After reading ,listening to the gyrations of last 4 months of conjecture those who follow the mlp market should have made some interesting individual assumptions. I for one now say #1 storage of excess oil in Cushing and Gulf region will approximate 90-100% in next 3-4 weeks not reached in almost last 10 years #2 NG will after a massive cold winter have in storage more than in last 10 years. The refiners strike has hit west coast mostly and maintenance schedules for winter have caused an additional buildup of oil. The change into summer blends of gasoline is 4-6 weeks away. Most important to me is we have 6-7 weeks before 2nd quarter distribution announcements/ I have dipped my foot into WES WMB and saw EPD PAA ETP sands continue the falling knife syndrome. Only ETE MWE is showing relative strength. I wish I could forecast bottom prices this cycle for TEP WES WMB but NG will flounder under $3 for foreseeable future. I see no advantage to buying now with just under 20% cash. The traders are in charge of oil futures now for next 4 weeks. Those expecting export of oil to go positive soon with this administration needs to go to a shrink ASAP.
Ordinarily i don't comment on this board about politics but when fools make statements I have to respond. When did Israel get the US into Iraq war. My history was Bush one after Kuwait went ablaze went to war and Bush 2 said weapons of mass destruction gave us Iraq #2. Morons like you who want to rewrite history ala POS in WH are suspect always/
Hach With storage for 53M barrels of oil do you think it will be a minor game changer. I wonder how many contracts are renegotiated fro Jan to June 2015
Breaking news Lithuania buys LNG from Cheniere as of 2016 . NG is going to europe and breaking stangle hold by Russia. If only EPD would be investor friendly I would change my mind PS I have a load of it and hope to cut in 1/2 when it hits 37+ Enough said tonite
SEMG just dropped down to RRMS something this week prompting CHRX perhaps to take a look at it. Semg reported very good earnings recently. I looked at RRMS when they had a secondary and bought some at premarket They placed about 45 for secondary. What I didn't like was the recent dropdown was oil pipe to Cushing where storage of oil is about to run out in next 4 weeks. Another rule for mlp investing is if stock price drops $3 at secondary or does not drop equal to more stock outstanding percentage I am suspect. If secondary adds 5 % to float it should go down about 5%. Secondaries must be looked at more suspect especial;ly during these times
As always a very great overview of MWE position. I am a market person Not all stock market participants have an affinity for individual companies. Many people like myself are governed by fundamentals. Mlp's have fundamentals noted by all involved in this group these many years. I have endlessly noted that major mlp's like PAA EPD ETP have periods where they built infrastructure and their price has been dormant for 3-4 years. At present time unless I have been asleep these last 6 years CAGR Coverage of distributions and potential growth in DCF (RRR?) are what mlp's are about. Therefore I would appreciate YOU ARB MONEY CHRX RuBY LIZA giving me their evaluation of MWE vs ETE ETP TRGP WES EQM TEP PSXP MMP for only next 2 years on price.Thanks
Arb I looked at distribution guidance and average for year is 0.925 per quarter. Looks like a slight increase over 1 penny Yes?
Nigeria makes Chicago and Il small pickens for being corrupt. The oil group in Nigeria is similar to the Putin circle in Russia. They haven't put a dime into getting ride of the ISIS type of rebel. With the oil money they make they could have a Army of 100,00 British or other merceneries,but afraid they would lead a coup after finishing the job. The people are incredibly poor and the oil money with Shell's help goes to whoever has the sphere of influence namely 1 guy and family. Note Montiva and other refineries on strike are serviced by S.A. oil I am crying about it. Lastly with refineries closing less oil being refined and more inventory build up and lower oil prices. Price of oil lower as today is the mlp problem
I have tried these last few months to present my case for ETE to you. Those who know fundamentals would have seen a great buy. 1B shares moved it from 42 to low 50's. But you have your own dynamics of buying. I am serious about CAGR buying. The kicker for TRGP is one day ETE or WMB or KMI will want an export facility and they are right behind EPD plus Bakken. The case for NG really is wet gas and dry gas. If you have too much wet then the NGL's are commodity reliant and taking the halo hit. SXL and SUN and under Warren Stacey can't help but prosper. SXL has been my most consistant winner in mlp space for better than 10 years. Regards to Pa and weather.
Just finished the WES 4th quarter call. It appears to be a model for the NG mlp.They appear to be good for next quarter and pushing out to 16 anything that would have been added on this year They and others are to be talking early March for year analysis forward
Chrx The reason I am here is because I have a legitimate discource with you,occasionally money arb hach and 1 or two others. The IV board is focused on e&p-endless Ki tax ? and minutia.. Only a few really have anything to say. However I will pick you up there if everything else fails. My commentary doesn't suite the players there. But Passandshoot material is invaluable
You know I tried to hide with NG mlp's NG price short term futures only moved Friday Therefore NG pipeline mlp's have not reacted positively until CC's and guidance.It appears price of mlp's for last week reacted to cc's of those I follow as WES WMB and ETE . CS has given EQM a 102 TP. So I expect to be buying EQM at this level for future. The gp of WES ,WGP was raised.Still consolidating holdings and am stymied by EPD low price. Hanging in with ETE TRGP MMP EQM as my core. I follow the CAGR school of mlp investing in self directed IRA. Awaiting MWE story with WTI appears to holding at low 50 so far.
As of Feb 13 storage 5 Billion cf over 5 year average. So even after this draw down this week there will be plenty of NG in storage.The price moved up slightly today I don't see NG pipes other than special situation ETE moving north. Hope dems in NE love paying up because of NINBY l focus on pipes.
BofA analyst has report on HCLP read it on IV board if possible. If what you say is true about NG futures WES EQM ETPand such do not reflect it in their price. The oil fluctuations have more to do with mlp pricing now. EPD can't buy a price up. Perhaps the CS conference along with a oil hold will hold potential slide to group. I remind you of the traditional 5-6 weeks decline in 90 day cycle after distribution in strongest 1/4. Selection and price target for purchase after today end of option trading today
I have written a few times that I didn't get the NG market and don't think it works like oil market therefore mlp's. We have a massive cold spell across the south and the NE has been under siege for 1 month. There must be so much NG around that the supply is there. But since mlp's are not drillers the pipes should be hauling a ton of it. BUT it is not reflective of price of mlp's mainly in NG business. CHRX please note that ETE approved a 2Billion buyback of stock. That to me is the sleeper for ETE. Only WMB appears to be beneficiary of NG movement so far