You can read the seeking alpha article that is currently 5 stories down on Yahoo's NE page. It also gives NE's statement on why they are doing it. My personal take is kind of neutral on it. NE management says it's so that NE and Spinoff Company can each focus on what they do best. Yawn....you have all kinds of public companies that have multiple divisions and they have a division head who focuses on his particular division. Say like GE which has tons of divisions that are completely unrelated. Anyway, it would remain to be seen just how much benefit is accrued by 2 separate companies. I don't think it's a negative though because contracts are still contracts...it's not like they will loose any revenues....although they'll have associated costs to doing the spinoff. I don't know....just my quick take....there are people here who understand the company and industry much better than I do, I just don't see the spinoff really impacting the stock price if everything else is going well.
The chart looks bullish to me,petro.....esp. on a weekly chart where we had that nice rally above 40 on good volume and then declining volume each week after that as the stock went lower. Also on the weekly chart we have good support at 37. This chart looks to me like a long consolidation (long is good) that is ready to rally. If you add this technical setup to the fact that for now there is nothing fundamentally that would indicate that world economies are contracting, and then add to that the traditional seasonal rally in the first quarter, and then add to that increasing revenues through 2014, I think this is a really nice risk/reward setup at a time when investors attention is elsewhere. This is why I am planning on a large position. I've also bought stock today, still with plenty of dry powder to buy more. By the way, the longer the consolidation, the more likely that you get a dramatic move when it goes. If we can get a week where the momentum crowd gets a hold of it in early 2014, I think we could easily see 45+.
I shorted the January 37 puts today @ .91 as a way to either collect the premium or get put the stock at a price I would be pleased with.
Approaching Christmas is rarely a bullish time for these stocks, but I think you position yourself for at least a 10% four month return by building a large position during the next 30 or so trading days. I think the market as a whole should have a selloff, but I don't think it will. However, I think you buy 1/2 of what you want in the 37-38 range, and then hope that maybe you get some kind of selloff that let's you average in cheaper. This is in preparation for the usual first quarter rally which I think we're getting well positioned for given the seasonality combined with a stock price that has gone nowhere and may be looked at as positioned to rally combined with some catalysts such as spinoff and increasing revenues from newbuilds. I think there is even a good shot at seeing a stock price of 45+ by say end of March. I'm also going to sell puts on dips to make income or get NE put to me at prices like 35 or 36 which is where I would love to average in anyway.
Hey guys, been very busy with family in town. Thanks for the well wishes and hope Thanksgiving was great for you guys. First evening where I won't be having turkey for dinner.
OK, mommy.....and thanks Bits.
I had no NE, so I bought 600 shares @ 38.08. I'll probably get to an even 1k shares if it goes lower.
I was on vacation for 16 days. I was in Prague and then Budapest. I had always wanted to see those 2 cities. I did have my laptop, but for some reason it wasn't letting me post. I had a fantastic time and some really funny experiences. Budapest has these amazing thermal water spas in really dramatic settings....I went to 2 of them....Gellert and Szechenyi and it was just SO fantastic. Travelling is cheap in both places and food is really good and pretty cheap. Anyway, thanks for your concern. I'm back but probably won't do all that much trading during Thanksgiving week. Hope all is well with you and everyone else. Hi Bits.
currently at 37.42, has support in here. I didn't have any stock so bought an opening chunk (about 1/3)....think they're just taking it down with Oil...but obviously 95 dollar oil is hardly a problem for drillers....not even close and likely to start gaining some price support pretty soon.
Hey pOnY gRRL, re: "still have a 1000 shares that may say goodbye tomorrow" hope you sold that 1k on the opening run this AM! fingers crossed that you did. ♥
I would sell at least 1/2 of my position in ESV given that we've had such a strong 3 day run....pretty good chance of a pullback after a run like that. I might even consider selling the whole thing and take a gamble that we're in a trading range where you might get a chance to buy back at say 56. I'm out of it now except for options. If it keeps on rising, oh well. I still think we get a strong up move in the first quarter of 2014, but I'm willing to bet that these stocks won't launch until sometime in January or February.
Good luck and hope all is well.
It can't get no respect. Oil prices soar up...it basically does nothing. Oil prices go down..... NE goes down. Market goes up...NE does nothing. Way below market PE...no one cares. Revenues and earnings to increase dramatically over next 2 years....no one cares. No respect!
We're coming up against the 200 day sma @ 38.27, and the 50 day is right about there also @ 38.40. When they converge like that it often represents strong resistance, but if it breaks above both then it could get a nice extended move higher into the 38.70 area (first resistance from overhead) and above there it could head toward 40. With the market so strong, oil stocks doing well today, the good NE earnings report for which it got no love yesterday, I could see us going to 38.70 either today or on Monday. Still think we're range bound into year end with the breakout move coming in the first quarter of 2014.
Must not be an experienced NE player (re: the options play), because in all the years I have been following NE, it rarely has big moves that last based on their earnings report. We've all said it before, that with the monthly fleet status reports, and general knowledge about industry fundamentals out there, the earnings reports just end up being a little added color to what is mostly already known. I'm going to buy some NE now that it is negative on the day because I anticipate my put sales to expire tomorrow without any getting put to me....I have them at 37 and 36....most at 36.
Yeah, I've got some of those too...only I decided to choose the ones expiring a day earlier to free up the weekend.
37 is where I draw an uptrendline going all the way back to late 2012. It is also more current support zone from recent lows. I added to my position on the dip under 37 this am. still a small position, but will sell puts probably 36's...maybe novembers to possibly build a bigger position if they get put to me.
I took a look at the chart today and we're smack in the middle of a range between about 35 to 42. That signals indecisiveness about direction, but we've made both higher lows on the support end and lower highs on the resistance end when you look at the daily chart since around April. In other words it forms a pretty good triangle if you connect the lines. The classic technical interpretation of triangles is that when they form an apex (like where we are right now) they break out stongly either up or down. The classic TA would say that you break in the direction of the trend prior to when the triangle formed. So the triangle is a continuation pattern, a consolidation in the direction of the trend. With NE the trend is up, but it's a very weak trend. Over the years it's definitely made higher lows, but it's peaked a bunch of times around 45 back a few years ago. I still think this is going to resolve to the upside, or at least test 45-46 again given where revenues should go in 2014 and 2015. My guess though is that it won't make that break until the first quarter of 2014 during the seasonally strong time period. Hopefully we won't be in a market swoon then.
Geez, I'm starting to get a little claustrophobic in here, but I did manage to find an ipad in here after fishing through some lacy stuff, but I'll have to be brief (no pun intended). I have small positions in both ESV and NE. I'm not doing anything with either one until they make a move of note in either direction.
petro, laughing because I had to do exactly the same thing re: puts. I looked at it on Tuesday or Wednesday when the 55's were pennies, and said why bother...they're not going to get it down to 55 in this bullish tape. Oh well. Sometimes I think there is some evil billionaire trader who spends his days looking at my positions and thinking: "OK, how can we mess up nysfparachute's trades today"