Think you're scaring anyone selling those 150 shares to knock the price down? You're going to have to do better than that.
Just remember that you sold at $1.97 when the shares are sitting at $2.50 within the next 3 to 6 months.
This is actually a very conservative call considering the shares were at $19 less than 8 weeks ago and in the interim there was a solid earnings announcement, good forward guidance, and dividend payment.
Sit back, collect the nice dividend, and watch the shares move higher.
For those who do not believe that painting the tape is a real thing, have a look at the only trade of the day thus far:
$1.15 ... 1 ... NDD ... 09:37:37
If you don't understand how to read that, it says that someone sold 1 single share for $1.15 this morning.
You think they were scared that the bottom would fall out of the stock and they might lose their $1.15? Or maybe they just want the last trade to print at $1.15 down from $1.16?
What it means is that this person:
1. Is short and is trying to make you believe the stock wants to go lower
2. Someone who wants to buy shares at a lower price, tries to prime the pump and make you sell to him at a lower price
Either way, the only reason somebody would sell one single share (when the bid is sitting there at the same price) is that the person is afraid the shares will move higher and not lower - having seen some trades yesterday at $1.18 - he has good reason to be afraid, because when the shares move higher, they are going back to $1.75.
I'm buying more here and every 5 cents lower.
Look at the trades today - after my decent size buy, the price is dragged down on miniscule volume. A couple people sell 1000 or 2000 shares, then in the last 15 minutes of the day, a few 100 and 200 share trades bring it right back up.
We've likely just seen the last snow storm of the season. As the weather gets nicer, we're going to see more work come in and worked on. I expect to see more contracts being announced in the near-term.
Go review sales and earning estimates for 2014 and 2015 - shares are currently undervalued - we should be closer to $3 than $2.
In the mean time, while a good portion of the market is overvalued, you can rest comfortably with ITI shares at the current price.
Patience - just a bit longer.
Seeing the 10,000 shares sitting on the ask at $3.94 most of the day, you are likely correct that it is an institution looking to sell.
Institutions holding 8% of the company is nothing. It's less than $2 million total.
Aside from Vanguard and DFA, the others aren't even worth considering.
We'll see if it is institutions selling when they make their filings at the end of March.
There isn't so much stock available at any price - there's less than 2 million shares in the entire float.
All the shares "available" that you see selling, are the momentum folks that were caught up in the one day spike over $4 the day the buyback was announced. They are taking their losses, and giving "us" shares at an undervalued price. I say "us" in that shares repurchased are terminated and as a result, "our" shares are worth more. Let the company buyback everything they can under $4/share.
Institutions are not the sellers - name any institutions that hold shares.
I believe that the plan here is that the company/Ron will repurchase as many shares as possible under the repurchase plan, then either make an offer to buy the remaining outstanding shares to go private, or just simply sit back and watch the shares take off as profits start to be posted and the number of shares in the float is even lower. Either way, smart investors will just hold tight and be patient.
Risk here is extremely low at this time, and reward is extremely high.
I'm looking to buy more.
In general, over the past week or so, banks have been relatively weak. I think it is because of the view that interest rates will be staying low for a longer period of time - banks need higher interest rates to increase profits. This just continues to put a damper on things in the short term. Having a dividend over 5% makes it easy to bear here. I think it should also be reason that the stock would go higher, to make the yield closer to what other similar financials are paying - which is in the 3% to 4% range - implying the shares should get to $25 just on the dividend and the state of things today. In any event, having just increased the dividend, we both know that it is safe, and if we have to collect that 5%+ for being patient, it's doable.
If the Chinese are paying $1.25, I can buy at 80 cents.
Now let's see them do what they say they were going to do - increase China sales and the shares go back above $1.00
Agreed on most all your points.
But additionally, they aren't just sitting still with their thumbs up their butts waiting around for the gov't orders - they are introducing new products, they are seeing good acceptance, and it is laying the groundwork for future growth. They will see growth in the medical products area, and I'm sure they will make inroads with overseas business.
It's just a slow process to get there - but at least there is a plan in place to get there, and it is working.
As far as Mike taking the company private, I agree that's a possibility, one that I hope he does not investigate as I think the gains here will be very big once the growth and higher profitability returns.
This is how turnarounds work. If you are unable to have patience and see it through, then you probably shouldn't invest in turnaround situations.
The quarter was compounded by gov't orders being delayed - they won't go away as they need the stuff and it's not as if they went and bought from someone else. The sales are coming, just pushed right (as indicated on the call).
The outlook was good, more revenues are coming from new products. Management is doing everything they said they would do and the results are beginning to kick in. They are not going to immediately show massive top line growth and massive profitability - but they are turning the corner. This is a good thing as the return to growth will be gradual and give the shares a long ramp for going up - the results won't be so choppy where it's all over the place with big losses.
The company is posting profits even in difficult times. With the gov't budget issues being resolved that money will be flowing again. But, additionally we now also have sales from new products, and more will be coming.
So long as the company does not post losses it's fine, the sales growth will come.
You aren't going to find very many companies with the strength of the balance sheet, not posting losses, and poised for growth like this one.
You can hold the stock and not really worry about it the way you do with others in the current market environment.
"lower average prices received from health care insurers due to their increased focus on controlling health care costs as well as more rigorous scrutiny by insurers of reimbursement requests for a wide range of medical devices and other health care products"
“We continued to see pressure on our revenues in the second quarter of fiscal 2014 driven by uncertainty surrounding health care reform and the Affordable Care Act combined with ongoing efforts by health insurers to control costs. "
Environment will continue to be challenging. Company will straddle breakeven at best.
Just another dead cat bounce this morning. Look at the stock chart from last year - the same is coming over the next 6 months.
Price target = $1.30
Way undervalued at current price.
Seeking Alpha idiot author has his head screwed on backwards - but that's fine, it's what makes a market and enables amateurs to hand over their hard-earned money to professionals...because they actually read and believe what those neophytes write. Use your own head, do your own research, and reach your own conclusions. The SA author beats up ONB, but pumps his own NBBC which is quite overvalued.
Though implied value of UBMI deal is now a bit lower than a couple weeks ago, it is still a good arbitrage opportunity if shares are being tossed. I am buying UBMI below $11.65 and ONB below $13.40. By the time the deal closes, ONB shares will be back at/above $15, which, barring any unforeseen circumstances, should value UBMI shares at/above $13.
Six months from now ONB is going to be hitting new 52 week highs as these mergers progress and sales/profits begin to rise.
Interest rates will not be as low as they currently are forever. Once rates do move up, earnings will skyrocket, along with the share price. The biggest decision for ONB is going to be whether to remain independent and focus on its own growth, or to accept a buyout by one of the TBTF banks.
In the mean time, sit back, collect a really nice dividend that was just increased, and know that the share repurchase is still in place.
Take advantage of those who do not have the conviction to act on what is perfectly clear. If the shares continue lower, buy more and reap bigger benefits.