read the qtr earnings transcript - analyst day is Sept 11. Also, they did not include long term operating model in the last slide deck. Now, it may be that they were fearful of being ridiculed or, are actually revising it.
JDSU may have been wise not pursuing low margin deals like FNSR did. Eventually, those low margin products move to 2nd tier vendors who are willing to offer them at even lower margins.
JDSU is expected to present a new operating model next week at analyst day - lets see how that is received by the street.
FNSR has started sounding like JDSU. Beat but guide down. I don't understand why the EPS is down if wireless sales are slow next quarter. wireless was supposed to be below corporate level, was expecting higher EPS.
I understand that Kisner was way off with 7.50 price target and probably caused a lot of losses for FNSR shareholders but if you had followed the commentary coming out of Intel and Facebook - you would have been worried too. BTW, there are still people who believe that Silicon Photonics will play a role in 100G data-center upgrades. Its hard to predict when that will happen but it will impact optical component vendors.
I can't fault Kisner on this - what surprises me is the weakness, down almost 7% on a downgrade - wow, maybe the whole sector is rotten, i.e. EPS growth challenged.
You are right - struggling smaller players like OCLR, NPTN will have to either be absorbed or, go under for pricing to stabilize. That is just the nature of business. I am not predicting FNSR back at 25 after earnings but I do think this may be time to start accumulating as FNSR is a very stable company and along with JDSU will be around while smaller players may go under.
The primary reason for FNSR Gross Margin pressures are CPRI deployment (fronthaul) at 3 and 6G rates. I think many of these locations will be upgraded soon to 10G and beyond (multiple antenna support). NG-PON2 specifically supports 40G for fronthaul applications. I don't think FNSR margin pressure can last too long. Thursday will be interesting...
as long as there is no slowdown in datacenters and LTE buildouts - Finisar will continue to do well.
Jefferies has been a little sketchy - his upgrades and downgrades always seems to be poorly timed. Folks on this board may remember his rants on SiPhotonics.
Lets see if Finisar manages to close above 20
just look at the airlines - transportation industry is doing very well.
if nothing else, HTZ should also benefit from the positive sentiment in this sector.
you can choose to not buy the stock - but don't short this rocket. Too many hedgies are in this and it will keep recovering and going higher until the sentiment changes
what rubbish - why should SEC investigate? FEYE did not mis-represent any facts. Folks who wanted to believe Cramer non-sense were buying it at nosebleed levels. Of course, the insiders knew and were bailing out as fast as possible.
Go read the Morgan Stanley note - it attempts to deconstruct last qtr results and even the pro's are having a touch time.
The absolutely funny line is that based on 2019 cash flow .. ha ha ... and assuming no further stock dilution ... umm sure... FEYE can be $15 (bear case) or, $65 (bull case). Yes, that is a 2019 prediction. Let me go further and make this prediction - FEYE will trade in single digits when market correction happens.
I really don't understand why you are finding it hard to believe that FEYE remains an easy short.
Have you looked at their 10Q? FEYE is going to be bleeding red for ever - they are going to run out of cash. It's a complete BS company. FEYE would lose money even if they zero out sales/marketing AND G/A expenses. This is not expected to change even next year. So what are they going to do? You guessed it - coming soon - another secondary offering... more dilution and the game goes on. Their only hope is to rope in a bigger sucker and be acquired. But that will happen at a much lower price.
that is not really a sell I think - its just distribution and accounting. Actual selling will drag down the price even further in the short term.