Thanks - appreciate it. You are definitely correct - most of the things I invest in are thinly traded/followed and it can cause ulcers at times. However, what I've learned is that I'm usually right, just early to the party. It happened a few times over the past year - my biggest winner (over 100%), I was the only person posting on the board (UBMI) and they ultimately got a buyout early this year.
However, what I will say is that the first thing that leads me to a company/stock is the insider purchasing. From there I slap on the fundamental analysis. But the insider purchasing is always the first filter. If there's no insider purchasing, I really don't care what it is or how good it appears.
If you really have an iron stomach, check this one out - I just bought this morning - will probably end out holding for 5 years - GRBS. Teeny tiny bank (I am partial to banks these days that are mispriced) - good insider purchasing record, CEO just bought shares last month, and financials look really good. But, because of the low float, sometimes there might not be a trade for a week or two at a time!
What else are you invested in? I've found that folks I run into on the boards I participate on generally have similar likes/dislikes when it comes to where they put their money.
"FINL is trading with a 19 PE and P/S of 0.8. If we value SPCH with a 19 PE with 4% net margin, that's about $4/share"
I meant to type a little more, but space ran out.
But my final point again comes back to P/S - with SPCH currently at 0.04...obviously if that is a more normal number, the shares would be valued many times higher. Even in distressed retail names, I rarely see P/S below 0.15 to 0.20. At 0.04, it is extremely compelling.
1. Similar to ULBI, management holds a large stake and is buying shares. Above $2.50 in the past there's been some sellers, but below $1.75 the past few years they've been buyers.
2. Earnings for this past quarter. Here is a retailer that turned in a good/solid profitable quarter. That says something important. While most other retailers have had a downright awful holiday quarter, SPCH turned in profits - and that was during an ongoing turnaround.
3. They have a good website/system. I ordered something online a couple weeks ago (after already owning shares). The price for what I purchased was a good 30% to 40% below what the price was on Amazon and the shipping was free. The website was very good, the selection was very good the ordering process was very good, obviously the price was great, it shipped out quickly, and what I ordered was exactly what I wanted, it fit well, and everything was excellent from start to finish. Couldn't be happier.
4. I think the shares are very undervalued for what the financials show. Price/sales is 0.04 - the company is being valued as if it's going out of business. I remember a few years ago when I invested in Finish Line (FINL) it was valued in a similar way. Longer term Finish Line shares have soared - I think the same is possible here. However, while I was too fast to sell my FINL shares, that won't be the case here.
Like ULBI this is another turnaround play. The big difference is that SPCH has the sales and they really just need to tighten things up to reduce costs and increase margins. With price/sales so ridiculously low, even very small full year earnings will move the shares much higher. How difficult would it be for SPCH to have net margins of just 1%? That would translate to EPS of about 5 cents/share. I think SPCH should be able to have net margins comparable to FINL, which is just over 4%. FINL is trading with a 19 PE and P/S of 0.8. If we value SPCH with a 19 PE with 4% net margin, that's about $4/share.
Not a problem - happy to share.
If you do invest in ULBI, I wouldn't jump in with both feet all at one time based on what I know of how it trades. As nice as the current move higher is, it is so thinly traded with a wide spread and market makers playing games that again, there is not lots of logic as to how the shares move. I think that the current rise has more to do with technicals (50 DMA crossing 200 DMA) and there are a lot of technical traders out there - so they may be beginning to move in.
"One more, which products / areas, you think will be biggest growth drivers going forward? Where is the potential?"
This is actually one of the exciting things (I think) with ULBI. This isn't simply a financial/accounting slice and dice to reduce costs and then go forward with a leaner footprint. The company is developing and introducing new products and moving into other lines of business...like 3M continually does. They don't just sell legacy products and try to grow sales. They are moving into tangential product lines where they can use their expertise. I think healthcare is a very big potential market. My wife works in a hospital and I see the portable machines they have all over - the new products ULBI is introducing have a very large mission-critical market to sell into and it is certainly going to be a winner as they gain traction. If they can land a couple of OEM contracts that would be huge.
