I for one would not count on that happening. I would suggest you at least having a thought process that if it comes to past in next 5 years that you think of sending it to your grandchildren in form of UGMA and disperse it to other various parties. You /a spouse can send $26000 of MWE stock each year. They will not get stepped up basis. MWE and Targa family . Fortunately or unfortunately are the right size and command right assets for the likes of KMI ETE WMB. Just commenting on thought process.
Money ETP traded 1.8M so I am not looking at amlp when I say some fund started move of leaving KMP. What I think will happen is not only will there be movement in mlp group but I think there will be a overbought situation with mlp's especially smaller capatized mlp prices going past their intrinsic value.
Marklibera above makes an interesting comment as of today KMP 10+ EPB 2+ of AMLP fund still to be moved somewhere Over 1B dollars
More immediate question. Why is EMES and SLCA performing better that HCLP. CS gave it a 80 TP so I bought some HCLP and sold Jan 1/15 CC, I am a % person and figure 18% for 5 months was worth the trouble.
Money Far be it for me to explain the stock market to you. DPM has done a mediocre job as far Price appreciation these last 4 years. You can wed it if you want as those have wedded GEL PAA ETP WPZ. I ask the very basic question what do you want from a stock and do you care if stock goes up less than another with the same risk association. I happen to have sold ETP at 62 probably about 8 years ago. Today a good stock foward but dead in water for years.But threw off /68 cents for 4 years I only ask that you take whatever stock you love and then do a 5 year chart comparison with another choice.I probably have more MWE than majority of small investors. I would have been flat the last 2 years if I didn't buy 1/16 calls at 50 55 60 65.But 5-7-10% CAGR doesn't make it outstanding these last 2 years. You and others have a right to choose what you for whatever reason. I only ask that you don't snub those who choose EMES EQM TRGP ETE and those who are ahead of curve/ There is something as risk reward in stock market. This is enough from me for awhile Marv
The bold type was only too lazy and mishit. I am a stock market person. Doing this for 50 years. The way mlp' work is the ceo gives guidance about Feb then each quarter to see if he is correct and makes a few adjustments. The analysts model what he gives them and sets paramaters as to DCF Distributions ,if new equity needed and such. The houses that have commercial stakes in mlp's do analyst days and others positive things to get their investment banking business. The lazy houses have analysts that do not upgrade TP, which in old days was 12 to 18 months. The good houses have the best analyst teams and do weekly upgrades and usually change the perfomance RANKINGS weekly. fSome have stars of month picks. They move the market for the majority of investors inhouse and funds etc. The stock market daily works energy stocks dow s&p and effects price seasonally and daily. So you can have EMES SLCA doing better than HCLP even though the stats are the same. I watch the market and have not the accounting skill or temperment to buy early and hold on possiblities. As far as price everything is percentage. I made 4 mistakes this year not holding EMES in 40's same HCLP Selling 1/2 TRGP and not buying EQM when it dropped to 83. I truly appreciate your posts . I unfortunately have been a market person too long
MONEY Thanks BUT I had DPM on and off during my 2010 to 2012 years. Their price can't get me to interested.. I have a golden rule CAGR of 10+ and distribution over 1 1/2 increase each quarter. I talk in my IRA. Just to keep you updated in decreasing dollars ETE OILT TRGP MMP MWE EQM HCLP My brokerage is a different story MWE NGLS EPD BBEP(QRE) MMLP MMP Always appreciate your efforts. Marv
Hach always love your analysis. My take is somewhat different. ETE via ETP is one of the Major MAJOR ng mover in south and SW SE. Therefore they have the access to ethane easily. I see them selling off their stake in RGP and SXL and then borrowing rest and going after targa family As you know I have been into export being the next frontier for mlp,s type co's. ETE starts with NG then Propane Butane etc with Targa then condensate. From what I read KMI is overleveraged and must as you say sell off something.I feel DPM is under Cop/SE direction and to far west to feed Houston Channel, Port Arthur Beaumon TxCity export terminals. Landscape appears to be going foward EPD vs KMI vs ETE. My problem will be . They sold off my KM then targa next other than MWE OILT MMP EQM where will my money go?
Hach I have been studying this TRGP NGLS buyout since bloomberg leaked ETE story. The problem with KMI is at today's prices they need 17B and then what it would take to build an ethane export factlity and pipes with MWE to gulf. The rollup of KMI would put them in debt above and beyond but they have Goldman Sachs as their partner I still would not rule out ETE once they get LNG IPO and permits underway by middle of next year. They are only two mlp,s with 17B clout to absorb the jewel Targa family
Are you able to ascertain who will own the ships being built. I am not interested in the builder but will they belong to Reliance or somebody like GLOG.
JUST TO PIGGYBACK ON THIS A WORD ABOUT ANALYSTS and TP. You may think that by investigating a mlp before the analysts go to the yearly CC and analyst days that you are ahead of the curve. However, the analysts use models based on at at least last 5 years that I have been following this and after SEC stopped all self serving reports that hyped stocks. The analysts move stocks and their readership -reports that are followed by funds and people like me are the definitive movers of stock. They react to company guidance and so far in last 4 years CS have been wrong but once and only on timing and guidance by co. That stock was MWE and last year.. Regards Marv
DKL moved because an analyst gave them a TP of 45 2 days ago. I am not a market letter but ask you to look at latest slides for EQM conference. They are projecting 3 cents distribution increase every quarter for almost 2 + years. Looks very similar to TRGP. They also have a ton of dropdowns going foward/. I bought alittle HCLP and sold 2015 Jan CC. I work on percentage and if they reach 70 by Jan its a 20% in 6 months
I am happy to help if I can. There are billions of dollars tied up in KMP EPB KMR still , I think some are waiting to see if the roll up will be next year mainly for taxes that would be pushed onto 2016 Also a raft of analysts are saying that when the time comes KMI may be 45 about and therefore KMP EPB will be higher at conversion I sold some of my family KMR at 103 the first day. I have deceided to sell 1/2 of KMP which I did. hold out rest hoping into next year and transffering 20% to my grandchildren UGMA accounts.
As Ito my monthly pronouncements about Sept and Oct. let me remind all it is HURRICAINE season and many refiners start to changeover to winter and start the butane blending. My other statement remains
What I write is general terms and I it the result of many years doing this. What I tried to relate is that the KM family sell off will probably change the 2 month dynamics that I stated. The following mlp,s are closing in to their all time highs namely MWE MMP TRGP NGLS . These are the ones who are in the radar for purchase perhaps. I so far don't see the likes of PAA ETP benefiting. I reserve my thoughts on EPD until their appeal works it's way through courts. Your BWP is for a special group. The low volume for most mlps shows me that money has not moved from KM family yet. By the way these are my thoughts. Since it appears all but 4 have gone away from this website I use my ramblings as fill ins.
This week and until Labor day volume of mlp's is traditionally very low. History has shown for mlp,s Sept and Oct are the poorest performing months.Since the KM influx commentary has not taken hold I just see today a slow movement from KM family to Targa family ,MMP EQM HCLP MWE types on rebound. I wait to see when KM group passes government monopoly test and then date of conversion to see the major influx to those named. MWE holding so far. Citi mlp conference Aug 20 and 21 MEMP EROC SMLP OILT EPD juist a few