You may have been sleeping but this was announced about a week ago. I have not changed my mlp investing philosophy. CAGR more than 10% a yr and more than 2 cents increase each quarter. I have to rid myself of my OILT position and in decreasing dollars ETE TRGP MMP EQM HCLP The oilt money will be put into TRGP ETE and depending on this weeks CC for EQM. Looking seriously at PSXP Marv
Arb my guru from IV board. Today everything was doing good until oil retreated so I feel oil still is shaking the mlp group. I also don't expect much change in guidance from MWE EPD . I now focus more on EPD as OILT will end being EPD not to my present liking. Howard dissertation was my feeling as I had made some similar comments about NG and NGLS before. The dynamics of the ETF ETN Mutual funds brings some light to velocity we see.I saw a very knowledgeable oil person on TV who said that many refineries are down and when they return oil futures will move up somewhat also a positive.My other thought is whoever dropped the most would probably rebound the most. However, the good will rise to top.At anyrate hanging in.
I ask this from those awake. What makes you buy from this point foward as the cc's are coming up next 2 weeks. Does predictability of distribution do it- does projects in works do it-does increase of distribution each quarter do it-. I ask this because the present standard in industry EPD has perdictability 1 cent pre split,great projects, just as MWE. So I expect MWE to perform just as EPD price wise until MWE changes its distribution policy to more than 1 cent a quarter. Or are you in bargin frame of mind as to who dropped the most.
My 2 cents is who will rebound the most when returning to normalcy, MY money is on the highest CAGR players. MWE is in the lower half this year
I usually hawk sell in May and go away and Sept 1 to Oct are the most treacherous but never did I think this massacre could happen. These past two weeks are what hero's refer to when they talk of buys. I heard the most positive cc since I have been listening to them these last 20 years by Targa.. Most interesting is that the analysts have not collapsed their TP for TRGP ETE and a few others. We have to see around Thanksgiving what NG is selling for to see any recovery for the NG mlp's when weather get cold nationally. I have been through this twice before and hope in a few years to says 3 times. The Targa buy changes alot of things for the 12B to 15B group. I think personally it makes MWE the #1 buy these next 2 -3 yrs Only KMI WMB ETE have the clout OKE DPM MMP also would make great fits for somebody
Very interesting happening today. NG off 9 cents or 2.2% yet the NG pipelines are getting hit beyond that these last few days and weeks. Volume shows only sellers and very few buyers. Also the mutual fund types are what is killing mlp market as they have rules about losses. The gas pipelines are getting hit when NG really has not tanked to the degree of oil related mlp's. I feel that the group as a pendulum has swung far to left and will return to middle with some damage apparent. What I don't know and hope will be explained is propane butane prices have to retreated during this period is it a plus for EPD and NGLS or a negative. Is drop in oil a negative or positive for oil storage plays as PAA MMP Does anybody have some smarts about these issues. Marv
The fed has to get out of buying bonds and controlling interest rates as there is no inflation. Once they signal that they are raising fed rates then the 2.3 or lower rates will rise quickly and the fun begins. The numbers say we are doing better than the rest of world. The guy on street is suffering but numbers say unemployment is 5.8% The US companies are doing well but those who have better than 25% overseas are one's getting killed taking whole market with them. If GDP for last quarter is 3% or better it signals a interest rate going up . The when is the major question. The lowering of gasoline prices which used to be a drag on economy are moving toward $3.00 so it is when
The latest hits on mlp stocks besides the traditional Sept-Oct malaise is that oil prices are retreating. Once again it shows that we in mlp's are connected to oil prices and interest rates because we are a sub market of energy sector. The 10 year treasury at 2.38% today is pointing to the fact that interest fed rates will be higher sometimes next year. The group is getting hit also because refiners who played the brent vs wti spread are getting killed as it narrows.A Shell top official said that gasoline and oil prices will continue to drop until approx Jan then stabilize and reverse.This season is a buy and hold. I and speak only for myself feel that companies who move WTI and refined oil products will survive nicely. PS MWE TP Jeffries is a 79. I say this every quarter but this is more important than most. The CC's will tell how each will do in this low oil and major slow down of world economies will effect each company into next year.