I think this type of thinking by management, to innovate and be developing new products is what is going to allow the company to be hugely successful in the future. They have the expertise, now attack other products/markets where that expertise can be leveraged.
Underlying all of this, the company has the fortress balance sheet - so they can readily afford to be doing this. At the same time, even today, the company is not posting losses - it is profitable while this is happening. As mentioned previously, the market today is crazy - Average Joe is now back in again, and making all the same mistakes as 2000 and 2008 - trading, just throwing his money at any stock where he thinks he can make a quick buck. ULBI doesn't interest him because it moves too slowly.
Management has made all the right moves here and any investor who has some vision beyond a few weeks or months can see this is going to be hugely successful and a big winner. The only question is can you be patient?
I've owned/follwed for maybe 6 to 9 months at this point. I have two accounts where I hold shares:
1. My long-term account. I have not sold any shares from the position and add to it to average down when the shares get too low.
2. A "trading" account where I will flip the shares. Even in the short time which I've held shares thus far, I've come to learn how the stock reacts around earnings time. So, I'll pick up the shares as they dip below $3.50, keep buying any lower than that, then sell during the runup into earnings. If folks want to play that game and torpedo the shares after the earnings announcement, I can get there first and play right along with them. I know that one time (possibly now) this will no longer work, but that's fine as my long-term account is holding a significant number of shares and I'm quite confident the shares are going to minimally double in price within the next 12 to 18 months.
3. As far as how long the turnaround will take, my view is that it is not something that will have a defined endpoint. The plan that is in place is something that will be used going forward forever. The plan was put in place about a year ago. I've been invested in a number of turnaround plays and this one is following the same trajectory as others - reduce sales, increase margins, stabilize sales, increase sales and then enjoy the profits. ULBI also had the difficulty that the gov't budget additionally constrained sales over the past year. It may actually be a blessing in disguise, because when these sales come back (and they will), the company is operating leaner and so margins will be higher. Bottom line, the turnaround is already happening and we should have clear profitability and a good outlook coming in one of the next few quarters this year.
I follow management and consider their purchasing of shares much more heavily than institutions/funds.
As far as Eliot Rose and reducing their stake by 135,000 shares over the past 8 months:
1. Their current position of 1,804,090 shares (10.3%) is up from their holdings at this time last year of 1,585,956 shares which was 9.1%. So, even reducing their position a little, it is still significantly higher over the past year. I wouldn't exactly equate it to "rushing out".
2. Institutions/funds like Eliot Rose have different agendas, timelines, impetus guiding their moves. In a crazy stock market which isn't necessarily moving based on logic. I would not put lots of value into what any particular investor is doing - we don't know the facts/circumstances behind what they're doing. Could simply have been year end rebalancing of their holdings.
Tried placing a limit order for what the ask was showing, he immediately steps in front of it and takes the shares.
The games will only last so long.
Sales going higher over remainder of the year. We'll likely see a profit posted in Q3 or Q4.
This is my favorite banking stock/play along with BVA. Both have similar management plans - experienced management, acquire distressed bank, revive it, grow it, eventually sell it for lots more.
I like BYBK for the low float, the management, and the name. Banks with similar names have historical done well - it was a good choice.
Go review the recent management presentation - they have a good plan in place, they are able to differentiate themselves, and as a result it is going to be a successful endeavor.
The time to be buying is now - historically a weak time of year for banks in general. With the low float, the shares could take off at any time if some interest comes, but certainly the shares will move higher later in the year as the strength and quality of the earnings continues to grow.
check them out:
$0.156 ... 1,150 ... OTCBB ... 15:36:44
$0.15 ... 600 ... OTCBB ... 02/27
That's it - a big 1750 shares between two trades - simply sold to make you think the sky is falling.
