i hope you made a ton of money shorting FIO - it has been a juicy one to short on every surge in 2013.
logically, 2014 should be good for IT spending but FIO has other problems that need to be solved
Report that Apple Reno solar powered Data Center is near completion. Maybe this kicks in another Apple flash buying cycle. FIO on watch list if it breaks 9 on upside.
Check GigaOm for Apple news
and I am sure very frustrating for longs
I don't think FIO tax loss selling is close to being over. Maybe we will see less than 50% institutional holding.
its very hard to predict a bounce with FIO - just look at YTD chart. Every bounce is sold and sold hard. Wall Street is a creature of habit - this stock can easily go down another few bucks or, it can have a short term bounce to 9-10 level.
I just wouldn't want to be short FIO at this stage - as storage deals are being made left and right. Today's green close was courtesy or some short covering.
given spate of executive departure I think there is at least 5M of FIO stock for sale. Imagine all the vested options that executives are trying to off load before they expire. ex-insider sales along with tax loss selling will keep downward pressure on FIO unless they either pre-announce good results (highly unlikely given all the lawsuits) or, announce significant deal news, analyst upgrades etc.
unlike FIO, at least VMEM board had the guts to fire the CEO and thus no severance package.
Very telling that FIO traded down as VMEM was plummeting but there is no relief rally in FIO, i.e. FIO troubles are not as easily fixable as VMEM.
ha ha - you are reading from the company script
at $8/GB, yes that's what iodrive costs, one only uses it for latency sensitive applications.
you get $.5/GB mass storage for everything else and that trend will not change no matter how many tutorials FIO does and Woz is paraded around. Its just economics.
I am open to education - how large do you think the true addressable market for FIO is?
I understand the IO part and low latency but have you seen the trend of 100G in data center. PCIe flash will remain a niche - it was a nice stop-gap for its time but I don't think this in itself can lead to a very big addressable market for FIO.
The stock is still good for trading both long and short
clearly the market is voting otherwise...
what product does FIO beat Nimble with? iocontrol ? the revenue on iocontrol is so small that they refuse to even report it.
Good luck with your FIO investment. Its only good for a trade both long and short - it should not be treated as an investment.
yes, they make flash storage - actually only PCIe direct-attached kind (very niche market) and no they don't have a factory for NAND flash storage. They buy it just like every other storage maker. AFAIK only MU, Sandisk, Samsung, Toshiba, Intel and Hynix have NAND factories. I am sure there are other smaller ones but only a few 20nm NAND makers.
that was a joke - they acquired Nexgen AND THEN realized that if they start selling boxes - they can say goodbye to OEM relationships. Why would HP, DELL etc. sell iodrive in their servers if FIO is competing on another front.
They tried to save face by re-positioning it as a reseller only SMB solution. Really... and you paid $120M in cash for what? you could have achieved the same with a partnership approach.
I am not slagging FIO as a bad company, its just a mis-understood company, over-hyped company. They had a unique idea early on and they have cashed it in big time.
what does Fusion-IO have to do with flash storage? they don't make flash memory... you should buy MU or, SNDK if you want flash growth exposure. Fusion-IO is a software company pretending to be a threat to EMC, NTAP etc.
Heck buy Nimble if you want storage exposure - at least they are a systems company.
well its definitely worth buying as a speculative play but if you research the company you will realize that the TAM for this company is actually quite small. They are NOT a mass storage company ala EMC or, NTAP etc. Also, things were very very different when they spiked from 15 to 37.
They are basically a simple FPGA and related software (VSL layer) designed to address fast database access. Thats it - no mass storage applications can emerge from this.
They are struggling with diversifying beyond that niche. The new CEO has made matters worse by focusing on OEM only approach. This is a disaster in the making. OEMs will squeeze the margins to commodity level - 20 to 30%.
I laugh at speculation that Seagate could acquire Fusion-IO - for what? VSL layer. I am sure STX has better in-house flash controllers or, they can string a solution with MRVL, LSI controllers.
don't be in a rush to buy - there is too much persistent selling and no bottom in sight. Better to short this on spikes than to go long. Its a broken company with no confidence in management.
stock has behaved well after the morning swoon. Its either short covering or, news related to dell world that starts tomorrow. I still think Dell would be interested in buying at some point.