He takes Viagra........Thus, his feeling of absolute command now and into the future. :-)
From your mouth:
"Third Quarter EPS .09. Misses by $.06 cents. That's my prediction
That is all"
You have zero credibility. Come to think of it, that's actually what your moniker should be changed to (i.e., zero credibility)...........
Uh, 'that is all'......... :-)
"Triangle Petroleum (TPLM -8%) slides to near five-year lows after posting a smaller Q3 profit compared with last year despite revenue nearly doubling and production growing nearly 80% Y/Y to 12,230 boe/day.
Wunderlich maintains its Buy recommendation on TPLM, given the company's three growth businesses, strong liquidity and recently lowered share count due to opportunistic purchases; the firm continues to believe TPLM's strategy makes sense even in a low-priced environment, and is impressed by its financial strength especially after the share repurchases"
(At this point there is a chart- -I was not able to post it)
Now I can take some time to focus on conventional investors. Using a shorthand DCF calculator and adjusting the WACC discount rate to 8% and the terminal growth rate to 3%, projecting 5 years out, there is a 73% margin of safety and a fair value of $15.16. Next to competitors and the industry, Triangle reports a higher quarterly revenue growth of 1.82 (or 182%) and significantly lower P/E and price to sales ratios, which shows that the company is undervalued relative to its peers (Yahoo Finance). Aside from my own opinion, I have found that the analyst consensus is a combination of "buy" and "outperform." Remember that emotion is the only thing reflected in a company's stock price- not its actual value. The time to buy is now while the market shows a price far below book and intrinsic value. Triangle Petroleum is a stable company that will not fall regardless of the falling oil prices. The recent prices are not a long term ordeal and it is highly likely that the United States will loosen its regulation on exporting crude oil. If you are willing to hold on for the long run, then Triangle is your best bet for incredible returns.
To end this analysis on a value investing note, I will run through a small portion of modern Graham analysis of Triangle Petroleum:
For the Defensive Investor -
PEmg is less than 20 - PASS - the company actually has a negative PEmg of -29.34 (Modern Graham)
P/B ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 - PASS - the company has a price to book ratio of .62
For the Enterprising Investor -
Current ratio 1.5 - FAIL - the company is close, though, at 1.38
Debt-to-Net Current Assets ratio
Being a strong believer in value investments, let me first address the value investing audience. Benjamin Graham has encouraged all of his so called "disciples" to choose investments that are cheap, ugly, obscure, and ignored. Let's first look at price: what can get more attractive than a price to earnings ratio of 4.40 or a price to book value ratio of .62 (Yahoo Finance)? Both follow Graham's general guidelines in screening for equity investments. What makes the company ugly is that it was once priced as high as $12.48 per share and now sits at $4.03 per share as of December 3, 2014 (Google Finance). The company is also not very well known at all and is extremely small compared to other player in the oil and gas industry, such as Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC) or National Oilwell Varco (NYSE:NOV). While Triangle has an incredible amount of stability for such a young and small company, it is not treated as the gem that it is.
Now let's dive into technicals. Going through TPLM's balance sheet and making proper adjustments, I found that Triangle's assets have a 6% higher value than actually reported. This is due to the expected future appreciation of property value that the company owns as well as replacing "intangible assets" with one year of SG&A since it is not a real line item. On the other hand, Triangle's liabilities decreased by a small percentage, which left the company with a net asset value of nearly $700 million. That is up from around a $630 million book value and gives Triangle a margin of safety of around $292 million. The next step we have to take is to compare that value to the company's earnings power value. This required an in depth look at the company's income statements from the past 3 years. In short, I calculated the weighted average cost of capital to be about 6.70% and the earnings power value to be about $1.25 billion, leaving Triangle with a margin of safety of around $842 million.
Triangle Petroleum Corporation has significant stability in its structure alone and is focused on vertical integration.
Value investors take note: cheap, ugly, obscure, and ignored.
Conventional investors take note: this is the safest high risk investment you can take.
Triangle Petroleum Corporation (NYSEMKT:TPLM) is a vertically integrated exploration and production company that focuses on unconventional shale oil and natural gas. For those energy junkies out there, you may be more familiar with its E&P competitors: Whiting Petroleum (NYSE:WLL) and Continental Resources (NYSE:CLR). Unlike those larger companies, however, Triangle has been focused on the development and acquisition of acreage. The company is positioned in the Bakken Shale of the Williston Basin in North Dakota and Montana, which is one of the United States' most productive regions, and in the Maritimes Basin of Nova Scotia. The company is also divided into 3 parts: Triangle USA, RockPile Energy Services, and Caliber Midstream Partners.
Caliber Midstream is the result of a joint venture with the First Reserve Energy Infrastructure Fund in which Triangle Petroleum Corp. owns 30%. First Reserve is the largest private equity firm in the world that focuses solely on energy and Caliber gathers, transports, treats, and processes oil and gas. The Caliber division now services all of TPLM's property, and provides TPLM with access to new crude oil pipelines, rail terminals, and market centers in the Williston Basin. Triangle USA is the E&P division while RockPile is the drilling/extracting (hydraulic fracturing) portion of the company (LinkedIn).
I just read a very positive SA piece about TPLM. It was written by a woman named Bailey Link. I tried posting the entire article, but did not have any success. As soon as the market closes I'll try posting the article piecemeal.
Couldn't agree with you more, contraband. Although I'm down substantially with TPLM and PVA, I will not give up my shares. Respecting the bashers, it's beyond my comprehension why true longs would entertain the thought of responding to any of their posts. Where is the value of engaging in a diatribe with these people? On a more positive note, I enjoy reading your multi-syllabic posts (I mean that). Good luck to you and other longs here.
Oh, so you call almost a 6% drop (as I type) "just showers left to deal with?"
I could see you saying that when we've reached a bottom. As long as we continue this downward trend, we haven't reached a bottom yet.
And if anyone here tells you what the bottom is.................Well, you can fill in the rest of the sentence.
"I will look for a bottom."
Right now, I'm more concerned with how many/which ones of the small E&P's will not survive this sh-t.
And I'm holding two of em'.....TPLM and PVA.