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Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. Message Board

nysfparachute 3 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 7, 2014 11:26 PM Member since: May 29, 2005
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  • nysfparachute nysfparachute Dec 7, 2014 11:26 PM Flag

    Hi PG! Nice to hear from you! Best of luck to you and all of us longs. I wonder if bits and petro are still in NE. Take care.

  • No candy-coating this, it's ugly and I'm down a lot....but I bought my last batch today which brought my average price down to around 23. I've read some of the commentary on this board, and what can I say....I've been a trader for 17 years and it's the same old, same old. All the negative commentary seems right when the stock is in the toilet and the news is bad and technicals are bad, and then at some point the doomsayers are wrong and don't see or catch the turn. I remember in 2008 when I had an investment in Whole Foods at 10 and everyone was saying "bankrupcy is next". It turned around and was a 10-bagger from there (not that I was there for the ride).

    It's pretty obvious that the oil market has the big traders leaning on it. If history is a guide, oil usually gains strength in the first quarter of the new year, and I'm thinking that might be when the shorting pressure comes off. Even if news out of the deep water drillers is still bad, the crowd can turn it anyway, wanting to get in early and the shorts want to cover before fast momentum takes the stocks back up. In the past when these guys turn, they turn hard.....I remember in the past seeing a week where NE is up 6 or 7 points and then up another 3 or more before the run tapers off over the next month.

    Not predicting that this is the bottom, but they've already priced solid companies like HERO for bankruptcy at a dollar a share....that's some pretty extreme pessimism priced in, so I wouldn't be surprised if we're at a bottom. That's why I bought some NE today. I'm done. Just going to wait it out now.

  • nysfparachute nysfparachute Oct 3, 2014 2:00 PM Flag

    typea, did you bury your money in your backyard during the 2008 financial crisis when the entire worldwide banking system was going to fail, and you could buy the entire financial sector etf at a price that was equivalent to an option? This is what happens when people go to negative sentiment extremes. NE can easily afford the dividend payout even if all rigs coming off contract were not renewed over the next year. I waited patiently and finally bought my final chunk (another 20%) of NE today. Yes, I'm down huge. Average is 26. Not telling others what to do, but NE and the offshore guys have a long long history of bouncing back from extreme selloffs....Macondo anyone? or the 2008 financial crisis?

6.31+0.25(+4.13%)Dec 26 4:04 PMEST

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