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AmeriGas Partners LP Message Board

o08o.ugh64w 100 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 7 minutes ago Member since: May 13, 2011
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  • o08o.ugh64w o08o.ugh64w Aug 4, 2014 5:48 PM Flag

    What did I say?

    It is really amazing the level of transparency of the corruption that goes on. Initiate coverage, give a buy rating, give an upgrade...and we'll give you our business.

    Way to go Ivan!

    Stay away from this smelly garbage.

    "Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc. and MLV & Co. LLC are serving as joint book-running managers for the offering."

  • Executed better than expected for the quarter. Decent outlook. Next quarter has losses lower than current estimate. CEO is very strong and has the right plan for moving forward.

    This is a turnaround play - it's expected that there would be a few soft quarters. The company is doing what's necessary to return to long-term growth/profitability.

    Book to bill 1.26
    Backlog up

    The way to play these is by buying slowly on the way down - don't shoot your wad all at once or you will be extremely disappointed if you don't catch the absolute bottom.

  • Autumn/Winter will be here soon.

  • Reply to

    ANOTHER DISSAPOINTMENT

    by ejschultheis Jul 31, 2014 8:13 AM
    o08o.ugh64w o08o.ugh64w Jul 31, 2014 10:34 AM Flag

    "If we double 6 month revenues we'll have about $61 million for the year, 2% to 3% would be operating loss of about $1.5 million and currently we are at a loss of $2.4 million..."

    As indicated on the call, back half is expected to be about $40 million revenues and about $70 million total for the year. So, 2% to 3% is a loss of about $1.75 million - again, there will be profitability the remainder of the year. As also indicated, this is the conservative view. They are successfully diversifying into commercial areas to compensate for decline in government business. When government business comes, it will be icing on the cake.

  • Reply to

    ANOTHER DISSAPOINTMENT

    by ejschultheis Jul 31, 2014 8:13 AM
    o08o.ugh64w o08o.ugh64w Jul 31, 2014 10:03 AM Flag

    they are doing fine. read the announcement closely.

    "As a result of the revised outlook for revenue, management now expects a slight operating loss for the year in the range of 2 -- 3% of sales."

    If we double 6 month revenues we'll have about $61 million for the year, 2% to 3% would be operating loss of about $1.5 million and currently we are at a loss of $2.4 million - implication is that for the remainder of the year we'll see an operating profit of about $1 million. This is important - as also indicated in the announcement, margins are improving and outlook is better. Sales of new products are slowly rising, and eventually government sales will come back - when they do, the company will be solidly profitable.

    Yes, it is difficult playing the waiting game, however, overall operationally things are getting much better as we move forward. The balance sheet is still solid and improving.

  • ESPN suspends Stephen A. Smith over Ray Rice domestic abuse commentary

  • o08o.ugh64w by o08o.ugh64w Jul 25, 2014 1:27 PM Flag

    Met estimates on top and bottom line. PFS is a great place to put your money at this time - solid earnings, respectable/secure dividend, good growth coming.

    The market is going to be turbulent and likely head lower between now and year end. Banks and financials like PFS are going to be a safe haven providing good returns now through the dividend, and great returns going forward as interest rates trend higher.

    PFS is doing a really good job, being cautious in its lending and capital deployment, and is growing steadily. It's where you want to be at this time.

    Keep your head on straight, and use dips in the share price as an opportunity to pick up more shares cheaply.

  • o08o.ugh64w by o08o.ugh64w Jul 21, 2014 4:10 PM Flag

    Very strong in all areas.

    Shares are very cheap here. Stock dividend and/or increase in the cash dividend is likely coming within next few months.

    AROW is in a position to be making acquisitions, or to be acquired.

  • o08o.ugh64w o08o.ugh64w Jul 18, 2014 10:09 AM Flag

    "Sidoti seems to be giving us a warning about possible lower prices. Others here may disagree and dislike the fact that I'm mentioning it but just by reviewing their web site, they seem to be under no pressure to do anything but provide research. "

    What happened is perfectly clear. Sidoti did nothing but read the headline and shoot from the hip, plain and simple. If you give credence to that type of "coverage", then more power to you. What I've learned is that it's the kind of stuff that shock journalism is made of. I think back to when another big firm put a similar type of rating on Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines when it was trading at $5 not so many years ago. The company and stock price performance since that day speaks for itself.

    So, if you look to such dramatization from the only firm providing coverage, that they provided absolutely no details of specifics why they issued their downgrade and price target before having any details from the company, then again, soak it all in.

    You will see Sidoti move back to a buy rating with the prior $2 price target they had when the company finalizes and submits the filings - with absolutely no material changes having taken place during the period. I will bank on it.

  • o08o.ugh64w by o08o.ugh64w Jul 18, 2014 8:59 AM Flag

    Earnings release this morning of 17 cents/share for the quarter implies about 68 cents/year putting current PE at about 10. For a bank not paying a dividend, this is reasonable. I own another small bank trading at the same PE and paying 3.6% dividend.

