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Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

o08o.ugh64w 185 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 18, 2014 12:13 PM Member since: May 13, 2011
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  • Reply to

    Time to purchase ONB shares

    by o08o.ugh64w Feb 10, 2014 9:26 PM
    o08o.ugh64w o08o.ugh64w Feb 12, 2014 9:26 AM Flag

    How many new ids will you create?

  • "lower average prices received from health care insurers due to their increased focus on controlling health care costs as well as more rigorous scrutiny by insurers of reimbursement requests for a wide range of medical devices and other health care products"

    “We continued to see pressure on our revenues in the second quarter of fiscal 2014 driven by uncertainty surrounding health care reform and the Affordable Care Act combined with ongoing efforts by health insurers to control costs. "

    Environment will continue to be challenging. Company will straddle breakeven at best.

    Just another dead cat bounce this morning. Look at the stock chart from last year - the same is coming over the next 6 months.

    Price target = $1.30

  • o08o.ugh64w by o08o.ugh64w Feb 10, 2014 9:26 PM Flag

    Way undervalued at current price.

    Seeking Alpha idiot author has his head screwed on backwards - but that's fine, it's what makes a market and enables amateurs to hand over their hard-earned money to professionals...because they actually read and believe what those neophytes write. Use your own head, do your own research, and reach your own conclusions. The SA author beats up ONB, but pumps his own NBBC which is quite overvalued.

    Though implied value of UBMI deal is now a bit lower than a couple weeks ago, it is still a good arbitrage opportunity if shares are being tossed. I am buying UBMI below $11.65 and ONB below $13.40. By the time the deal closes, ONB shares will be back at/above $15, which, barring any unforeseen circumstances, should value UBMI shares at/above $13.

    Six months from now ONB is going to be hitting new 52 week highs as these mergers progress and sales/profits begin to rise.

    Interest rates will not be as low as they currently are forever. Once rates do move up, earnings will skyrocket, along with the share price. The biggest decision for ONB is going to be whether to remain independent and focus on its own growth, or to accept a buyout by one of the TBTF banks.

    In the mean time, sit back, collect a really nice dividend that was just increased, and know that the share repurchase is still in place.

    Take advantage of those who do not have the conviction to act on what is perfectly clear. If the shares continue lower, buy more and reap bigger benefits.

  • Reply to

    Earnings just ok, not dazzling

    by o08o.ugh64w Jan 28, 2014 4:17 PM
    o08o.ugh64w o08o.ugh64w Feb 10, 2014 10:14 AM Flag

    "Could see $2.10 again before heading higher."

    as stated

  • Reply to

    Price Target = $1.30

    by o08o.ugh64w Jan 28, 2014 10:11 AM
    o08o.ugh64w o08o.ugh64w Feb 10, 2014 9:53 AM Flag

    "How the Hel_ did it ever run up to 3.40?"

    Look in the mirror - novice "investors" like yourself who trade on headlines and momentum with no understanding of the company, business, or product.

  • Reply to

    Buyback now at $3.81

    by o08o.ugh64w Jan 23, 2014 9:53 AM
    o08o.ugh64w o08o.ugh64w Jan 31, 2014 9:22 AM Flag

    Good catch

  • Reply to

    Buyback now at $3.81

    by o08o.ugh64w Jan 23, 2014 9:53 AM
    o08o.ugh64w o08o.ugh64w Jan 30, 2014 9:35 PM Flag

    "So this is a way to gain some cash. However, if they thought the stock was going to move up significantly in the near future, maybe they would forego the case now, but for the CEO and his family what is being sold is a very small percentage of their entire holdings."

    I think you have hit upon a key point here.

    An argument can be made that he is having the company buy back his shares to raise money so he has enough to make an offer for the remaining shares in the float.

    In any case, whether it is his shares being repurchased, or shares from the public float it is reducing the outstanding shares and as profits come over the next few quarters this will only further increase EPS.

    From a shareholder perspective, let the company repurchase his shares at prices below $4 - that many more shares that can be repurchased. We do see the bid show up for the 10k shares, so any shareholder is able to unload their shares should they so choose.

  • o08o.ugh64w by o08o.ugh64w Jan 30, 2014 11:06 AM Flag

    "Net income totaled $7.5 million for the fourth quarter of 2013, compared to $943 thousand for the same period of 2012. The significant increase in earnings was primarily a result of the reversal of the valuation allowance on net deferred tax assets which decreased income tax expense by $4.8 million. In addition, the Company recorded a recovery of loan losses totaling $3.0 million, "

    So, if net income was $7.5 million where $4.8 million was the valuation allowance/tax credit and $3.0 million was recovery of loan losses, what was operating income for the quarter? Look's like a loss to me.

  • Reply to

    Price Target = $1.30

    by o08o.ugh64w Jan 28, 2014 10:11 AM
    o08o.ugh64w o08o.ugh64w Jan 30, 2014 10:03 AM Flag

    Maybe $1.40s today?

  • Reply to

    We've been here before ...

    by o08o.ugh64w Jan 17, 2014 7:07 PM
    o08o.ugh64w o08o.ugh64w Jan 29, 2014 5:26 PM Flag

    One other thing - do you like banks? I've done extremely well with smaller community/regional banks this past year as the valuations were all screwed up while their earnings and asset quality was strengthening. My big winner was UBMI - was acquiring down in the $5s mid-year, doubled up when tax selling took place last month, then first week of this month they got a buyout and shares jumped to $12.50. I'm totally out of it now since I had well over 100% gain in just 6 months.

