the usual dropdown candidates 2 of the major subsection mlp's will be persona non grata. oil and midstream. I expect soon the sectors that will be on radar are NG and associated LNG meaning exports of LNG Propane Ethane
My take is that there are Billions of dropdowns now for the combo and a great CAGR for at least 1 and 1/.2 years Obviously, the NGLS market going forward stinks and this is Semple's way of facing it. The thought is that drillers will go to dry gas and the volumes for ethane propane etc will not be there, I always said buy leaps and the strategy if you have money is to take stock and get almost 1 dollar the 3+ cash and sell the Nov 70's. By Nov you will see what is going on with oil.
Did the fat lady sing yet? Now the problem is where does the MWE money go to? It leaves only 1 or 2 left. WMB to ETE and NGLS to KMI. Short term saved . Long term fewer players and mirrors oil company consolidation in mlp industry. Coming on KMP to KMI it shows that you the small investor are just in it for the ride. Too much money via the funds have made this a M and A garden. To be continued. Let's hear it from the flag wavers.
I am a little late in answering the original question but I will offer some reply. I have 1/4 of your 2 positions in MMP and EPD The problem as I see it is that while MMP really is in refined products which should be doing well as oil prices drop there is a contagion going on as oil pricing has affected everything. They are in oil storage that took its licks as there was nowhere to put it and their 2 or 3 oil delivery pipes recently constructed associated with oil Oil has infected the entire mlp group. The ferc 4% and the 15% for rest of year is not able to counterbalance the oil; infestation. However they are one of the 3 best manged mlp's.
When did I become your cramer?. This my one and only remark until October 15 2015 ETE ETE ETE MMP MMP MMP EQM EQM EQM SUN SUN SUN WES WES WES Should cover all the bases
Sell in May and go away. Buy October 15 2015 Buy 1/17 leaps to conserve money, Go into 20% cash. Don't listen to me . Blame the basanova