I will attest to this - as previously, when the shares were at $1.80 and lower it was impossible to buy any kind of volume of shares - even as little as 1000! Today, I can move in and out of 1000, 2000, and even 5000 share positions on a fairly regular basis without much difficulty.
thanks so much for creating that brand new id just for making those two posts.
too funny the shenanigans that take place on these messageboards.
I feel sorry for novice investors who may actually believe some of the stuff folks like you post.
25k - who cares? It's not even $5000.
I took more at .175 today - just put my 10k bid out there and let some timid fool hand me his shares.
If it goes to .15, my 10k bid will be out there again for anyone who wants to hit it.
Enjoy your petty posts and any pleasure it might bring you. Just make sure you stick around for when the shares are back up in the .50 to .75 range in a few months.
That jump to 97 cents yesterday was just the beginning - Merriman is going to bring attention to the company/shares. Brian Marckx/Zacks were passive - he writes a report and then doesn't do anything besides sitting on his hands for another 3 months until the next earnings report. Merriman is going to be active - they are going to shake things up, new/more investors will be buying shares, and by this time next year we're going to be looking at shares in the $2 range.
China sales will increase the remainder of the year - Zack wouldn't fudge that. Further, no matter how much sales Merck brings, it is new sales that were not there before. It is a big/new distribution channel - will only be beneficial.
It is always darkest before the dawn. Seen it many times with microcap companies in this sector. You can toss your shares at 74 and 75 cents a share, you can even send the shares lower...I will be buying them up and laughing a few months from now.
Watch and learn.
All good points.
How can the company continue to give a blanket statement of "we don't know the extent of financial liability or how long this will take to resolve" and quarter after quarter post big charges for this? For a company this size, it makes no sense and how they can provide no discussion on the conference call at all? You can't consider it like black box project where you keep throwing money at it and give no details to anyone. As it is, every penny they throw at this investigation and whatever legal action and damages may come out of it is money that is being burned up - there will be no collecting of it...the company employee did something wrong. My intuition is telling my that it is likely a bribery situation where the overseas company employee attempted to bride a foreign official during the bidding process for a contract. I have no idea whether that is the case, but from the initial tidbits that were provided last year, that is my educated guess.
Conference call was a joke - all softball questions from analysts.
Downside risk is much greater than upside here. The investigation/outcome will put them out of business - it's a money pit. Until the company confirms otherwise, I think that based on what's been going on here for the past year, you have to assume the worst.
I advised moving over to ITI for a peer/sector play and that is still an alternative as the shares will move higher over the spring/summer months.
Anyhow, good luck if you decide to remain here.
That is not the correct way to look at it. You need to look at when was the last time he purchased, what the circumstances were, and where did the share price go afterwards?
Last purchase was November 2011, 5000 shares at $1.21/share, and the chart clearly shows what has happened since.
So, his purchase of 10,000 shares at $2.11/$2.15 is an extremely good sign in comparison.
I think this is good confirmation that business is going to be very good the remainder of this year.
On February 13, 2014, Premier Exhibition Management, LLC, a subsidiary of Premier Exhibitions, Inc., terminated its Joint Production Agreement with TSX Operating Company LLC (“TSX”) to produce an exhibition based on the Federal Bureau of Investigation. Pursuant to the Joint Production Agreement, the Company and TSX would have jointly produced and toured the exhibition. The production costs of approximately $1.2 million were to be funded 80% by the Company and 20% by TSX. According to the agreement, revenues from the exhibition would be paid 80% to the Company and 20% to TSX until the parties recouped 110% of the production cost, and 68% to the Company and 32% to TSX thereafter. In addition, the Company would have been paid a management fee of $60,000 per venue where the exhibition was presented.
The Joint Production Agreement was contingent on a license from a third party, which withdrew its participation from the project. The Joint Production Agreement provided the Company with a right to terminate under these circumstances.
This summary does not purport to be complete and is qualified by reference to the full text of the Joint Production Agreement, a copy of which was filed as an exhibit to a Current Report on Form 8-K dated October 22, 2013, and is hereby incorporated herein by reference