I have made a few statements these last 3 years about the golden era the above years. It was based on my view that Oil NG NGLS EXPORT would give the mlp market a halo and above average returns. Unfortuneatly one of the supports and major focus has had a malfunction, namely, oil. It has caused serious doubts about CAPEX ,m & a ,needs of the industry. Even exports of LNG, condensates, etc take on a new focus as far as margins and profitability. I am no expert in any field but know a basic tenent of investing. Everybody had better select mlp's that are less structured towards oil,and more diversified and conservative in debt accumulation.and fee based overall. Not rocket science.
Every time there a pronouncement about climate the democrats and he bring out a raft of so called experts who happen to be of the liberal democratic progressive slant. I also love the gent who gave the democrats 75M to kill the likes of Keystone and all who support it politically As far as voting for him twice YOU ARE THE PERSON GRUBER speaks about a Stupid American who can't distinguish a liar. By the way I have a bridge in Brooklyn that can be bought cheap Interested?
Since you have read my chronicle these past few years I assume you should have read the part about risk vs reward. Today with low volume was the tip of iceberg as the margin calls will hit Monday. During the Oct mid month debacle I saw 10 months of work evaporate in 5 days. I wish you really read the above post and last weeks tenor of the times. I again repeat that the safest mlp's are the NG pipes and I include ETE ETP as the main examples. Next the refined product group MMP SUN perhaps CLMT? Then the third in line the NG NGLS who also export EPD TRGP That leaves the fractionators MWE EPD Those mentioned I think will survive by next summer when NG becomes -On MY MIND- I had a very large position in OILT. Unfortuneately when announced it traded via EPD which has been in 37-38+ range for 2 months. I slowly exited and sold CC 2/15 /s and may end up with EPD for 1/3 of my position.Which I will CC away hopefully. I may have been scared inthe2009 time frame when my wife was very ill but I believe the oil and gas revolution was coming then. This BS about healthy pull back in not in my sphere of present day thoughts We are in the grip of a worldwide slowdown with a socialist muslim president who has a black latin welfare agenda and not one bit interested in the well being of this country. I will take back last remarks only when we have a sound business export oil-condensate -refined product program. Otherwise things will eventual work out in 2 years. Marv
There are a variety of reasons for this selloff which I have enumerated but the underlying fundamentals remain solid. 10 yr still is at 2.51% The volume is such that there are few buyers and sellers have sold mlp's down along with the market. Oil has not collapsed and remains in low 90's and NG is 3 cents under $4.00. So my September thesis has been right so far. It remains for each individual to temper their risk. I personally have put most of my cash in as I dollar cost averaged down . Next two weeks, week 4 and 5 will hopefully hold. I have gone through this at least 5-8 times in last 10 years.
Never before has there been so much activity surrounding mlp's since I have been doing this.. The KMP situation and holding up of their family price is a positive. EPD and it's dominant position on export and mid stream refinement in the gulf region is a positive for future. Serious discussion on changes in export policy and the 3 major oil fields Bakken Permian and Eagleford at full steam. Williams and ETP expanding the NG footprint in the eastern i/2 of US. The mlp group following the oil group model of M &A and starting the 5 Billion to 16 Billion purchase plan. So while the next 2 weeks are important they are overshadowed by the strong realization that NG NGLS LNG and export companies are at their strongest potential going into winter. No hurricanes a plus . EPD CC will tell the state of mid stream going foward. Oil dropping in price provides for MMP SXL health in new projects. MWE supplying everybody with NLGS products across the board.Even the shipping of LNG and Condensate and NGLS creating a boom for shippers. Although there has been some deterioration in price the future for next six months remains bright. Mostly the consolidation once KMI WMB EPD closes expect more M&A activity ala Chevron years ago.
We are in for a rocky road ride as the world ,since China has slowed down the #1 user of oil and Iraq,Iran and Lybia have come online along with Russia and OPEC needing revenue to keep their messed up countries economies afloat. So the pressure on WTI and Brent will continue. There is ongoing talk as to what number oil will keep the fracking industry solvent. I personally have come to a risk reward situation as far as how to deal with this. Having been trapped into the optimism of sand plays and new oil pipes I have tried to shift to NG pipes..Unfortuneately the market tone for mlp's has evaporated as energy sector sells off..I personally have been trying to raise cash. My personal view today is the survivers if it gets to that will be fee based and exporters. I am looking kindly at EPD somewhat NGLS and ETE. I don't know how the fractionators will make out in a lower CAPEX world . At anyrate the weak will be heard from . The strong silent rationalizing.their position. My thoughts on MWE remains for my IRA leaps 16 and soon 17. In brokerage regular account hold on till they are bought out by KMI. Any rational thoughts by senior members accepted. By the way an excellent position paper by Factoids of seekingalpha-KMP board days gone by ,fame said that those who are guided by DCF company pronouncements that are correctly targeted or higher do well and those who have guided DCF and produced lower DCF have suffered negatively.. In all my years this is the first explanation to why some mlp's do not move in a year or more and perform poorly against their peers.
