Since I have been an exponent that stocks follow analysts readings these last few years, it is at this time we should evaluate analysts if they mean anything in a selloff or should you gain any comfort in what they say.GS has dropped MWE to 78 TP and TRGP to a 140,s approx. I have followed CS first with Siegel and now with Edwards these last 6-7 years. In good stable times they have models that work. In bad and selloff times they are reactive and useless. Arb who one should read what he says through CC and guidance pronouncements looks at individual mlp's and their basics. Unfortuneately, analysts have major impacts on general public and funds. They should be guides but the true view of companies is what they publish-cc's-guidance. Markets give public and fund sentiment but not the intrinsic value of company. Today oil futures rule mlp's. We have to wait for more stable times and pick the best of the lot now. Pretty obvious to some not all.
You are right I mixed up my thoughts wtih WES. As far as EQM I had to bail at 89 for the wrong reason. Low 80's appears to be a good toe in. Arb you are on target once again. Just look at today,s rebound of mlp's and MWE least pricewise up. I remember a very smart guy saying to me. THE GOOD STOCKS will rebound the fastest after a industry selloff. I still hold to my premis for MWE leaps 15 16. Funny that I will end up with epd from oilt exchange. Whatever happened to epd owing etp about 300m in court settlement? Where are the flag wavers?
Eqm is attached to oil. What they have working for them is alot of dropdowns from eqt. The #$%$ is that they are really attached to APC who has been rumored to be sold sometime and what that would do is beyond me. At same time to continue drilling in these times eqm will need money. I right as this time like wes more. Some is going into Alerian fund this 12/19 PM. They have not collapsed as others. As far as ETE they are tuned to etp really which is a major NG player. As soon as get ferc approval in first quarter 0f 15 it will come alive I think
I read the most interesting take on oil on IV board from a COXE person. SA wants to give Russia a heads up for supporting Syria and Iran. Since Russia refused then it stuck it to them. End of year selling for tax loss and removal of high percentage of energy by funds appear to be happening. As I write only mlp I follow that is down is MMP on 800 thousand at 1 PM after being recommended by a host of different analysts last 7 days. My take about 3 weeks ago remains. Less oil pipes-more NG focus along with export-those giving positive guidance in Dec Jan-dollar cost averaging down- Perhaps too much of an optimist for these times.
Very informative but it will have to last out another year. They are down about 40% as PXD and others even being a very low cost producer. They used to be valued on reserves now I don't know . The whole group with oil the focus is being killed although NG is good.but NGL's almost at give away prices.
I won't go into each of the 8 you mentioned but to say least vulnerable in these present times MMP because of gasoline diesel and oil storage -ete mostly NG transportation-WMB except for WPZ mostly NG transportation- Most vulnerable-OKE/OKS Bakken giving them most income-KMI because a large percentage of KMP oil and co2 PAGP oil transport and storage. These are general views and not to be recommendations The group a sub group of energy can't stand alone independent of oil being slaughtered
I only add along with Gruber's adding that Americans are stupid for being suckered into the Obamacare this fact that interest rates for student loans can't be reduced because 8 BILLION DOLLARS go to pay off OBAMACARE Subsidies. So students after college are paying off 1/4 of their loan interest to the DEMOCRATIC sponsored OBAMCARE aren't you happy to fund this this way
I am not recommending MMP. I talk about choosing correct mlp's going foward and listening to the conference calls this Dec Jan to feel secure about what they pick and hold. Today I heard MMP talk about their company and position these times. I think EPD had it's shot this am. Educate yourself these are different times and require some intellect
I have never been so proud to have you on this board of directors. They the enemy doesn't understand it is all political. From Markey the democratic senator who wants no exporting of any oid and cry's that NG prices are to high for his state and blocks new pipeline's into New England. Steyer giving democratic party 75M to block Keystone. Landreau and Nelson selliong their vote on Obamacare then crying when they are thrown out . She cry.s La will lose power on energy committee if she is thrown out. It is all political and the POS blocks the positive effects of export to satisfy his Union people (Jones Act) waste millions of dollar.s giving his cronies Solyndra exit costing our country millions and giving Finland millions for electric cars and give US 6 SIX jobs out of it. And Soros oil
guarantees for Brazilian bonds. And the coal democrats in WVa
selling out for a 5 year pass and then having coal thrown under the bus now crying we did mean Obamacare. And the democrats in W Pa blocking fracking and of course the biggest POS Cuomo blocking fracking while Western NY lives in a depession.
