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Johnson & Johnson Message Board

ob1kinob 5 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 19, 2014 10:33 AM Member since: Nov 4, 2011
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  • You need to read this. The author is dead on regarding how the introduction of MLM in the 2007/2008 timeframe into what had been a traditional direct selling Avon model immediately created a devastating downward spiral for Avon's sales. Jung ruined the compant by doing this but you can fix it.

  • Reply to

    HLF could provide the solution to AVP's falling revs

    by endabaus Oct 30, 2014 11:08 AM
    ob1kinob ob1kinob Oct 30, 2014 11:20 AM Flag

    Are you nuts? First, Avon is not a pyramid scheme whereas HLF is. Avon does not make a significant portion of its revenue off the backs of its sales reps like HLF does. If Avon started making more money off of it's reps they would leave in even larger droves than they are. Avon can only be fixed by selling relevant products in a relevant way. The current model is full of broken value propositions, especially in developed markets. Years ago Avon forgot that its key customer dempgraphic in developed markets are people with an annual income under $40,000. As it expanded its attempt to go more prestiege it forgot about its base. As it built a new glitzy R&D center, it forgot that its economic model depended on volume and low cost value. Innovation is just another word for useless overhead when your customers are nlot really willing to pay for it. That and a two week campaign cycle that was always a mistaken strategy.

  • Reply to

    Could shoot to 20$ in a heartbeat as a starter

    by user988200 Oct 20, 2014 1:27 PM
    ob1kinob ob1kinob Oct 23, 2014 2:31 PM Flag

    Balance sheets can be easily manipulated whereas Cash Flow cannot. So I prefer to look at Cash Flow. Avon's is down $167 MM and steadily trending worse over the past three years turning negative in most recent two years reported. Coty is half Avon's sales with the same positive $549 MM from operations as Avon in most recent reported year. Coty's overall cash has been positive last three years and steadily trending up. Coty is not trading at $20 as you projected Avon. So yes I do believe that Coty is worth $16 and Avon only worth $11.

  • Reply to

    Could shoot to 20$ in a heartbeat as a starter

    by user988200 Oct 20, 2014 1:27 PM
    ob1kinob ob1kinob Oct 23, 2014 10:32 AM Flag

    What Coty saw when it made its offer was a company that had 30% higher sales than today and steady growth engines in LATAM and EU. The picture is much worse today. The cash cow of NA continues a precipitous decline, China is a disaster and both LATAM and EU have stalled and moved negative. Ms McCoy has not gained one iota of traction in anything top line related. Anbody can cut their way to improved profits but until you generate sales and margin growth, you are not running this company, you are simply reacting. She's had her three years and whatever the strategy is obviously is not working. Third quarter earnings call will not be pretty. We will see $10 before we see $20 again.

  • Reply to

    Is AVP back on its rise?

    by stockcreep2 Sep 29, 2014 1:48 PM
    ob1kinob ob1kinob Sep 30, 2014 10:12 AM Flag

    When the Q3 earnings are announced, and if they are bad (pretty much a guarantee), if the stock does not move downward much, then that is a bottom.

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