fair point -
I wonder how low Natural Gas will go as MHR is now largely a NG company but with heavy debt. I can't figure out their 2015 cash flow to really understand common outlook.
hmm... you don't consider 9.75% bonds yielding 18+% distress? Also, look at the hybrid debt (the preferred) they have been plummeting since S&P downgrade.
Yes, market is pricing MHR for a BK restructuring now - Eureka Hunter IPO is not going to happen anytime soon and MHR will have a hard time unloading their Bakken assets for anything meaningful.
Has relational decided to throw in the towel. This is unreal - I have no doubt now that its game over for MHR.
I really bought into the BS of MHR having made the smart move of getting out of Oil and focused on NG. In the end, it didn't seem to matter - if you are a lilliputian energy player, its game over.
Took a massive loss on this one...
Something does look amiss on slide 7.
I wonder if Eureka Hunter revenue was left out by mistake. How can they have such a huge miss ~$80M and not pre-announce it much earlier. Also, if they were hedged properly, their revenue cannot be a measly $25M in Q4 2014.
stop posting such nonsense - its not savings if it comes from future dividends. You should worry about cash flow and earnings in future. All the analyst estimates were based on $100 Oil, now that $50 is in sight - what will earnings look like.
but much larger capex is required for UDW oil as compared to Shale. If Oil stays at this level, all new drilling/exploration will stop. As production declines, prices rise - a new cycle will begin... for now, its the worst sector to invest in.
I think buying before Jan/Feb 2015 is madness. If anything, buy a very small position so its on your radar.
This stock is not going anywhere quick but down for now. I hope the company is not foolish to start buyback here. They need to wait for Oil to bottom. It tested $60 today. It may very well break and test $50 early next year...
I am sure at some point many miners (and not just juniors) will go belly up or, start fire sale.
I have noticed that when a sizable physical seller comes, Gold crashes (see Ukraine in Nov and Gold at 1130) - now just imagine if Venezuela or, Russia start selling... ouch!
There is no stopping Oil testing $50 and Gold testing $1000
Just look at other commodities like copper, iron-ore etc. Don't expect a bounce any time soon on any drillers for a long time.
some courageous buyer took out my stop loss order at 1.47. I guess congratulations are in order for your astute buy. I hope you have saved enough to buy Tums, Pepcid or whatever your choice of Antacid is. I had paired my MM long position with FUEL short position and thanks to your courageous action, I am now closing my FUEL short position at all time low. I have broken even on my trade. I wish you luck with your MM position.
its not a nice short here - other than day trades. It was a nice short in 30s but have at it...
its not clear that they are actually diluting shares - they have 186K in treasury, they may be using from that pile. Though it is curious to what extent they are desperate to preserve cash.
You can forget about buyback happening any time soon...
of course they can't and I am not implying that Saudi can meet current worldwide demand. I am just stating that the current trend is lower oil. If there is another recession (and commodity data points to that) we could have the perfect storm where at least for a short term oil trades much lower. Usual panic will grip the market and SDRL will trade much lower.
I also believe that if $80 level can be regained, SDRL will trade back to high teens or, even 20+. But removing 1-2 Million/Day supply without OPEC cooperation will not be easy.
How will SDRL trade if Crude breaks $50 and trades back at 2008 lows - its looking like a real possibility. There is no reason for Crude to trade at this level if the cost of Saudi Production is less than $10.