MSI is building LNG export terminal. They need midstream assets and will buyout rest of Eureka Hunter.
Don't think the price will be much more than $500M but it will give MHR some breathing room and hope for Nat Gas to move back up above $3. They can also suspend dividends on MHR-C, D and E and save some cash.
1. saw news item about LCRA trying to break wind contract it signed with E.ON, tat will send shudders if you are banking on PPA/yieldco's
2. China not paying subsidies, Trina is suffering from this - reflects GLBL performance
SUNE reminds me of Citibank just before mortgage crisis. Citibank bought into their own BS and decided to hold on to sub-prime originations rather than offloading ala Goldman Sachs. SunEdison is doing the same with "retained MW", if they were smart they would jettison these worthless asset to the first sucker that wanted it.
Not going to happen - Cramer has learned his lesson after Bear Stearns debacle (fwiw, I don't think he was telling folks to buy Bear stock. He was only saying that the money help in Bear accounts was safe and it was). He will not risk a speculative play with weak fundamentals on his show. He will parade PANW, CRM etc. low risk plays.
and CEO, CFO still keep their jobs? Very unlikely, they have spent a lot of capital on selling this deal to wall street. Unraveling of this deal can only happen with CEO/CFO walking the proverbial plank (and laughing all the way to the bank)
you are an honest and grounded man, it can only be held as a speculative play - you may see a quick 100% pop one of these days that again fizzles like last couple of times. Its not an investment but gambling play. Of course, all bets are off if Natural Gas again goes crazy but that seems unlikely.
covering my short on SUNE here, its only temporary.
I suspect SUNE may be walking away from VSLR acquisition and that will provide a bounce but will short again at higher price. Its like an ATM.
this was a scam from get go. Feel sorry for the folks who bought into the common stock and did not get out.
The writing was on the wall when the company keeps making lofty promises and doesn't deliver...
actually this is terrible news - CEO insider buy means that VSLR deal is still on. The only hope for SUNE to bounce was to kill the VSLR deal. But now that the insiders are buying, that means that there is no chance of VSLR deal being scuttled.
I think with VSLR buy and residential market entry - SUNE is destined to go to zero. Mark my words.
You are asking the wrong question - I would suggest you go back and read the transcript from last qtr earnings. SUNE needs VSLR deal to keep playing the shell game. They are counting on VSLR deal to grow TERP dividend. Haven't you heard the famous 40X multiplier that SUNE CFO keeps touting to justify valuations.
I think you answered your own question, this is as high as its gonna get. Though looking at the up and down volume, I think this is liquidation action and not just shorting. Each failed rally makes subsequent rallies ever harder as nervous nellies want out at breakeven. That is why usually a big event is needed to shake things up and staunch the bleeding - like a big investor e.g. Buffet or, Icahn taking a significant stake. Soros used to be like that but not anymore.
so assuming you are not an employee or affiliated with SUNE - what gives you the confidence that SUNE even has a successful model. Forget about Einhorn sum of parts presentation - that is out of the window. A stock does not lose 70% without a fatal flaw and I think the fatal flaw has been overpaying for assets financed by debt. They would have been smart to use their stock but I think sellers were smart and wanted cold hard cash.
Having burnt most big hedge funds, I can't see how this stock stays at this level. I would have liked to believe in the story but reality has set in. When the stock is sold on sector and market rally, guess what happens when the market tanks.
Just look at GLBL IPO performance, TERP desperation of paying dividends from the money that it doesn't have - yes, they are dipping in their cash reserves to pay dividends. What a joke? if you have excess cash - pay down debt and not dividends - see what happened to all the MLP's playing this game last year.
ok - so they are a developer without any defenses. I think SPWR and FSLR are much better positioned as a developer. Even SCTY with Silveo acquisition have a path towards deep moats.
and don't even get me started on PPA and associated risks. Its just not a profitable business, great for charity work.
I don't know why SUNE gets lumped in as a technology player. They don't make any R&D investments and in reality it looks like a green boondoggle bailout for other investors.
They certainly don't make their own solar panels (ala SPWR, FSLR). They are great in raising debt and playing financial games. If the dang business of generating solar electricity was so appealing and profitable - there would be no reason to have yieldco's and warehouses etc. its just nonsense. They would have a straightforward balance sheet with operating and long lived assets and liabilities.
First Wind which failed in its IPO for $1.5B was bailed out at 2x by SUNE. They are now attempting the same with pathetic 3rd string player - Vivint. In UK, MarkGroup has terrible reputation for fleecing customers with insulation projects. All that liability is now transferred to SUNE.
All in all, this is a terrible Wall Street experiment and in the end will collapse under its own debt. Equity is worth zero.
fair point -
I wonder how low Natural Gas will go as MHR is now largely a NG company but with heavy debt. I can't figure out their 2015 cash flow to really understand common outlook.
hmm... you don't consider 9.75% bonds yielding 18+% distress? Also, look at the hybrid debt (the preferred) they have been plummeting since S&P downgrade.
Yes, market is pricing MHR for a BK restructuring now - Eureka Hunter IPO is not going to happen anytime soon and MHR will have a hard time unloading their Bakken assets for anything meaningful.