    Should they initiate a dividend, even a small one, or show increasing profitability going forward, then a higher price could be justified.

    For now, I'd say hold - wouldn't be buying at the current price.

  • Reply to

    Is it trading again?

    by glassfecalact Jul 16, 2014 4:31 PM
    o08o.ugh64w o08o.ugh64w Jul 16, 2014 5:36 PM Flag

    Further, it appears that the amount of revenue in question is about $1.4 million - not the end of the world.

  • Reply to

    Is it trading again?

    by glassfecalact Jul 16, 2014 4:31 PM
    o08o.ugh64w o08o.ugh64w Jul 16, 2014 5:32 PM Flag

    News release looks good for as much as can be said at this point.

    Comparing with 9 month results, it's looking like Q4 revenues are between $17 million and $18 million and bottom line is anywhere from a loss of $800,000 to a profit of $150,000.

  • Reply to

    Sidoti idiots

    by o08o.ugh64w Jul 16, 2014 3:55 PM
    o08o.ugh64w o08o.ugh64w Jul 16, 2014 4:22 PM Flag

    just have to laugh

    good find

  • See for yourself. What do you think the odds are that someone could place trades at exactly 5 minute intervals to the exact second?

    $3.65 ... 200 ... EDGX ... 15:46:06
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    $3.65 ... 100 ... EDGX ... 14:46:06
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  • o08o.ugh64w by o08o.ugh64w Jul 16, 2014 3:55 PM Flag

    Don't even wait to hear the details or if there is any impact.

    Well, for anyone who wants to buy when trading resumes - Sidoti is out there today to help you.

  • Reply to

    halted

    by stumbleoften Jul 16, 2014 9:37 AM
    o08o.ugh64w o08o.ugh64w Jul 16, 2014 10:10 AM Flag

    understood - share buybacks also fall under the same rules as insider purchasing - even moreso.

    google for "Questions Surrounding Share Repurchases" and the first link is to the Harvard Law School blog - it covers this..."The Company" is the ultimate insider. The article was written by an attorney at Skadden Arps - one of the top legal firms.

  • Most folks who lack investment skills have not faced the fact that interest rates will be trending higher going forward. They don't understand that in general it's going to put pressure on the stock market and their dividend paying stocks. What they also lack a total understanding of is that banks and financials are going to be the beneficiaries of higher interest rates as the spreads between their borrowing and lending rates widen and translate into higher profitability. For the past few years banks have been squeezed and every CEO discusses the challenges of the low interest rate environment. Now, the reigns are going to be loosened and with higher interest rates will come higher profitability.

    PFS is going to do extremely well having just completed another merger, and will be ready for taking advantage of the higher interest rates.

    Pick up or add to your PFS holdings while you still have the opportunity to do so at the current bargain price. Also, diversify across other banks and financials as well - there are many good ones paying solid/secure/growing dividends with strong balance sheets and asset quality.

    When the banks and financials move up over the next couple years, they are not going to be coming back to these levels unless we have another financial crisis/meltdown and I don't think that's going to happen.

  • o08o.ugh64w by o08o.ugh64w Jul 15, 2014 9:41 AM Flag

    Now is the time to be buying these small banks during the summer doldrums (for banking stocks). This happens most every year. However, this year it is even more a time to be buying them in a big way. Interest rates will trend higher next year, and when that (finally) happens bank earnings increase! Most people are looking the other way and do not understand these basic concepts.

    In the mean time, slowly acquire shares if the trend lower. Diversify across multiple names. Look more towars book value and those trading near or below compared to those wildly above book value. Make exceptions for those carrying low debt loads, growing top/bottom line, and paying good/stable/increasing dividends. Lastly, those that are potential acquisition targets (like AROW) should be on the top of the list for accumulation.

  • o08o.ugh64w by o08o.ugh64w Jul 9, 2014 4:36 PM Flag

    Patient long time ULBI investors know how to play this.

    Earnings coming in 4 weeks (wink, wink)

    Company buyback is out there, however, since we are in the period between end of quarter and the earnings announcement, they won't be buying shares at this time. So, if there's rampant irrationality, the shares could fall a bit from here.

  • o08o.ugh64w by o08o.ugh64w Jul 2, 2014 4:58 PM Flag

    You are being given a rare opportunity to acquire shares of RIVR that will pay you 4.25% on your purchase today, and additionally see an appreciation of 20% to 40% in the next 6 to 12 months.

    I've seen similar happen with a below market priced share offering like this. It really stinks if you were holding prior to it, but BDGE did the same thing a short while ago. Insiders took the shares, and they quickly rebounded afterwards. You can see the Form 4 filings by insiders this afternoon taking shares.

    The dividend is very secure - it was just raised.

    Buy some shares now, if they happen to go lower then buy more. Again - it is a rare opportunity and the shares will likely rebound back to 52-week highs by year end.

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