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Oclaro, Inc. Message Board

o.investor 32 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 21, 2014 3:29 PM Member since: Apr 20, 2009
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  • Reply to

    $17 Billion Debt guys

    by drmlk3 Aug 21, 2014 3:19 PM
    o.investor o.investor Aug 21, 2014 3:29 PM Flag

    that is complete rubbish - do some research.

  • too many retail shorts trapped waiting to be squeezed.

    HTZ is rock solid @30 - big money backing the stock

  • Reply to

    P/E and debt question?

    by psuskifan Aug 20, 2014 4:12 PM
    o.investor o.investor Aug 20, 2014 4:39 PM Flag

    just look at the airlines - transportation industry is doing very well.

    if nothing else, HTZ should also benefit from the positive sentiment in this sector.

    you can choose to not buy the stock - but don't short this rocket. Too many hedgies are in this and it will keep recovering and going higher until the sentiment changes

  • Reply to

    easiest short ever

    by o.investor Aug 19, 2014 12:01 PM
    o.investor o.investor Aug 19, 2014 5:05 PM Flag

    what rubbish - why should SEC investigate? FEYE did not mis-represent any facts. Folks who wanted to believe Cramer non-sense were buying it at nosebleed levels. Of course, the insiders knew and were bailing out as fast as possible.

    Go read the Morgan Stanley note - it attempts to deconstruct last qtr results and even the pro's are having a touch time.

    The absolutely funny line is that based on 2019 cash flow .. ha ha ... and assuming no further stock dilution ... umm sure... FEYE can be $15 (bear case) or, $65 (bull case). Yes, that is a 2019 prediction. Let me go further and make this prediction - FEYE will trade in single digits when market correction happens.

  • Reply to

    easiest short ever

    by o.investor Aug 19, 2014 12:01 PM
    o.investor o.investor Aug 19, 2014 4:40 PM Flag

    I really don't understand why you are finding it hard to believe that FEYE remains an easy short.

    Have you looked at their 10Q? FEYE is going to be bleeding red for ever - they are going to run out of cash. It's a complete BS company. FEYE would lose money even if they zero out sales/marketing AND G/A expenses. This is not expected to change even next year. So what are they going to do? You guessed it - coming soon - another secondary offering... more dilution and the game goes on. Their only hope is to rope in a bigger sucker and be acquired. But that will happen at a much lower price.

  • o.investor o.investor Aug 19, 2014 12:40 PM Flag

    that is not really a sell I think - its just distribution and accounting. Actual selling will drag down the price even further in the short term.

  • o.investor by o.investor Aug 19, 2014 12:01 PM Flag

    next stop 20 -

  • Reply to

    MM being shopped?

    by o.investor Aug 15, 2014 2:05 PM
    o.investor o.investor Aug 19, 2014 10:50 AM Flag

    funny... very funny... well at least I hope you were trying to be funny

  • Reply to

    MM being shopped?

    by o.investor Aug 15, 2014 2:05 PM
    o.investor o.investor Aug 19, 2014 12:41 AM Flag

    don't worry about day to day - see AppNexus and Alibaba connection.

  • o.investor by o.investor Aug 15, 2014 2:05 PM Flag

    Not hiring a new CFO is a sign that MM is being shopped.

    There might not be much of a premium but I would expect at least $5. In any case, more upside than downside if OpEx is managed well.

    What was the reasoning for buying Jumptap? that seems to have been disastrous...

  • Reply to

    Guidance

    by riverhigh22 Aug 13, 2014 1:27 AM
    o.investor o.investor Aug 13, 2014 11:36 AM Flag

    look at the bright side - this management is now toast! they have lost all credibility with the street. They had forecast 3D rebound next 2 qtrs and now that is fading fast. Jefferies had floated the idea of Apple TV with 3D and maybe that project was scrapped... who knows.

    If there ever was an opportunity for PE to sweep in and pick good assets at bargain price - this is it. Look at their Chairman - he is a PE guy.

    No point in buying this today but I will be a nibbler below 10.5. Looking at the Jan 2015 Put trades I think you will see some action before end of this year.

  • Reply to

    Sept Analyst Day - new spin coming

    by o.investor Aug 12, 2014 2:41 PM
    o.investor o.investor Aug 12, 2014 7:52 PM Flag

    JDSU issues conservative guidance to avoid negative surprise before analyst day. It would be worth buying it few days before analyst day.

    At least their gross margin improvement will be seen as net positive... they have managed to stay away from low margin business that has devastated for NPTN and OCLR...

  • If the management is going to miss earnings or, revenue or, guidance yet again - they might as well mail in their resignations. But anything is possible with these geniuses.

  • o.investor by o.investor Aug 12, 2014 9:25 AM Flag

    this is all early 2013 products probably being cleared at fire-sale prices

    more negative than positive - just look at the short interest rising in MRVL... that tells you what the street thinks of this company

  • Reply to

    Reversal

    by lag7100 Jul 28, 2014 3:20 PM
    o.investor o.investor Jul 28, 2014 4:19 PM Flag

    I think another downgrade may be in the works - at least last couple of times when MRVL showed signs of reversal on big volume, it was a red herring...

    Anyway, yearly chart shows bottoming action around 13, look out below if that does not hold.

  • o.investor by o.investor Jul 25, 2014 2:55 PM Flag

    look out - under 13 in the offing

    this company is floundering without a strategy. PXA 1928 was announced at MWC yet not a single design win.

  • Reply to

    Thanks Oppy

    by o.investor Jul 9, 2014 1:27 PM
    o.investor o.investor Jul 10, 2014 12:06 AM Flag

    I am short term bearish - not foolish... its unlikely to break below 10. It held (barely) SMA 200 today.

    I was long MRVL before but sentiment has clearly changed post results. I don't know if this is manipulation but right now companies are being rewarded for taking slimming down effort and focusing on established strengths.

    - BRCM shedding cellular and focusing on networking/cellular
    - TXN shedding cellular and focusing on Analog
    - NVDA curtailing mobility and focusing on graphics/processors

    unfortunately MRVL doesn't have that luxury and also being a founder driven company they are known to not admit defeat easily. However, they are facing QCOM/Mediatek/Intel headwind and not making progress as rapidly as was expected in mobility. If you talk to MRVL engineers you will realize that they were fantastically situated with RIMM, PALM, MOTOROLA after acquiring X-Scale business from Intel but MRVL management starved R&D rather than aggressively developing cellular modems and integrating with AP.

  • Reply to

    Thanks Oppy

    by o.investor Jul 9, 2014 1:27 PM
    o.investor o.investor Jul 9, 2014 2:58 PM Flag

    yeah - keep dreaming, if they could settle CMU - they would have done that a year ago. CMU is in no hurry now.

    There is no upside, only downside... will cover in 12-13 range.

    - CMU litigation
    - HDD decline
    - Flash Controller moving inhouse at flash manufacturers
    - Mobile strategy in tatters
    - Networking segment losing market share and lagging competition
    - Connectivity losing market share

  • o.investor by o.investor Jul 9, 2014 1:27 PM Flag

    I was sweating my short position. Did they announce a price target? They previously had MRVL at Hold and $9 price target. I wonder if they lowered the price target or, simply downgraded the stock to Sell.

  • even though short interest is down to all time low - can't blame this in short manipulation. It can only mean that apart from KKR and Pantas, Greenlight is also dumping stock.

    Given Marvell's shady past - other institutional investors are shying away from this stock.

OCLR
1.76+0.03(+1.73%)Aug 22 3:59 PMEDT

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