They could have slashed the dividend by 75% and still maintain a 5% yield on a $20 stock. I think the market had already priced that in and the stock would have stabilized at that level. If they were confident of keeping $4 dividend through end of 2015. They could have committed to a $1 dividend through 2018 and the stock price would have been fine as I don't think many funds would have dumped at this rate. But going to 0 has caused a panic. Who would want to hold on to worthless common if it doesn't have any yield. The rotation from yield investor to value investor is a grind.
just remember if you are betting it all on Seadrill that common stock could very well go to zero and no one will lose any sleep. Without dividend, no one in their right mind would want to own common stock of a highly leveraged, high risk company. Forget where the stock traded in good times, this is unusual time and the stunt pulled by management with "suspending" dividends is a sign of unusual stress.
looking for INVN to break 14.5 to buy
amazing stats - INVN has never beaten estimates in its public history. Lets see how things work out with new CFO.
BTW, the MEMS market will grow huge. The question is whether INVN will keep pace.
There is no stopping Oil testing $50 and Gold testing $1000
Just look at other commodities like copper, iron-ore etc. Don't expect a bounce any time soon on any drillers for a long time.
relentless selling pressure - it broke through 14 support. Unless something changes quick (buyback, buyout rumors etc.) this is headed straight to next support level around 10.
buying 10% is not meaningful support especially when 50% or more income investors are trying to get out and new shorter horizon weaker "value" buyers are stepping up.
Analysts tried to pin management on price level considered attractive for buyback but that was met with silence...
Also, death cross on weekly charts -
but much larger capex is required for UDW oil as compared to Shale. If Oil stays at this level, all new drilling/exploration will stop. As production declines, prices rise - a new cycle will begin... for now, its the worst sector to invest in.
I am not defending management - but no one saw possibility of $50 WTI a few months back. Now that the trend has been established. One much get realistic. Throw out all earnings projections as capex will scale back and old contracts will have to be renegotiated at much lower rates.
Oil sector has been like the telecom sector in the 90s - hugely leveraged, high risk companies. It did not end well for a number of CLECs (actually all went bellyup or were acquired in bk)... and unfortunately its not going to end well for a number of drillers either.
technically not true as the dividend would have been increased as share count shrunk with buybacks - so more like 2.5 years but who's counting... I am now thinking that maybe SDRL is going straight to zero... a company does not "suspend" dividend overnight without some serious loss of street confidence. This buyback talk is rubbish as you will have to wait 3 months to find out if any buyback has actually happened.
Has relational decided to throw in the towel. This is unreal - I have no doubt now that its game over for MHR.
I really bought into the BS of MHR having made the smart move of getting out of Oil and focused on NG. In the end, it didn't seem to matter - if you are a lilliputian energy player, its game over.
Took a massive loss on this one...
look at all the headwinds facing this stock right now - these are just facts.
1. Apple margin squeeze... just ask CRUS what it is like to have all eggs in one basket
2. Samsung is facing headwinds in smartphone sales
3. Very Poor Management execution record - INVN has never beat expectations, either met or, missed
4. Inventory build-up and write-off also reflects poor management execution (management burning up cash...)
5. No near term wearable catalyst....
In my experience stocks hitting 52 week low's around year-end do not fare well because of tax loss selling.
some courageous buyer took out my stop loss order at 1.47. I guess congratulations are in order for your astute buy. I hope you have saved enough to buy Tums, Pepcid or whatever your choice of Antacid is. I had paired my MM long position with FUEL short position and thanks to your courageous action, I am now closing my FUEL short position at all time low. I have broken even on my trade. I wish you luck with your MM position.
How will SDRL trade if Crude breaks $50 and trades back at 2008 lows - its looking like a real possibility. There is no reason for Crude to trade at this level if the cost of Saudi Production is less than $10.
hmm... you don't consider 9.75% bonds yielding 18+% distress? Also, look at the hybrid debt (the preferred) they have been plummeting since S&P downgrade.
Yes, market is pricing MHR for a BK restructuring now - Eureka Hunter IPO is not going to happen anytime soon and MHR will have a hard time unloading their Bakken assets for anything meaningful.