We imported from Canada 106,223 Thousand Barrels in Sept 2014 We imported 25,775 in Sept 2014 from Mexico and with all the BS we imported 24,697 barrels from Venezuela
Saudi Arabia via Montiva Enterprises 50% Royal Dutch Shell and 50% Aramco ownes Port Arthur refinery 600,000 TX -and 2 refineries in La 225,000 and 242,000 This is to insure they would have a market for their light sweet crude for years to come
My take on world market There is some 90M-91M used each day and 1M causing the price in Brent to rise and fall. Coming on line is Kurdish Iraq plus Iraq plus Lybia if they ever make peace plus USA. I just saw a video on discovery that S.A. has another facility ready to come on line with 1M per day . All would have been good if China EU Japan US had good economies and used more instead of less oil NOW. You and the IN group are great for sending out endless estimates of the world US etc. but my thesis remains the golden era will end by this decade for mlp's.. The buildout is great but if we can't export Diesel-gasoline-propane-ethane-isobutane-LNG -naptha substitutes it will slowly end. That's why I am championing export as the new oil and gas revolution for USA. The major block to this is the administration of C G .They have no business sense.They only know iL acorn-lying- co2 and such.These are general truths.
I can't resist throwing my 2 cents in. First known fact we are oversupplied with oil in US. There are just so many refineries mainly in gulf area that can treat raw oil. Unless we can export it out of country prices have to come down. supply and demand. S.A. only adds to the problem for the rest of world. I ask you to look at how much oil is really imported into US from S.A. Last time I looked it was about 1+M a day out of about 15M in US.
The saudis own 1/2 of the biggest or second biggest refinery in US and among the top 5 another 2 healthy percentages. So they do some damage but not what headlines state. The same goes for NG They have the ability to destroy Russia by lowering LNG via OPEC if they wanted too .As far as trends. Everything now is focused on what is lowest cost production per region per individual company. Being a stock market watcher I feel the market can only handle market trends and does not give better marks to best company when the the group is determined to be negative. They all suffer even those not in oil business. The NG producers suffer not because on NG price but their wet gas component prices margins are tied to oil prices.All mlp investors have to make 1 of 3 choices #1 sell until market returns to higher oil prices and chain returns to positive #2 Go into a 20-25% cash and become a opportunist buyer #3 Change mix of mlp holdings to reflect lower oil or basically diversify. Or some of each. I must say last year a no brainer is NYSE index funds did plus 30 percent
When I see a good percentage of mlp's are same price in last year and half I see a poor risk reward.. So your choice of mlp in good and bad market is the most important factor for being a smart investor not loyalty. As far as trend the topic today you have to become a chartist and act accordingly because you can't account for shocks and international chaos and guidance changes and pathetic administrations in US because it is a market of stocks and choice.
I have these past 5 years changed my strategy on mlp investing many times. Truthfully, I am now in a risk reward phase. I don't want to give up a years work. I think presently I should return to the cyclic 90 day regimen. Meaning sell 4 days prior to x div or at distribution day and rebuying midway or 6 -8 weeks into cycle. My major final action is in Feb where either I cash out of OILT or get EPD. I would like to cash out and go to 20% cash at end of Jan . At any rate in decreasing $,s I will stick in IRA to ETE TRGP WES MMP and MWE leaps 16 and 17 Everthing else is subject to sale. Four GP's and wes. I sent out the 1 1/2 yrs ago price that money correctly answered. There are alot of mlp.s that have done nothing in that time and in my way of thinking it is dead money. I only own MWE of the group and small amount of mmlp for distributions. Once again total return in my world.