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Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. Message Board

nymarv10956 307 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 17, 2015 10:10 AM Member since: Apr 18, 2007
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  • Reply to

    Opnion of nymar

    by fountain123_45 Jul 17, 2015 8:44 AM
    nymarv10956 nymarv10956 Jul 17, 2015 10:10 AM Flag

    The situation with all mlp's now is tenuous . Most all oil related mlp's are selling off even though they are 90's fixed fee. The midstream space of which MWE is because of drillers commodity exsposure are also being chopped.When you look at the 2 conglomerate mlp's KMI and EPD they have parts that are exposed to commodity pricing and they are the most secure because of capitalization. The pure NG mlp pipelines who one would think are immune to this all and NG 2.90 approx have made expansion plans in regard to oil and unwhitingly fallen into the oil drop in price trap. The mlp's that have given CAGR guidance of 10% and over are also selling at yearly lows. So it is not what MWE WMB is worth today as a stand alone company. They would also be tanking along with the rest if not for buyout offers. Having said that either you stick by some very ugly times the next few months and accept the revolution taking place in mlp's associtaed with oil The only thing stopping MWE from 60 is the buyout offer. In conclusion the price of MWE is what people will pay for it today and the only thing going on is MPLX MWE and WMB ETE. CAGR apparently doesn't matter along with what is going on with each company 2016-17 etc There is no stomach for energy stocks now. There is no saving MWE because of NGLS OIL propane ethane butane pricing due to oversupply. Can MWE make it alone on just taking out ethane or Methane from dry gas . I don't know. If you don't like MWE now trade it for ETE. I along with all am not a happy camper by the mess oil pricing has made

  • Reply to

    Arbitrage off. Speculation of a a new suitor?

    by brianchr2 Jul 14, 2015 11:04 AM
    nymarv10956 nymarv10956 Jul 14, 2015 5:30 PM Flag

    Take the stock sell Nov 72.5 calls . Get .92 plus 3+dollars plus almost $3 plus maybe 1-2 or wait May lose 3+ if goes over 72.5 and called away

  • Reply to

    Arbitrage off. Speculation of a a new suitor?

    by brianchr2 Jul 14, 2015 11:04 AM
    nymarv10956 nymarv10956 Jul 14, 2015 12:44 PM Flag

    A #2 fractionator and #1 fractionator dosn't go. EPD can only buy the likes of CLMT MMLP MMP

  • nymarv10956 nymarv10956 Jul 14, 2015 12:41 PM Flag

    Go play in some heavy traffic

  • Reply to

    mplx sell off

    by harehau Jul 14, 2015 10:09 AM
    nymarv10956 nymarv10956 Jul 14, 2015 12:40 PM Flag

    You do not have my vote for epd or paa. I just don't get 5 or 6 % CAGR As far as PSXP a quarter late. Yes OKE NGLS.

  • Reply to

    mplx sell off

    by harehau Jul 14, 2015 10:09 AM
    nymarv10956 nymarv10956 Jul 14, 2015 10:20 AM Flag

    Your comments are right but not for the obvious.With MWE being taken out and wmb (then WPZ thereafter) there are fewer mlp's for the money to go too. Besides the usual dropdown candidates 2 of the major subsection mlp's will be persona non grata. oil and midstream. I expect soon the sectors that will be on radar are NG and associated LNG meaning exports of LNG Propane Ethane

  • nymarv10956 by nymarv10956 Jul 13, 2015 12:58 PM Flag

    Price of MPLX dropping as the arbs are at work selling MPLX and buying MWE. MPLX is thinly traded so severe drop in price. Wait till dust settles

  • Reply to

    Congrats to longs

    by dprofiteer Jul 13, 2015 7:18 AM
    nymarv10956 nymarv10956 Jul 13, 2015 10:37 AM Flag

    Additionally interest rates for 10 year 2.45% and Oil retreating. Mid stream mlp's are being squeezed

  • Reply to

    Congrats to longs

    by dprofiteer Jul 13, 2015 7:18 AM
    nymarv10956 nymarv10956 Jul 13, 2015 9:46 AM Flag

    My take is that there are Billions of dropdowns now for the combo and a great CAGR for at least 1 and 1/.2 years Obviously, the NGLS market going forward stinks and this is Semple's way of facing it. The thought is that drillers will go to dry gas and the volumes for ethane propane etc will not be there, I always said buy leaps and the strategy if you have money is to take stock and get almost 1 dollar the 3+ cash and sell the Nov 70's. By Nov you will see what is going on with oil.

  • Reply to

    Congrats to longs

    by dprofiteer Jul 13, 2015 7:18 AM
    nymarv10956 nymarv10956 Jul 13, 2015 8:56 AM Flag

    Listen in 4 minutes. The shorts will suffer

  • Reply to

    Congrats to longs

    by dprofiteer Jul 13, 2015 7:18 AM
    nymarv10956 nymarv10956 Jul 13, 2015 8:22 AM Flag

    Did the fat lady sing yet? Now the problem is where does the MWE money go to? It leaves only 1 or 2 left. WMB to ETE and NGLS to KMI. Short term saved . Long term fewer players and mirrors oil company consolidation in mlp industry. Coming on KMP to KMI it shows that you the small investor are just in it for the ride. Too much money via the funds have made this a M and A garden. To be continued. Let's hear it from the flag wavers.

