much ado about nothing with this silly jobs report...one week things re great, the next terrible...all the numbers are bogus
what is important is earnings, and SAL has them. what's more important, is that most people are not aware that SAL's earnings are not only good, but are not yet fully reflective of the added profits with the acquisition for a full year of results yet. performance last quarter showed it with the huge jump in EPS.
in any case, I've seen how crazy this market can be, and will just slowly nibble on shares for as long as the manipulating market makers want to push the them lower. anything under $30 is a good deal - throw in the dividend approaching 4% and it's a great deal.
I track small community/regional banks closely. On many of the metrics I track, SAL is undervalued. Probably the most important is price/deposits and SAL is about 20% to 25% below the average - which means they are a potential acquisition target themselves.
in any case, take the gift the market is offering with cheap SAL shares...I will continue to.
again, the shares jumped to the ridiculous closing price of $10.90 solely because of quadruple witching Friday.
very slowly, people are selling...though clearly some are attempting to keep the shares above $9.00 - their firepower is running out.
someone is going to step up, and dump 10,000 shares at the market, and just as has happened in the past, the shares are going to tank to $8.00.
that's what my crystal ball says is going to happen.
every day I am interested and I say to myself "I'll just buy a tiny position and add more later"...then it slides and I say to myself "too dangerous I don't want to touch it".
seriously though, at some point it has to reach bottom.
1. Today was the time for buying - right at end of day. People selling simply because market was down, and market maker manipulated price with last trade so it would close under $6.
2. I was likewise concerned about a lowball buyout with the shares so low. However, Singer and Miller still hold good size positions and they will not allow the company to be sold cheap.
Shares have obviously been gaining strength and there has been some good sized purchasing the past few days. Shares will certainly bounce back, as today was just the market...can't do anything about that...except buy more. I think we both know that under $6 is pretty great with the dividend and continued low market interest rates.
if you have access to time and sales data, check what happened beginning at exactly 15:50:00 on Friday. now, go look at some other stocks that similarly trade low volume - with most you can see the same took place with a (relatively) large closing trade at 16:00:00...the activity began at 15:50:00 with all of them - which obviously means that it was all computer driven.
my belief is that shares of all these companies should gravitate to where they were trading just before 15:50:00 on Friday...unless there is news since then justifying the current share price. some were moved higher, others lower.
quadruple witching hour (google it).
similar happened with many other stocks/companies...it was just extremely prevalent here because of the illiquidity of shares.
shares will slowly trend back under $8.25...today and probably tomorrow you have stragglers who simply see the shares are down $2 and think they are getting a bargain.
UBCP is a good bank showing good results. however, at $9 it is a bit overpriced considering current performance.
so long as the company is performing, increasing the bottom line, decreasing the debt, and making good progress, they can manage it as they like.
if you ever have concern or believe that the amounts being taken are egregious, I will tell you, the analyst, and anyone else to go look at what is taking place at FLL.
this company is very well run.
I'm personally not excited about the acquisition, however, knowing/seeing what this management team has already done, I am willing to give them a long leash.
unfortunately the analyst was stuck on the 63% increase in compensation. over the past few years, the compensation was actually low in my mind...and they have done a tremendous job turning things around...lots of bang for the buck. as was indicated, and apparently the analyst could not get through his thick skull, most of the increase was the valuation of OPTIONS ... they aren't worth squat unless the stock goes higher. the total compensation number may be up 63%, but it's not like the increase in compensation is cash going right into their pockets.
it also seems that there are more analysts involved now...it may take them a little time to come up to speed ... the folks here likely know more/better at this point.
unfortunately, none of the analysts were impressed enough with the quarter to say "nice quarter guys".
Not sure if there is a big shareholder looking to do this or if it is the market maker...but he is going to have his way and then accumulate shares at a much lower price unless someone steps in and starts buying up a good chunk of shares.
I'll just stay out of the way, stand pat with my position, an trade elsewhere.
someone is selling 100 shares at the bid every 60 seconds...no matter what buying/selling is taking place, just every minute selling. if you have Level 2 you can see it.
generally this is done to push the shares lower in an attempt to make a much larger purchase once the shares have been sufficiently pushed down.
simply trying to scare people into selling.
someone bought about 6000 shares at $5.50, then immediately after, selling of 100 shares every 60 seconds continues.
some concerted buying will need to step up, otherwise the 100 shares every 60 seconds will just slowly take out the bids and push the price lower.
"And as our investors know, this license expansion -- like all license expansions for us -- represents very high margin business"
Patience...secure 8% dividend makes it easy.
We've been through this before - company always performs.
My only concern would be company gets acquired cheaply with the shares this low again.
there were much better bashers here last time around.
you won't be here in 3 months and shares will be back at $9.