I ask this from those awake. What makes you buy from this point foward as the cc's are coming up next 2 weeks. Does predictability of distribution do it- does projects in works do it-does increase of distribution each quarter do it-. I ask this because the present standard in industry EPD has perdictability 1 cent pre split,great projects, just as MWE. So I expect MWE to perform just as EPD price wise until MWE changes its distribution policy to more than 1 cent a quarter. Or are you in bargin frame of mind as to who dropped the most.
KMP closes its rollup November 26. Follow where all funds put their money from KMP KMR EPD next 10 days. OPEC meets next week no surprises expected. Will MWE get bumped up higher than 77?
Thanks. But the funds showup because of the date that they must redistribute the KMP money into other mlp stocks. I mentioned this topic because throughout the years I ask those awake to follow the volume. Individuals have a very minor influence on stocks and to have this dislocation it is the fund money that does this. MWE hit 77 not because of individuals but because of fund money. The day traders and momentum players hit it back down with just alittle plus for the day. PS if you want to buy mlps a certain day put orders in 12 noon to 2;30 as they usually trade lowest then. Highest usually first first 1/2 hour and last half hour of trading. Just a general observation. For those reading this far ,now,the WTI price is the most important factor for the market tone in mlp's. No matter what anyone says if it falls to $ 70-$ 73 look out. The NG futures have a great effect over $4.50 in NG related mlp's
I have never been so proud to have you on this board of directors. They the enemy doesn't understand it is all political. From Markey the democratic senator who wants no exporting of any oid and cry's that NG prices are to high for his state and blocks new pipeline's into New England. Steyer giving democratic party 75M to block Keystone. Landreau and Nelson selliong their vote on Obamacare then crying when they are thrown out . She cry.s La will lose power on energy committee if she is thrown out. It is all political and the POS blocks the positive effects of export to satisfy his Union people (Jones Act) waste millions of dollar.s giving his cronies Solyndra exit costing our country millions and giving Finland millions for electric cars and give US 6 SIX jobs out of it. And Soros oil
guarantees for Brazilian bonds. And the coal democrats in WVa
selling out for a 5 year pass and then having coal thrown under the bus now crying we did mean Obamacare. And the democrats in W Pa blocking fracking and of course the biggest POS Cuomo blocking fracking while Western NY lives in a depession.
Something very interesting happening in the oil industry. After everybody who is clueless talking about the end of oil a raft of so called smart people are now talking of a somewhat higher oil price. It proves that nobody knows what Saudi Arabia will do in the future. I say this because it appears to me that being a long term investor in mlp industry has changed for ME. I now have to go to a risk reward focus. CAGR appears to be being lowered by many forecasts You may have heard this from me endlessly but the next 2 months are so very important as CC's will tell the immediate story of the future. Very surprising OKS the first has a positive focus.
I usually hawk sell in May and go away and Sept 1 to Oct are the most treacherous but never did I think this massacre could happen. These past two weeks are what hero's refer to when they talk of buys. I heard the most positive cc since I have been listening to them these last 20 years by Targa.. Most interesting is that the analysts have not collapsed their TP for TRGP ETE and a few others. We have to see around Thanksgiving what NG is selling for to see any recovery for the NG mlp's when weather get cold nationally. I have been through this twice before and hope in a few years to says 3 times. The Targa buy changes alot of things for the 12B to 15B group. I think personally it makes MWE the #1 buy these next 2 -3 yrs Only KMI WMB ETE have the clout OKE DPM MMP also would make great fits for somebody
I am sneaking in this topic prior to most CC's these next 2 weeks and as some mlp's have recovered somewhat. ETN ETF Mutual funds have no emotional attachments to a mlp. Analysts have some emotional ties since their reputation is on the line,and co they work for must attract clients in part due to their success. We the small investor have alot of emotional energy to a particular stock . This group has an enormous amount of energy given to MWE. Sometimes an excessive amount of emotional energy clouds a prudent investment outlook(not speaking of MWE). Therefore, one should listen to the cc's and take a fundamental outlook of their guidance going forward and their DCF coverage the only true evaluation for small investor . Call this elementery but as I read many boards and why they buy . It astounds me why they pick some mlp's.
I just read the EMES CC today. They made some very glowing predictions about next year distributions. I hope HCLP is on same level. What it showed me was that the drillers if oil prices go lower they will put more effort on getting more out of existing wells. Therefore the total going in pipes should not be affected. NG also with a number of coal plants shutting and LNG starting to make the beginning inroads should be safe for this year pricewise.
Hach sorry that we are using MWE board for a mini IV but until MWE makes a major DCF turn it is of some interest. CS and my guru J. Edwards at CS raised MMP TP today to 92. Of the majors I follow RBC notes ETE TP at 77
Today Friday has some funds redirecting the money coming out of KMP. The over 30+M KMP trading shares has prompted a dramatic volume day for MWE PAA EPD ETP VLP EQM WES ENLK etc The alerian funds have still to deploy.The next 9 days will I expect show a mlp bounce.
I think your analysis along with arb would be a wake up call for some flag wavers Thanks for your posts Marv
You are clueless. Tell that to all the people who paid up to $80 a share from May to Sept. How does those numbers work for negatives. They lost money buying it at 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80. While I think you a great flag waver don't be a Curious George and lie to group with your selective nonsense.