I'm buying the VIX. ANFI is 6 months out now if issues subside. Management can't be trusted. While revenue drop can be attributed to some degree on price of rice (historically $14-$16 range). This past yoy is $10-$13. I believe with ownership distribution shareholders interest are down on the list.
Funny. Revenue drop can be partially balmed on falling rise prices. Would be interested to see what the bulk rate sold was. Me thinks they had good idea revenue short fall due to the amount of new distribution agreements. CEO is a clown. I had put more faith in CFO than I should have, looks to me like currency fluctuations were blamed as well. currencies seem to be correcting to more normal level. We'll see if net income can rise now with past issues behind. Shorts certainly had their way. Even with a normalized PE should be at $9 + or -.
Trending parallel with other organic food stocks today. Still need to have a buy on based on vaulation and growth. If the shorts are taking it down then will be anothe opportunity to lower my cost basis.
Historical is around 12.5. Based on historical earnings growth, projected earnings should come in around $1.80. Best case would be 22.50. If you look at the top natural foods PE: STKL 59, CMG 29, WWAV 41, attempting to place and avg PE for the industry will be substantially skewed. Might be better to use the median which is approximately 24 for PE. The average PE for the Russel 200 and S&P are around 17. I prefer to go with somewhere between the current and historical of around 10 which puts ANFI value at $18 if earnings growth is maintained.
Friday was up on reporting news. Monday profit taking and increased short position. Will continue to seesaw (hopefully to close over $14 at some point in time).
The question to ask is regarding growth and margins and does it appear those golas are being met. The Dubai operations are much more important as this is not an Indian shell company.
CFO Bruce Wacta, sits in New York. He is a U.S. citizen. As a U.S.-based CFO of an NYSE-listed company, he is subject to Sarbanes-Oxley. That means he can go to jail and do prison time if there was fraudulaunt reporting.
On the debt: The recent $225 million bond issuance. New 5-year notes are due in 2020, and replace shorter-term debt. Most likely, it’s a favorable interest rate term swap.
We're also moving quickly to capitalize our new sales channels, and this is evidenced through our partnership with Snapdeal.com. With the number of India's Internet users projected to double by 2018, this partnership will give us access to India's largest online marketplace with over 20 million users. The partnership with Snapdeal.com will enable us to participate in India's robust e-commerce growth, and position us as the first rice brand in India to enter the e-Commerce channel in the region.
Below is a littled dated
Outside India, internationally, we are also making significant progress, expanding our brand's presence. This is particularly true in the developed markets, which generally provide a large market opportunity, which is still fragmented, brand ownership positions. I'm particularly pleased with the progress we made in the UK. We continue to build on more than 3,000 distribution points through key wins with two premium retail chains.
We launched Amira-branded products in Waitrose stores, adding 553 distribution points in the UK. Now, the Waitrose chain in the UK is pretty much like what you have, Whole Foods, in the US. They command the same premium and the same socioeconomic segment of consumer base.
And then we launched into Asda, which is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Walmart, the second largest British supermarket chain. Combined with our existing agreements with Morrisons and Tesco, Amira-branded products are now sold in four of the five largest food retailers in the UK. This is quite an expansion story, given that we only entered the UK a year ago
The market as a whole struggled the past 12 months and the IPO market has note fared well. a 40% discount to market highs seems to be consistant with a good portion of equities.
Welcome to the caste system prevaliant in India. I would disagree with the div. statement for a company burdened with debt or at least high debt costs. I would rahter see high debt costs retired but that is difficult when company is purportedly enjoying high growth. Interim financials will be helpful. you are not going to eliminate the short sellers. Appealing to insitiution holders is definately appealing. IPO market is still in the dead money zone for now. Baby steps it appears which is fine by me. Only about 25% of my profits are LT as of now.
We'll see if that was a wise move. Down 25% on no news recently (excpet perhaps rice demand in India). I suspect the financials will follow in the next 60 days although I have not spoken with anyone at the company nor would they disclose a time frame had I spoken with them. Should earnings be in the realm of $1.80 we could see a jump back over $14 based on the current PE. $14 is a magic number........... if can hold through the close I believe aNFI has another 5-15% up-side. Since growth YOY was in the 40% range, earnings of $1.80 is not unrealistic.
I don't understand rice production and how it could be down. Honestly I am married to a latin and we hang around lots of latin people. They eat rice and lots of it. Every food event has rice. My wifes family eats rice for breakfast, lunch and dinner. I don't care for rice nor does my son but my daughter eats lots of rice. I am assuming most countries that eat rice as a staple will continue to eat rice as a staple. It is cheap and plentiful and is easy to grow. Most of those populations are growing populations and rice consumption will continue to grow. "Seeking Alpha" can report whatever they want. I know what I know and I see rice on the stove each and every day. Rice is gluten free. While it is a starch, it is considered to be the best choice for grains asd it is considered less harmful. rice is also milled (white rice) which makes it more digestable.
I am guessing with the low float there are several people making good money trading. When you have a substantial rise in the stock price and cn't close above 14, I am sure there are the sellers on resistance. at the same time, many of the traders are not long term short. they get their 5-10% and take profits. let's face it, ANFI has some volitility and is an excellent position to day trade. Why would not short traders take profits after a doble digit decline in share price and buy in at a discount?
The fundamentals are still there and the PE is very attractive. A positive earnings report would be sweet or a refi deal which would improve margins. Other thatn that, not much to move ANFI unless short covering.
Mostly all true. Since can't close above 14 shorts move in at that level knowing they can cover below 13 and so goes the trend over and over again. I expect to see shorts covering again next week and move back into upper 13 range. The overseas ownership is egotistical (if you listened to past interviews). The public ownership is in a hopeless position and majority ownership motivated by their interest as they control. What and when the release is TBD. I'm just betting on the chart now.