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Himax Technologies, Inc. Message Board

o.investor 6 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 25, 2015 11:00 PM Member since: Apr 20, 2009
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  • o.investor o.investor Aug 25, 2015 11:00 PM Flag

    You are asking the wrong question - I would suggest you go back and read the transcript from last qtr earnings. SUNE needs VSLR deal to keep playing the shell game. They are counting on VSLR deal to grow TERP dividend. Haven't you heard the famous 40X multiplier that SUNE CFO keeps touting to justify valuations.

  • Reply to

    Question

    by b090952 Aug 25, 2015 12:51 PM
    o.investor o.investor Aug 25, 2015 12:59 PM Flag

    I think you answered your own question, this is as high as its gonna get. Though looking at the up and down volume, I think this is liquidation action and not just shorting. Each failed rally makes subsequent rallies ever harder as nervous nellies want out at breakeven. That is why usually a big event is needed to shake things up and staunch the bleeding - like a big investor e.g. Buffet or, Icahn taking a significant stake. Soros used to be like that but not anymore.

  • Reply to

    A modest suggestion regarding SunEdison

    by nomdekb Aug 25, 2015 12:13 PM
    o.investor o.investor Aug 25, 2015 12:53 PM Flag

    so assuming you are not an employee or affiliated with SUNE - what gives you the confidence that SUNE even has a successful model. Forget about Einhorn sum of parts presentation - that is out of the window. A stock does not lose 70% without a fatal flaw and I think the fatal flaw has been overpaying for assets financed by debt. They would have been smart to use their stock but I think sellers were smart and wanted cold hard cash.

  • o.investor by o.investor Aug 25, 2015 12:48 PM Flag

    Having burnt most big hedge funds, I can't see how this stock stays at this level. I would have liked to believe in the story but reality has set in. When the stock is sold on sector and market rally, guess what happens when the market tanks.

    Just look at GLBL IPO performance, TERP desperation of paying dividends from the money that it doesn't have - yes, they are dipping in their cash reserves to pay dividends. What a joke? if you have excess cash - pay down debt and not dividends - see what happened to all the MLP's playing this game last year.

  • Reply to

    What does SUNE actually do?

    by o.investor Aug 25, 2015 11:41 AM
    o.investor o.investor Aug 25, 2015 11:56 AM Flag

    ok - so they are a developer without any defenses. I think SPWR and FSLR are much better positioned as a developer. Even SCTY with Silveo acquisition have a path towards deep moats.

    and don't even get me started on PPA and associated risks. Its just not a profitable business, great for charity work.

  • I don't know why SUNE gets lumped in as a technology player. They don't make any R&D investments and in reality it looks like a green boondoggle bailout for other investors.

    They certainly don't make their own solar panels (ala SPWR, FSLR). They are great in raising debt and playing financial games. If the dang business of generating solar electricity was so appealing and profitable - there would be no reason to have yieldco's and warehouses etc. its just nonsense. They would have a straightforward balance sheet with operating and long lived assets and liabilities.

    First Wind which failed in its IPO for $1.5B was bailed out at 2x by SUNE. They are now attempting the same with pathetic 3rd string player - Vivint. In UK, MarkGroup has terrible reputation for fleecing customers with insulation projects. All that liability is now transferred to SUNE.

    All in all, this is a terrible Wall Street experiment and in the end will collapse under its own debt. Equity is worth zero.

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