it is definitely very important because if they pledged hpj shares they own as part of guarantee, the company would be seized by the banks in case of loan default, which means these guarantees don't really guarantee anything. They surely need to do more disclosures about the guarantees to investors.
It said very clearly the release date is Nov 6 after the market close but it didn't happen yet as of now. It may not have legal consequence, but I don't like this. A promise is a promise, especially about earnings release- I never take the ER release date lightly.
The ER should come out quickly as they should have been done by now but just need to be reviewed by auditor-the interim periods financials are not audited which take more time than a review. So there is really no reason they would not come out by end of November.
If the earnings are indeed strong enough to justify the share dilution due to acquisitions, and show NQ core business strong, buyers for sure will come back and push stock price to a much higher range, breaking $10 for sure.
Right now we have to face volatility at $6.80 and $7.5 range, given lots of open shorts interest. The stock now is on downward trend and great for day traders. Day traders may be caught up certain events but can cut their loss quickly. For buy and hold investors, this coming month is going to be a very tough period. But I strong believe if you are mentally tough enough to just hold and wait it out, you will reap big rewards, very very big rewards.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Recent price moves are all speculations and manipulations. Just keep in mind no fraud found by DT. NQ does have material weakness in internal control but by all means the company should do much better going forward.
Hold NQ strong.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
You have way underestimated the downside of HPJ from here. Keep in mind it was at $1-$2 range at the beginning of this year and now it is still up more than 400%. Expectations built into this stock were ultra high and when it comes to earnings, the pressure is huge.
Let us wait and see.
Based on its past two years record, I think HPJ should slight beat or be at top of its Q3 guidance-I would give it a 75% probability-if this happens, the stock may still slide to $5.5 range and may slide further if Q4 guiance is not bullish.
I would be very surprised of a miss and it would be a disaster to the stock price.
HPJ needs to beat Q3 guidance or significantly lifts its Q4 and whole year 2014 guidance to stay above $5.5. If its Q3 results and Q4 guidance are still in line with the guidance provided at Q2 earnings conf call, the stock will easily have a 30%-40% cut.
The worst case scenario is it misses its revenue guidance, that for sure will make the stock price collapse, more than 60%, not surprising, but I don't think it is likely.
I would consider any price above $5.50 in bullish zone. In case it goes down lower, we would need to be really careful.
It is just a matter of time. Right now the stock is overwhelmed by shorts. Keep in mind that a year from MW allegations, no fraud had been identified by external auditors. When you invest in such a company, it is all about looking into these hard facts and turning away from those noises. It is all about a mind game.
When NQ are eventually done with auditors, even with a qualified opinion but no fraud, it will go up to $15 level.
All you need to do in longing NQ is wait, with patience.
I think HPJ is doing great. Its management team is very stable and has been executing very well. No surprise that its stock price is climbing back to 1 year high level. The company's Li-ion battery business is taking off and its overall business has a very bright future.
However one definitely needs to be cautious chasing stock price spike with "exciting" news coming out: keep in mind that these are times that could hurt you most. One needs to look into its low gross margin and ROI, and even more important, its very high debt ratio. It needs to roll over its debt soon and keep in mind that debt market in China right now is not a pretty picture at all. HPJ may have to have another secondary offering before the year end and it certainly won't help its stock price in a short run.
Regardless, it is a great long term buy, even at the current price level.
Audit risk is high when an auditor signs up with a client with weak internal control, an incompetent staff, or an intent to cheat, or when an audit team is not capable or experienced enough to uncover potential issues. There are many many quality professionals in Big 4-as a matter of fact, they have most accounting and auditing elites in the world with them, but they also hire many fresh out of school yound inexperienced boys and girls doing the actual audit work, and if the senior associate, manager, or senior manager of the team is not experienced enough to identify the audit errors, a company can just get away with it-there is no way for a partner to find it otherwise if a senior manager didn't get it.
Don't be surprised that an auditor make mistakes, sometimes very serious mistakes. If you were an auditor, you could make the same kind of mistake PwC made.
Having said this, I still believe NQ had weak internal control as DT report indicated. Now its stock is in a very dire situation. But its business is not as bad as what MW alleged. NQ is right to take action on its audit committee. Hopefully it will get DT in asap to move it forward.
An auditor is concerned with audit risk and audit fee with its client. PwC is in an awkward position: Deloitte found some issues they didn't find as NQ auditors. PwC's audit risk is high, very high, at least perceived so by PwC itself. It needs to redo DT's work to prove the findings are accurate or not, and on top of it, need to go back to days when NQ was still private to find out whatever irregularities of numbers they audited. So it is not surprising that PwC may need at least 9-12 months to get its job done.
Any big 4 auditor would ask for the same thing, except for DT. It already spent 8 months in the investigation and should be very familiar with the company operations and financials. Any work from here would be built on this solid basis.
NQ management did a very bad job talking about "considering"-plainly stupid. If it didn't have any agreement, don't say anything. Next time I wish it talks something positive or at least constructive, like have PwC out and DT in as its auditor.
As DT confirmed no fraud, it is virtually impossible for PwC to find it otherwise. But because DT found significant internal control issues, PwC has to treat it very carefully. I have dealt with all these Big 4 auditors for many years-they are very good at accounting and auditing, but they are all very proud, sometimes so proud that they found it extremely difficult to admit they made mistakes, especially in this case-it is quite different from calling a quit to a fraud, instead, all these years PwC never announced these issues to the public-Maybe PwC just missed it, or has been aware of these issues to a certain extent but never considered it significant enough for an opinion other than an unqualified one.
Anyway, PwC is in a big dilemma now: it either has to justify why these issues are not significant enough to show in auditor's report, or has to explain among themselves why they made mistakes. I have gone through this process and I can assure you that it is very very time consuming, never short of finger pointing between partners in PwC, and lots of unreasonable requests from PwC could drive NQ management crazy.
My estimate is no annual filing anytime soon. But it will be either a fully clean opinion or a clean one with restatement. NQ price will go back to 15-20 for sure, but it will be a long wait.
MW always claim everything fraudulent...but the fact is nothing found...
Sentiment: Strong Buy
$1M quarterly revenue with $80M-$90M market cap? This company is a toast. Consider buying HPJ instead: sure there is debt default risk but the company has been rolling out new product and signing up with new customers so the risk should be controllable. Besides, it has been generating $30M quarterly revenue with a market cap around $50M-$60M-a good discounted value at this time.