  • Reply to

    Strange Action

    by skinz4q May 6, 2015 10:41 AM
    nymarv10956 nymarv10956 Jul 11, 2015 7:01 PM Flag

    I am a little late in answering the original question but I will offer some reply. I have 1/4 of your 2 positions in MMP and EPD The problem as I see it is that while MMP really is in refined products which should be doing well as oil prices drop there is a contagion going on as oil pricing has affected everything. They are in oil storage that took its licks as there was nowhere to put it and their 2 or 3 oil delivery pipes recently constructed associated with oil Oil has infected the entire mlp group. The ferc 4% and the 15% for rest of year is not able to counterbalance the oil; infestation. However they are one of the 3 best manged mlp's.

  • Reply to

    money reply solamente

    by nymarv10956 Jun 20, 2015 9:43 PM
    nymarv10956 nymarv10956 Jul 3, 2015 11:35 AM Flag

    When did I become your cramer?. This my one and only remark until October 15 2015 ETE ETE ETE MMP MMP MMP EQM EQM EQM SUN SUN SUN WES WES WES Should cover all the bases

  • Reply to

    money reply solamente

    by nymarv10956 Jun 20, 2015 9:43 PM
    nymarv10956 nymarv10956 Jun 30, 2015 11:34 PM Flag

    Sell in May and go away. Buy October 15 2015 Buy 1/17 leaps to conserve money, Go into 20% cash. Don't listen to me . Blame the basanova

  • Reply to

    Has Something Changed @ MWE?

    by gus_grabowski May 22, 2015 1:35 PM
    nymarv10956 nymarv10956 May 23, 2015 3:44 PM Flag

    I will answer your question. MWE is a buy October 15 approximately. I live by my instinct and experience and spend alot of time watching what goes on with energy- bonds-stock market and such. I do not have a crystal ball but must have common sense. We are in the weakest months for mlp's-the market is at all time highs-oil is in a holding state-and oil has retraced itself from a 44 low to 60. MWE is not a standalone company. Once again it is in the energy complex subject to oil price NG NGL's price and interest rates..If you take the time to listen to last few days presentations you would come away with a positive outlook for future. I have a large position of MWE in my brokerage account but have chosen to have a leap position in my IRA to conserve money. My minimum rule in IRA is 2 cents or more increase each distribution(MWE) does not qualify.For some of those interested I am looking when price retreats at AM RRMS TLLP MMP EQM WES SXLTEP. FYI I think from 2016-2020 or when they get bought out are the golden years for MWE. Really this is my opinion and I am not a market letter and my hope here is that people educate themselves by reading, listening to CC's and presentations. Use your own skills and not OTHERS including me.

  • Reply to

    Present and near term outlook

    by nymarv10956 May 14, 2015 12:53 PM
    nymarv10956 nymarv10956 May 15, 2015 10:50 PM Flag

    Check out Morgan Stanley slides 5/14/ for some overview as of today They are focusing more on refineries presently, negative is drop in rigs for their products. Marv

  • Reply to

    Present and near term outlook

    by nymarv10956 May 14, 2015 12:53 PM
    nymarv10956 nymarv10956 May 15, 2015 4:36 PM Flag

    I own CLMT in my brokerage account for distribution %. They are 2 companies. One a opportunistic San Antonio refiner changeover another a new diesel refiner in Bakken among its new focus refineries and a rollup refined products company with various products for car and truck maintenance hoping to expand internationally. They have a rocky road on coverage. I would not bet the bank on its success pricewise. I agonize on what to buy with my 23% cash for next 4 months. Only deep discounted shares of TEP EQM MMP ETP are presently on my radar. Regards

  • Reply to

    My 2 cents

    by nymarv10956 May 5, 2015 12:33 PM
    nymarv10956 nymarv10956 May 13, 2015 7:46 AM Flag

    As of today take WMB out of the buying market

  • Reply to

    My 2 cents

    by nymarv10956 May 5, 2015 12:33 PM
    nymarv10956 nymarv10956 May 13, 2015 7:45 AM Flag

    WMB buys WPZ

  • Reply to

    CNNX reports

    by chrxind May 11, 2015 8:38 AM
    nymarv10956 nymarv10956 May 13, 2015 2:34 AM Flag

    As someone who spends alot of time watching CNBC I just mute most of the volume and go to bloomberg for real economic news. Most of CNBC is talk to fill up airtime but I watch the tape. Just to give you another view of mlp investing. In a self directed IRA account I bought CNNX due to your post and CS TP of 32. Since 2 analysts downsides TP I expected a low opening so I bought at 18.01 When at 18.50 I sold 20 Sept CC for $1 I then calculated $1 plus 21 cents and $2 should give me in 4 months a total return of 3.21 div 18 or 17.8% for 4 months. If it rapidly goes past 20 then cover it in 2-3 months and perhaps 15% Done 2 or 3 times a year with same money looking for a total return of 25-30%. I look for total return on investments not distribution percentage. Not inconceivable to double money every 3 years. CAGR is very important to me but market timing and long time watching the market and time of year for mlp's you can't buy the experience Regards

ETP
52.45+0.70(+1.35%)2:06 PMEDT