Never before has there been so much activity surrounding mlp's since I have been doing this.. The KMP situation and holding up of their family price is a positive. EPD and it's dominant position on export and mid stream refinement in the gulf region is a positive for future. Serious discussion on changes in export policy and the 3 major oil fields Bakken Permian and Eagleford at full steam. Williams and ETP expanding the NG footprint in the eastern i/2 of US. The mlp group following the oil group model of M &A and starting the 5 Billion to 16 Billion purchase plan. So while the next 2 weeks are important they are overshadowed by the strong realization that NG NGLS LNG and export companies are at their strongest potential going into winter. No hurricanes a plus . EPD CC will tell the state of mid stream going foward. Oil dropping in price provides for MMP SXL health in new projects. MWE supplying everybody with NLGS products across the board.Even the shipping of LNG and Condensate and NGLS creating a boom for shippers. Although there has been some deterioration in price the future for next six months remains bright. Mostly the consolidation once KMI WMB EPD closes expect more M&A activity ala Chevron years ago.
Thanks again. Just drove in rain from Richmond to Palm Beach Cty in 15 hours Friday. Took a look at what I left for week. Before I read your dissertation I had already deceided to add to MMP. EPD is my third largest position in my regular brokerage account. Never a great fan of EPD because CAGR under 10%. What is happening to mlp's happened to oil. Amaco Texaco went out Conoco-Marathon-OXY HESS breaking up and BP being bled to death. My golden era is 2014-16 but I will add a year to 2017 ( I still am afraid of interest rates after 2015) It is very obvious that the 2 jewels remain Targa and MWE. . I also had thoughts of adding TRGP at 136 or under presently. Everything depends on guidance this CC season EPD becomes the USS IBM of mlp's reporting within a week. How TRGP NGLS fills it's DCF this quarter and next is very important. I guess ETE TRGP MMP EQM will have to do going foward. Then HCLP EMES SUSP minor holds No premium for OILT a real bummer but EPD TP to 46 may be a salvation. I looked at NSLP 6
months ago but it trades at low volume and couldn't get a good price. Thanks again Marv
What do you think is going on. READ what I have written . 7 reasons for down market. 10 years at 2.4% is positive. mlp's are getting hit because of oil price down, in energy sector,Saudi's promising to lower price and lastly NG season has nor yet winter become
I find that you are on target as usual.Lets forget about MWE.for the moment. I have plenty of ETE and equal TRGP and MMP. So what is your best call for next 2 years. As you know I am a cagr total return .investor.. PS CS has EPD at TP 46-MMP at 90 and TRGP at 141
I am coming home and in VA. I am shocked by events. OILT is a German worldwide company..Very interested in the deal as it is my second largest holding in my IRA and has a number of export facilities that will make EPD a Major exporter as OILT has terminals worldwide especially in Europe. Hach whar do you make of deal?
An absolute brilliant person. I hope you can think and chew gum at same time from now on.
I miss Lee More and WWVA out of Wheeling I used to get the 50000 signal to NY at 12 midnight. Those were the hay days for Wheeling and RR
Made it to VT. I used to go skiing at Straton and Bromley 30 yrs ago with my son , Bennington Vt was a thriving town and all I see is closed stores on Main Street.The socialist Sanders should look to his own state and fix it instead of crowing more socialistic garbage. I am amazed that you are espousing political verbage on our innocent MWE cite. From what I can ascertain Europe is in recession ,Japan is stagnant and China has stopped buying for inventory . All this is causing the multinational companies to slow down profits and taking everything down with it. The good for mlp's is interest rates are low and continue to be. BUT I now feel that alot of innocent people looking for dividends are winding up with mlp,s and are clueless about them causing these problems when general market retreats. Exports must balance lower oil prices. We are 1 month away from cold weather nationwise and focus on NG and propane etc. As we go into week 4 things are holding up in what I see as poor economic climate in US. I think the momentum players bailed on sand but as numbers come in next moth and with co forecasting thins will reverse. I personally looking for 70 for HCLP and 130 for EMES. SUSP/EPD will be good and ETE will also benefit. I bought somemore MWE Feb 12/15s60 and ETE OILT TRGP When I come back I will be fully invested for OCT-APR months