    Anyhow, have a look at CSBB and BVA - both are extremely low floaters. CSBB simply has good earnings/growth, financials, good insider buying, pays a very decent/stable dividend which has room to grow. Proper valuation is probably 50% higher than the stock price. Could very well be a takeover candidate in 2014.

    BVA is story stock/bank/company. Go read the last quarterly filing and browse the website of the holding company. They've been profitable past three quarters, are doing good now, and are about to begin their growth plan. The guys who created this are all industry veterans. This is a bank currently trading over 15% below tangible book value - that is unheard of for a bank. Go look at what the enterprise value is - a joke. This will be a big winner - currently trading near lows - a few small sell orders can push it lower. Even buys - the market maker just orders it to take it lower. You buy 1000 shares at the ask, he will follow it immediately with 100 sell at the bid. Eventually it will break higher as well.

    Anyhow, if you do like banks, and ones that are financially in good shape and poised for growth, check those out.

  • Reply to

    We've been here before ...

    by o08o.ugh64w Jan 17, 2014 7:07 PM
    o08o.ugh64w o08o.ugh64w Jan 29, 2014 4:35 PM Flag

    Hey!

    You know this is my non-nip id...just try to keep less desirables from giving me a hard time all over the place.

    I'm glad you have shares of ULBI - I have no idea when this will bust out, but it will. This is one of my top holdings and people just like to ignore it - which is fine by me. Lots of people must have gotten burned in the past seeing the way it trades. The shares will easily double, probably triple from here once a couple good quarters are announced. I'm sure you like the financials as much as I do. Add on the insider ownership/purchasing and there isn't much not to like. ULBI has excellent products, really good customer acceptance of new product introductions, and they've done well over the past 6 to 9 months considering the state of things. Now with the government purse strings loosening, you just know that there's additional government money flowing to them. Just a matter of when it hits the bottom line this year. There are also new product announcements coming I'm sure.

    Anyhow, this one you can safely sit onand not worry about - but try not to get caught up in the share price gyrations - it will be all over the place. Then the week leading up to earnings, it will make a big move up...and generally gives it all back afterwards - regardless of what they announce. I know that's going to come to an end one of these quarters and the shares are going to keep going higher.

    Anyhow, if you hadn't noticed, the market maker here is as bad as, if not worse than over at LTRX. Paints the tape for a lower close most every day - even today. Anyhow, glad you're here.

    $3.43 ... 382 ... NSD ... 16:00:00
    $3.43 ... 100 ... NSD ... 15:59:45
    $3.52 ... 100 ... NDD ... 15:41:45
    $3.514 ... 45 ... NDD ... 15:39:02
    $3.514 ... 100 ... NDD ... 15:39:02
    $3.514 ... 200 ... NDD ... 15:39:02
    $3.53 ... 45 ... NSD ... 15:39:02
    $3.53 ... 100 ... NSD ... 15:39:02
    $3.52 ... 400 ... NSD ... 15:39:02
    $3.529 ... 755 ... NDD ... 15:39:02
    $3.53 ... 200 ... NYE ... 15:39:02

  • o08o.ugh64w o08o.ugh64w Jan 29, 2014 1:29 PM Flag

    Yep, that $1.03 was really a great opportunity.

    Let's discuss that thought again when the shares are at 0.93 in the next week or two.

  • o08o.ugh64w by o08o.ugh64w Jan 29, 2014 11:22 AM Flag

    Come to me!!!!

    Price target = $1.30

  • You folks can sell all you like and drag the price down no matter how small a trade you make - fine by me, I've been through this before with FXNC and UBMI. You are scaring yourselves out of money - and that's fine by me. You want to take it down to $3.50 or $3.00 - go for it - the shares will still be well over $5 during 2014. This is typical for a small floater.

    Maybe nobody has told you in the past, so I will - the objective here is to buy low and sell high. Look at the chart - $4.00 is low.

    Don't make a fool of yourself.

  • Reply to

    Come to me (again) my little chickadees!

    by o08o.ugh64w Jan 28, 2014 10:21 AM
    o08o.ugh64w o08o.ugh64w Jan 29, 2014 9:58 AM Flag

    Sorry - you are correct. I was looking at the filing date on the 10K - I see that the 8K with the results was filed four weeks earlier.

  • Reply to

    No shares repurchased in the quarter

    by o08o.ugh64w Jan 28, 2014 5:28 PM
    o08o.ugh64w o08o.ugh64w Jan 28, 2014 9:26 PM Flag

    I also think that the yoy quarterly comparison ($16,500 vs. $13,994) is not really a fair/valid one because revenues were abnormally lower as a result of the hurricane in 2012. So, the yoy quarterly increase is not as dramatic as it appears at first glance. That was also indicated on the call.

  • Reply to

    Learn from Warren Buffet ...

    by poker_face_trader Jan 25, 2014 1:26 AM
    o08o.ugh64w o08o.ugh64w Jan 28, 2014 8:47 PM Flag

    Did he invest in IBM? Is it one of his largest positions at this time worth over $12 billion? Is IBM not a technology company?

  • Reply to

    Earnings just ok, not dazzling

    by o08o.ugh64w Jan 28, 2014 4:17 PM
    o08o.ugh64w o08o.ugh64w Jan 28, 2014 8:30 PM Flag

    "Revs. have been, in 000's dollars :
    13,994 15,883 17,030 16.500 over last 4 Qs "

    You've left off a quarter - last quarter was 17,027 so last 4 Qs are:

    15,883 17,030 17,027 16.500

    That changes your discussion/conclusion a little.

  • FYI from the call

  • And earnings since then have been great.

IRWD
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