1. runup since Wednesday is just going with the market. I didn't like this market move - I thought it was completely unjustified. Since AP shares have gone up about 15% off the low, I figured it was good to take the money and run.
2. the shares go ex-dividend at the open on Tuesday - look at the price history what happens after the shares have gone ex-dividend the past year.
3. I'm not liking that management has been so tight-lipped about the acquisition, not indicating the price, how much cash was used, if any debt financing was taken, nor any specifics about the acquired company - like what their revenues and earnings are? I also didn't particularly like the explanation given in the press release for why they were making the acquisition...basically "We think our customers will like what the business can offer". What I wanted to hear was "The acquisition price was $XX million and it will be immediately accretive to earnings" - I didn't hear that, and so to me, the implication is that this is simply an acquisition for the sake of doing an acquisition. Was it necessary? I'm getting the feeling that it really wasn't necessary. I've seen another small cap company that had a really wonderful balance sheet similar to AP - they went and made an acquisition, used a chunk of cash, took on a lot of goodwill and they completely destroyed the balance sheet and now the acquired company is a liability. My greatest fear is that similar might be taking place here.
4. Insiders were previously buying shares in the $16s, $18s, and $19s over the past year. However, with the shares solidly below $15 for months now, not one insider pulled cash out of his/her pocket to buy shares.
5. AA announced poor earnings and X continues to be hammered. Hearing absolutely nothing out of the company while the shares have continued to slide makes me think that the quarter is going to come in soft.
yes, I'm just noticing the volume myself.
maybe with the Fed pushing off the rate increase once again, people are reconsidering the solid dividend here in addition to the improving outlook going forward?
whatever the reason - volume increase with share price increase is always a good thing.
also been taking CSPI shares through my commission-free account - no skin off my back to just keep a lowball bid out there even if it's only filling 25 shares at a time. my fill at $5.33 today didn't even post because it was under 100 shares.
little by little the volume is coming back, and the shares are melting upwards. at some point, as new owners purchase as the shares move higher, the cheap selling will end - we're getting there.
much ado about nothing with this silly jobs report...one week things re great, the next terrible...all the numbers are bogus
what is important is earnings, and SAL has them. what's more important, is that most people are not aware that SAL's earnings are not only good, but are not yet fully reflective of the added profits with the acquisition for a full year of results yet. performance last quarter showed it with the huge jump in EPS.
in any case, I've seen how crazy this market can be, and will just slowly nibble on shares for as long as the manipulating market makers want to push the them lower. anything under $30 is a good deal - throw in the dividend approaching 4% and it's a great deal.
I track small community/regional banks closely. On many of the metrics I track, SAL is undervalued. Probably the most important is price/deposits and SAL is about 20% to 25% below the average - which means they are a potential acquisition target themselves.
in any case, take the gift the market is offering with cheap SAL shares...I will continue to.
again, the shares jumped to the ridiculous closing price of $10.90 solely because of quadruple witching Friday.
very slowly, people are selling...though clearly some are attempting to keep the shares above $9.00 - their firepower is running out.
someone is going to step up, and dump 10,000 shares at the market, and just as has happened in the past, the shares are going to tank to $8.00.
that's what my crystal ball says is going to happen.
every day I am interested and I say to myself "I'll just buy a tiny position and add more later"...then it slides and I say to myself "too dangerous I don't want to touch it".
seriously though, at some point it has to reach bottom.
1. Today was the time for buying - right at end of day. People selling simply because market was down, and market maker manipulated price with last trade so it would close under $6.
2. I was likewise concerned about a lowball buyout with the shares so low. However, Singer and Miller still hold good size positions and they will not allow the company to be sold cheap.
Shares have obviously been gaining strength and there has been some good sized purchasing the past few days. Shares will certainly bounce back, as today was just the market...can't do anything about that...except buy more. I think we both know that under $6 is pretty great with the dividend and continued low market interest rates.
if you have access to time and sales data, check what happened beginning at exactly 15:50:00 on Friday. now, go look at some other stocks that similarly trade low volume - with most you can see the same took place with a (relatively) large closing trade at 16:00:00...the activity began at 15:50:00 with all of them - which obviously means that it was all computer driven.
my belief is that shares of all these companies should gravitate to where they were trading just before 15:50:00 on Friday...unless there is news since then justifying the current share price. some were moved higher, others lower.
quadruple witching hour (google it).
similar happened with many other stocks/companies...it was just extremely prevalent here because of the illiquidity of shares.
shares will slowly trend back under $8.25...today and probably tomorrow you have stragglers who simply see the shares are down $2 and think they are getting a bargain.
UBCP is a good bank showing good results. however, at $9 it is a bit overpriced considering current performance.
so long as the company is performing, increasing the bottom line, decreasing the debt, and making good progress, they can manage it as they like.
if you ever have concern or believe that the amounts being taken are egregious, I will tell you, the analyst, and anyone else to go look at what is taking place at FLL.
this company is very well run.
I'm personally not excited about the acquisition, however, knowing/seeing what this management team has already done, I am willing to give them a long leash.
unfortunately the analyst was stuck on the 63% increase in compensation. over the past few years, the compensation was actually low in my mind...and they have done a tremendous job turning things around...lots of bang for the buck. as was indicated, and apparently the analyst could not get through his thick skull, most of the increase was the valuation of OPTIONS ... they aren't worth squat unless the stock goes higher. the total compensation number may be up 63%, but it's not like the increase in compensation is cash going right into their pockets.
it also seems that there are more analysts involved now...it may take them a little time to come up to speed ... the folks here likely know more/better at this point.
unfortunately, none of the analysts were impressed enough with the quarter to say "nice quarter guys".
Not sure if there is a big shareholder looking to do this or if it is the market maker...but he is going to have his way and then accumulate shares at a much lower price unless someone steps in and starts buying up a good chunk of shares.
I'll just stay out of the way, stand pat with my position, an trade elsewhere.